April/May 2013 IAM Fleet Discussions

[ograc]

I apologize for reposting #405 but I believe the issue raised is very important to what members at both US and UA can expect going forward. With the recent rejection of the DL 141 TA at UA the IAM and the District is at a fork in the road. They must consider the rejection carefully, interpret it's meaning, and decide which path to take. For the game plans and the outcomes are substantially different. Based on the feedback I'm getting from the recent Chairperson's Conference attendees... they have chosen option 2.

 

[freedom]

Yes, your answer was to dodge the question. So when other people talk about economic issues it's fiction, but when Freedom talks about economic issues it's solid and well reasoned. Gonna write that down. 'kay, got it.

I didn't doge his question ... where do you think the pension money is ? In some giant vault where they chuck the cash in every Friday and withdraw as much as they need every week ?

Just like Life insurance , 401K's ect, The money that we give over to the pension is held in several different forms of securities ... Some of it is probably in money market accounts , Government treasuries , Stocks , bonds ... ect ..If these different asset classes fall , so too does the value of our pensions holdings .

 

[700UW]

There are strict rules on pensions and their funding, why dont you actually educate yourself instead of going of half-cocked with misinformation.

Prove the pension is unsound.

And yes you did dodge the question, you posted an opinion, not facts and the truth.

 

[cltrat]

I apologize for reposting #405 but I believe the issue raised is very important to what members at both US and UA can expect going forward. With the recent rejection of the DL 141 TA at UA the IAM and the District is at a fork in the road. They must consider the rejection carefully, interpret it's meaning, and decide which path to take. For the game plans and the outcomes are substantially different. Based on the feedback I'm getting from the recent Chairperson's Conference attendees... they have chosen option 2.

if that is truly the case then that is a glaring example of how out of touch that they truly are.

 

[cltrat]

There are strict rules on pensions and their funding, why dont you actually educate yourself instead of going of half-cocked with misinformation.

Prove the pension is unsound.

And yes you did dodge the question, you posted an opinion, not facts and the truth.

yes he did all we are all quite aware that his track record on financial issues is less than stellar.

 

[IAM Informer]

The last report on the pension by an independent agency said the pension is funded to 105%, how is that not sound?

Freedom, you really need to educate yourself, with each post you sound more foolish.

So the argument the trustees had about why the cut US pension almost in half was just a bunch of BS. Thanks for the update sure it will make the membership happy to know there pension is getting cut just because the can

 

[700UW]

The question should be why is fleet getting cut and not mechanic and related?

And what you have all ready had in the plan before the cut takes effect will be the full amount.

 

[ograc]

if that is truly the case then that is a glaring example of how out of touch that they truly are.

I'm hoping that is not the case but I fear it may be. I'm hoping others on this forum can provide first hand input on what the District's take is on the rejected TA. On another note... I view engaging in meaningless chatter with certain poster's credibility on this forum as a distraction from the credible issues that should be being discussed and considered. I would hope, going forward, posters who have a history of bringing factual information to the table, disengage with the distractions and the distractors.

 

[mike33]

I didn't doge his question ... where do you think the pension money is ? In some giant vault where they chuck the cash in every Friday and withdraw as much as they need every week ?

Just like Life insurance , 401K's ect, The money that we give over to the pension is held in several different forms of securities ... Some of it is probably in money market accounts , Government treasuries , Stocks , bonds ... ect ..If these different asset classes fall , so too does the value of our pensions holdings .

So what you are really saying is the institution holding our pension is not as secure as you holding your $$$ in a roth or 401k if the asset classes fail.....You and i are Rampers. We know squat compared to financial institutions.....if the IAMNPF were to fail we all wil lbe pushing Shopping carts. Including you!

 

[mike33]

So the argument the trustees had about why the cut US pension almost in half was just a bunch of BS. Thanks for the update sure it will make the membership happy to know there pension is getting cut just because the can

I dont know why i feel this but i think Informer is actually on the inside of the IAM and feeding information to certain people on the outside. Just my opinion of course!

 

[freedom]

So what you are really saying is the institution holding our pension is not as secure as you holding your $$$ in a roth or 401k if the asset classes fail.....You and i are Rampers. We know squat compared to financial institutions.....if the IAMNPF were to fail we all wil lbe pushing Shopping carts. Including you!

The pension doesn't have to fail ... and then of course what is failure defined as ? If the IAMPNF loses 25% of it's holdings in the future while 401K's and other classes lose 50% ... then our pension would be considered successful compared against other investment options ....

Really a lot of it depends on just what's in the IAMPNF books ... are they holding mostly high grade bonds ? Money market accounts , Government treasuries ?

