AA enters LAX -ATL

[WorldTraveler]

and in the CURRENT, NEAR term, DL has 99% of the seats that PMAA has.

Feel free to explain to us how DL can manage to push so many more passengers thru its "tiny little" facility than AA.

what happens years from now won't matter if the market has been won before then.

and, it is entirely possible that AA and DL can both win in LAX at the expense of UA and WN, both of whom are seeing their seat shares go down.

add in that DL appears to be the only carrier that is developing and growing dual hubs on the west coast so that what happens in LAX might be a lot less significant than the total situation on the west coast.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

and in the CURRENT, NEAR term, DL has 99% of the seats that PMAA has.

 
Aren't qualifiers/disclaimers combined with selective data great?  Especially when they allow you to push your narrative and draw flawed conclusions.

 

[WorldTraveler]

there are no qualifiers or disclaimers in noting that DL has grown to virtually the same size that AA was before the merger.

IOW, if it weren't for the merger and the seats that US brought to the merger from LAX, DL would on parity with AA at LAX.

The reason why AA is growing as aggressively in LAX now is because they know what happened in NYC when they didn't take DL seriously - and which I pointed out many, many times.

When you factor in that DL still has the ability to upgrade a number of flights from LAX to mainline aircraft, it is very possible that DL could overtake AA long before AA has access to any more gates.

given that the size of carriers absolutely translates into increased pricing power, those who thought that AA would run away from the crowd with the LAX market or that DL is down for the count might be in for quite a surprise.

 

[robbedagain]

Yep just another prime example of DL can do it better that anyone else. 99% of us most likely dont give a dam who can do it better bec 99% of us are sick n tired of hearing the same ole bs garbage of DL can do it better than anyone else

 

[MAH4546]

and in the CURRENT, NEAR term, DL has 99% of the seats that PMAA has.

Feel free to explain to us how DL can manage to push so many more passengers thru its "tiny little" facility than AA.

what happens years from now won't matter if the market has been won before then.

and, it is entirely possible that AA and DL can both win in LAX at the expense of UA and WN, both of whom are seeing their seat shares go down.

add in that DL appears to be the only carrier that is developing and growing dual hubs on the west coast so that what happens in LAX might be a lot less significant than the total situation on the west coast.

 
No, in the current, NEAR term, AA is about 16% larger than DL. AA will also be announcing further LAX expansion by year's end which will probably bring LA to 210-220 daily flights in S15, compared to DL's 165ish.  
 
Delta is tapped out at LAX; AA has eight more gates on tap within the next 16 months (is that near term enough for you, or are we qualifying things again?), plus the Eagle facility is only at 60-65% capacity and AA will continue to push more large RJs to LAX and phase out the Skywest CRJ-200 flying. And not to mention that with all international flying shifting to TBIT in early 2016, AA will get a lot better utilization out of it's domestic gates in T4. 
 
Plus, it now has an additional gate to itself at it's own terminal with gate 41 now reopened as of three weeks ago, which it used to share with Qantas before that gate closed in the spring. 
 
It no longer has a gate crunch at LAX and it is absolutely in a position to be operating a ~300 daily operation (that's about the size of UA's SF ops) by the end of the decade without having to worry about DL or UA trying to catch up, because they physically cannot. 

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Long-term gate holdings at LAX (LDV can correct me, these are from memory):
 
AA - 34
UA - 20
DL - 16
 
AA doesn't have carte blanche, but it has facilities that LAX needs demolished for it to continue it's modernization product. That is how AA got the TBIT gates it moves into in 2016; that's how AA got first dibs on the T6 gates it moves into in 12 days; that's how AA got the Eagle gates to be redefined as mainline so it can trade them in from mainline gates when available; that is how AA got a connector between T4 and TBIT; and that's how AA will work to gain more access to gates at an advantage over UA/DL/etc.

Did Delta dump much of what WAL had?

I would think that WAL had a big presence there. Disclaimer...I did no research before posting this conjecture.

