American Turn Around Plan

[Connected1]

[blockquote]
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On 2/23/2003 10:42:42 PM 410OhOne wrote:

Put the following in order of occurence:

1. Bankruptcy
2. Concessions
3. Massive Layoffs
4. UAL Liquidating
5. AMR Liquidating
6. WAR
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[/blockquote]
6 - coming soon to a desert near you
3 - force majeure
1 - too late for concessions
2 - unfortunate reality
3 - significant changes to work rules + pay cuts for all

Liquidation is unlikely in either case, as both airlines will be worth more if kept together in a post-concessionary environment.

 

[RV4]

[blockquote]
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On 2/24/2003 8:00:47 PM Connected1 wrote:

[blockquote]
----------------
On 2/23/2003 10:42:42 PM 410OhOne wrote:

Put the following in order of occurence:

1. Bankruptcy
2. Concessions
3. Massive Layoffs
4. UAL Liquidating
5. AMR Liquidating
6. WAR
----------------
[/blockquote]

I would go with list:

6 War
3 Massive Layoffs
2 Concessions
4 UAL Liquidating
5 USAIR Liqiudating
1 No Bankruptcy - A return to growth using concessions to get financing to purchase UAL and USAIR flight slots and RJ's to fly them.

 

[410OhOne]

[blockquote]
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bagsmasher wrote:

That was before 4-10-01. Now my dream is getting laid off, before AA goes under.
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[/blockquote]

What did I do?

410OhOne

 

[Winglet]

Since Mr. Bush's administration has no interest in the long term future of the US airline industry, there is only one plan that will help the US airline industry as a whole right now . . . and that is for 2 major carriers to shut the doors and decrease capacity.

If the public doesn't like the the aviation industry now, just wait 2 years from now when the economy recovers, demand booms, capacity is cut WAY back, employee compensation approaches Walmart levels, and ticket prices SKYROCKET and you can't even get a seat.

Mr. Bush's transportation/TSA people are unbelievably incompetent and/or unconcerned about the future. They'd probably like to farm out our whole industry to the Chinese at slave wages. The sad part is that the American public would think that's just fine as long as the tickets were cheap . . . at least until the airplanes started crashing.

 

[Segue]

[blockquote]
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On 2/25/2003 1025 AM Winglet wrote:

They'd probably like to farm out our whole industry to the Chinese at slave wages. The sad part is that the American public would think that's just fine as long as the tickets were cheap . . . at least until the airplanes started crashing.

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[/blockquote]

Just like all of those Southwest planes crashing!

 

[kirkpatrick]

[blockquote]
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On 2/26/2003 3:39:07 PM Segue wrote:

Just like all of those Southwest planes crashing!

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[/blockquote]

They're good, but they're also lucky. Give them time.

MK

 

[RV4]

[blockquote]
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On 2/25/2003 1025 AM Winglet wrote:

Since Mr. Bush's administration has no interest in the long term future of the US airline industry, there is only one plan that will help the US airline industry as a whole right now . . . and that is for 2 major carriers to shut the doors and decrease capacity.

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[/blockquote]

That is a foolish statement!

Reduction of capacity is the answer to the long term interest of the industry. Government handouts to keep airlines from being victims of common supply vs. demand economics is NOT the answer. Continued flight of seats that lose cash on the profit/margin calcualtion is NOT the answer. Some of you guys that are anti-Bush sure have a stange way of communicating such feelings.

Tap your heals together three times and repeat after me...

WE LIVE IN CAPITALIST SOCIETY NOT A SOCIALIST SOCIETY!

GOVERNMENT IS NOT KING, FREEDOM IS!

 

[RV4]

[blockquote]
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On 2/25/2003 1025 AM Winglet wrote:

Mr. Bush's transportation/TSA people are unbelievably incompetent and/or unconcerned about the future. They'd probably like to farm out our whole industry to the Chinese at slave wages. The sad part is that the American public would think that's just fine as long as the tickets were cheap . . . at least until the airplanes started crashing.

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[/blockquote]


Dont single out the TSA people for incompetence, look towards the liberal backed government/union controlled public school system that is to blame.

Have some of your friendly politicians allow some form of parental choice and competition in our lower education system and then you wont have to watch your society degraded into more incompetent and unconcerned, handout seeking fools!

Airplanes crashing? Is that another factless use of fear to make a point?

 

[RV4]

[blockquote]
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On 2/25/2003 1025 AM Winglet wrote:

If the public doesn't like the the aviation industry now, just wait 2 years from now when the economy recovers, demand booms, capacity is cut WAY back, employee compensation approaches Walmart levels, and ticket prices SKYROCKET and you can't even get a seat.

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[/blockquote]


You really don't think that capacity would also return and rise with demand?

FEAR! FEAR! FEAR! The Redcoats are coming!

 

[Winglet]

These knucklehead CEOs have no intention of paying Southwest wages. They intend to pay a lot less. In addtion they are going to gut scope and farm out jobs at will whenever their lapdog unions won't roll over. Make no doubt about it, the industry sees this as their big chance to kill labor once and for all . . . and they might just succeed with the Republicans in power.

Southwest people make good money. I think their mechanics make more than AMR's do now.

Southwest wages are going to be the industry leading, but you can be sure that SWA is going to lean on their people too.

Even now the FAA's oversight of the aviation industry and maintenance in particular is seriously in question. With mechanics having relatively portable skills and able to make much better money in something other than aviation, I expect the best ones to bail-out, and the ones that are left will be demoralized and driven even harder by management. That is not a good combination.

Further, even if demand picks up, I think the airlines will be loath spend the huge capital on expansion, having been burnt so badly the last couple of years. You can bet on prices going WAY up, airplanes crammed with seats, less frequency, and pissed-off workers.

As far as safety goes, crew rest periods, duty day length, etc are going to get even more onerous. Right now the FAA mandates domestic reserve pilots have defined rest periods, however, international pilots are on-call 24 hours a day to fly up to 12 hour flights that might begin after a pilot has been up all day. Guess what? The airlines don't give a s**t because the inane FAA doesn't address rest periods for international reserve pilots. Keep that in mind that when you're flying over the Atlantic in the middle of the night, that one of your pilot's may have been awake for 18 hours already. . . and the flight's not even half over.

RV4, you obviously don't know much about the ability of the airline industry or it's ability to react quickly to changes in demand. Two years ago, AMR couldn't hire enough pilots. The school house was going at FULL capacity and new airplanes were being delivered, and that wasn't enough. We're not selling gumballs and airplanes and crews don't come out of 25 cent machines . . . well, not yet anyway.

I understand your republican agenda . . . screw labor. Did you buddies at Enron and Worldcom tutor you?

BTW, I'm not a liberal either. I dislike most democrat politicians as much as weasle-talking republicans. That's why I resigned from the republican party.