I'm sure that they have made some VERY safe investment choices ...but i'm also fairly confident that their chasing yield ( you know growth on their investment , like the interest rate you get at the bank for your savings account ) ...However have you noticed that the percent back on most savings accounts is pitiful ? That's because the safer the investment , the less the yield is on your money ...

The higher the yield , the greater the risk ...Risk is bad when it comes to pensions ...but at the same time in order for the pension to offer us more money than what we're putting in today and it not be a straight savings account that pays you out only exactly what you put in ... They have to be growing the pensions funds SOMEHOW ...

So the question is how are they growing the pensions funds ?


What do all of you think will happen once the government stops supporting the economy via QE ?well i'll tell you , #### will hit the fan ... but to be honest , I don't see QE support coming to an end anytime soon ...

So the new question is , what will happen if the government continues to print money it doesn't have for years and years on end ? Inflation , hyper inflation , the devaluation of the dollar ? Worthless T notes ?

I'm sure some asset classes would rise in such a scenario such as property and metals ( gold/silver ) , also by "rise" , I of course mean maintain more of their value in a deprecating environment....( so everything is falling , but some things are falling less far than others )

i'm a simple baggage handler , but these are the questions that I wonder to myself about the pension ...Odds are that we have run of the mill investment types controlling the pension ... the same type of people who never saw the 2007 economic crisis coming ... The same types who simply cannot understand that our economy is in distress today , because it's hidden by the effects of QE ....

Just because the guys running the pension might have worked on wall street , or have some fancy degree from some big name college doesn't mean their better than we are ... We baggage handlers are real , we deal with the economy on a daily basis , we travel the country and the world , we talk to actual human beings that have to live their lives in the current economic climate .. we are the ultimate man on the street ..

 

[necigrad]

We're all rampers here (with a few exceptions). Very few of us have a good understanding of the markets. Even the people that say they do are most likely lying or misunderstanding what they know. There are a few exceptions (I know of at least one ramper who was a professional trader). The simple fact is that no matter how good you are, you will NEVER be as sucessful as the professionals that do thits in excess of 40 hours a week. I think I do all right; my 401(k) only lost 25% after 9/11 while most people saw their investments drop by over 50%. It's substantially higher now then it was in 2008 as well, and it's been pretty consistant in its returns.

The IAMNPF relies on professionals as well. Working within the confines of the law they will overall do a better job then you could ever hope to with your 401(k) or ETrade account. Odds are they also use mutual funds which have their own professionals managing the funds, so it's a double protection net. Yes, it's possibly for even a financial genius to get something wrong. Even Warren Buffet admits to mistakes. Your money is safer in the experts hands though. To say that you'd rather manage your own money then rely on a professional is just plan foolish.

 

[700UW]

http://www.youtube.com/IAMNPF

 

[Jester]

The IAMNPF relies on professionals as well. Working within the confines of the law they will overall do a better job then you could ever hope to with your 401(k) or ETrade account. Odds are they also use mutual funds which have their own professionals managing the funds, so it's a double protection net. Yes, it's possibly for even a financial genius to get something wrong. Even Warren Buffet admits to mistakes. Your money is safer in the experts hands though. To say that you'd rather manage your own money then rely on a professional is just plan foolish.

While I am not an accountant, as I generally loathe the professional, I recall my intermediate accounting classes, and the valuations of a pension plan and the degree of solvency was not a true or accurate measurement, even under ERISA restrictions.

From what I recall, it was related to estimating the future pension obligations without using traditional discounting cash flows, thereby understanding the true expected costs. This was permitted under a FASB ruling for the simple political reason that most pensions would be deemed insolvent with serious consequences on many companies' profitablity. (One reason I loathe accountants as they are more interested in following rules instead of dealing with reality.)

As a result, I am very suspect of any pension's claims of being able to handle all future obligations, and I think my cyncism's proof of our pension being cut back into the future suggest things are not as wonderful as the accountants would have us believe.

As a sidenote, #100 and less at PHX and start looking elsewhere you think? Thats about 30 flights a day? So much for me making an offer on some guy's McMansion who said he was moving to the Dallas area in the next few months.

 

[necigrad]

My #100 is a guess. I'm basing that on what happened to LAS, where we went from hub to focus city to station to assraping. I don't truly know what will happen in PHX. The people that I think are delusional might be right and PHX will be fine, or maybe even grow. It could change to a focus city, maybe as a secondary hub (behind DFW) to Mexico. Or it could go the way that LAS did. It will all depend on what Parker and Company decide the role of PHX will be long term.

I'm making an assumption of downsizing by eliminating most CONX traffic, then MX traffic. With that gone there will be no justification for many flights so they'll cut more. Personally I hope I'm wrong. PHX built AWA, and thus built what US has for a west coast presence. I'd hate for PSA to happen all over again. Unfortunatly we live in a world where business takes priority, not people (unless the people can make the business happen).