American gets Delta's Haneda slot

[MAH4546]

So this just happened.
 
Delta has notified DOT that the slot will be forfeited effective October 1st, 2015. 
 
The forfeiture means the slot us automatically allocated to American Airlines to begin Los Angeles-Haneda. 

 

[commavia]

And ... boom goes the dynamite.

 

[jimntx]

Ouch!  That's gonna hurt.

 

[AANOTOK]

Would imagine WT is on the "red" phone right now with Anderson getting the details.

 

[jimntx]

Here's the spin.  Dullta was treated wrongly by being forced to operate the route from SEA.  They should have been allowed to try different airports--including LAX--until they found one that worked.

 

[eolesen]

Nah, the spin will be that AA is doomed to fly empty airplanes because DL forced them to start up the route in the slow season.

 

[strangiatotheme]

Popcorn for breakfast...this should be a wonderful thread.

 

[WorldTraveler]

It simply says that HND service is highly variable in seasonality, DL played by the rules to get the route originally, retained that right, and has now decided it isn't worth keeping the flight as well as LAX-HND going into the fall and winter.

As much as some thought AA was going to RIP the HND slot from DL's hands, DL made a COMMERCIALLY BASED decision on what was best and acted accordingly.

AA will now be forced to start LAX-HND going into the winter from LAX against two other carriers that already operate the route.

Further, if AA goes ahead and cancels its LAX-NRT flight - as they indicated before they would do - AA doesn't gain much and DL might actually end up better off since it currently carries significantly more revenue per passenger. IN the 4th quarter of 2014, DL's average fare for LAX-NRT was 60% higher than AA and its total LAX-NRT revenue was 83% higher than AA's.
Further, DL's LAX-HND average fare is higher than LAX-NRT so AA might be banking on getting higher average fares from HND but there is no certainty that they won't trail DL from HND just as they have from NRT.

FInally, DL is using the 763ER to HND but they very well could put a larger aircraft including the 333 on LAX-HND which has only marginally higher trip costs and a CASM as low as or lower than anything AA flies.

So let's see the next steps of how this plays out but if AA drops LAX-NRT - while the yen continues to climb compared to even a year ago - and DL upgrades LAX-HND, then it might not be the huge victory that some might think it will be.

 

[commavia]

Nah, the spin will be that AA is doomed to fly empty airplanes because DL forced them to start up the route in the slow season.

 
Nailed it.  Is it sad, or scary, or funny that these things are so predictable?

 

[WorldTraveler]

so, what spin will you pull out when AA pulls LAX-NRT?

you do realize that all of the "growth" that you have hailed for AA including this have been simply swaps of routes and or flights or something that DL will fly eventually, including LAX-MEX? Of course you realize it whether you are capable of admitting it or not.

AA still underperforms DL from LAX to NRT. would you like to make a prediction as to when AA will reach revenue parity with DL on LAX to Tokyo revenue and average fares?

Come on, big boy. This is the great win you have been hoping for and gloating about.

Tell us when we can expect AA to generate revenues on par with DL.

 

[commavia]

My "spin" will be that unlike with SEA-TYO, AA recognized - rightly - that there was absolutely no need to saturate the LAX-TYO market with excess seats solely to prove the point that it can run two daily flights between the same two metro areas.  And, luckily for AA, it actually has a Japanese JV partner who already operates LAX-NRT as well, so between the two of them, they can each now operate one daily flight in the market, each to a different airport, and maintain a broader schedule presence without dumping tons of excess seats into an already-crowded market.
 
Not spin - just reality.

 

[WorldTraveler]

so you are conceding that AA will probably drop LAX-NRT? I thought so.

and as with JFK-Tokyo, you will argue that a JV presence is enough although in this case AA will have its own metal into HND.

This isn't a great victory. It is simply rearranging AA's LAX operation - again - by shifting assets around.

LAX-NRT has clearly been an underperformer and AA will pull capacity from NRT in order to give HND a try - something that JL might be able to help with on the other end.

there's the reality.

AA is not growing LAX near as much as reallocating assets.

 

[dariencc]

It simply says that HND service is highly variable in seasonality, DL played by the rules to get the route originally, retained that right, and has now decided it isn't worth keeping the flight as well as LAX-HND going into the fall and winter.

As much as some thought AA was going to RIP the HND slot from DL's hands, DL made a COMMERCIALLY BASED decision on what was best and acted accordingly.

AA will now be forced to start LAX-HND going into the winter from LAX against two other carriers that already operate the route.

Further, if AA goes ahead and cancels its LAX-NRT flight - as they indicated before they would do - AA doesn't gain much and DL might actually end up better off since it currently carries significantly more revenue per passenger. IN the 4th quarter of 2014, DL's average fare for LAX-NRT was 60% higher than AA and its total LAX-NRT revenue was 83% higher than AA's.
Further, DL's LAX-HND average fare is higher than LAX-NRT so AA might be banking on getting higher average fares from HND but there is no certainty that they won't trail DL from HND just as they have from NRT.

FInally, DL is using the 763ER to HND but they very well could put a larger aircraft including the 333 on LAX-HND which has only marginally higher trip costs and a CASM as low as or lower than anything AA flies.

So let's see the next steps of how this plays out but if AA drops LAX-NRT - while the yen continues to climb compared to even a year ago - and DL upgrades LAX-HND, then it might not be the huge victory that some might think it will be.

 
Are you mental?

 

[700UW]

 
Are you mental?

You really had to ask that?

 

[dfw gen]

 
Are you mental?

ah that would be yes.