 

[WorldTraveler]

you've told us for years that DL was tapped out at LAX and wouldn't and couldn't do anything else and yet they keep growing.

if AA can come up with 8 more gates, confirmation please, that can be used for mainline growth, then they should go for it.

but nearly ALL of DL's gates are mainline capable... far from where AA is....

and it still doesn't change that even by your statements, AA is building LAX as a HUB. DL is building LAX much more as a point to point operation. DL doesn't need LAX to be a hub other than for the unique markets that are served only from LAX. LAX is and will be one of two large hubs on the west coast and one of 3 gateways to Asia on the west coast.

and even if AA does grow more than DL does in the local LAX market, AA and DL are both benefitting from UA's pulldown.

but you are still counting a whole lot on events which haven't even transpired while failing to note that DL's growth rate is still far higher than AA's.

and the 15-16% size advantage that AA has over DL is the size of US' operations at LAX - which incidentally cannot fit into AA's facilities unless you use a large portion of the 4 gates in T6.

no, Q, DL has the same terminal that WA started to rebuild. DL has acquired gates in T6 so DL's facility spreads between T5 and 6.

 

[FWAAA]

Wasn't there a tussle between LAWA (LAX airport agency - part of City of LA) and Delta when DL was in Ch 11? I seem to recall that LAWA wanted to reclaim some of T-5, but I don't recall the specifics. DL has expanded its LAX operation signficantly in the past 7-8 years.

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, there was. DL's whole deal of adding a bunch of small RJ flights at the terminal was merely a strategy to keep LAWA from taking the gates. It worked although many people still think that was just another attempt by DL to grow LAX which did not work out. on another occasion, DL added a lot of LAX redeye flying to also push up its flight count and push down its overall costs using aircraft that would otherwise sit for the night at LAX and other cities, largely on the east coast.

DL has indeed built up LAX including by moving the NW operation from the north side of the airport into T5.

There is not a shortage of gates at LAX; there is a shortage of gates on the south side of the airport where AA, DL, and UA are all located. there are a lot of gates on the north side which are used by int'l airlines and can be used for domestic operations as long as the int'l carriers move to the TBIT.

it is simply fanciful to think that AA can grow unbridled but no one else can or will have any interest in doing so.

given that AA and DL are both aggressively growing LAX and appear very much focused on increasing the size of their own networks there, it is doubtful that either will slow down any time soon.

for every market that AA chooses to enter that matters to DL, there are equally as many if not more that are important to AA.

ATL won't be the last major DL market that AA will enter nor will DL's service to DFW stop at 4 E1 75s per day. the significance is that both markets are the top markets for each carrier and both competitors have decided that crossing the line is acceptable at this point.

 

[topDawg]

; that's how AA got first dibs on the T6 gates it moves into in 12 days; 

No it didn't. United still have the lease for T6 gates (they just signed it as part of the agreement for Terminal 7/8. As part of the lease United got the ability to sub-lease......you guess it 4 Terminal 6 gates and back-off space.) If AA had gotten direct control of those gates then they would have a (public) lease with LAWA. 
 
AA's first right didn't kick in in this case. They were just willing to pay more (and made that deal for ORD gates magically at the same time)   
 
 
Oh and Delta has 18 gates. 15 at Terminal 5 and 3 at Terminal 6. (68A 68B 69A) AS does use two of the Terminal 6 gates sometimes though (68A and 69A) 68B is the gate Delta normally uses for the NRT flight. 

Did Delta dump much of what WAL had?

I would think that WAL had a big presence there. Disclaimer...I did no research before posting this conjecture.

Delta had about 220 flights at its peak with about 3 less gates than they have now. Delta runs a higher flight per day per gate usage in Atlanta than they do in LA. They know how to get every last bit out of a gate as well as anyone.  
 
Delta can probably flex up to 180 or so daily flights (10 or so flights per day per gate) in the foot print they have now. 
 

Wasn't there a tussle between LAWA (LAX airport agency - part of City of LA) and Delta when DL was in Ch 11? I seem to recall that LAWA wanted to reclaim some of T-5, but I don't recall the specifics. DL has expanded its LAX operation signficantly in the past 7-8 years.

Yeah. Long and short of it Delta didn't want to pay the bonds on the terminal but didn't want LAWA to have control over the terminal. Also Delta was under using the terminal. LAWA wanted to move AS in with Delta so AS could use the T5 FIS. 
 
LAWA did end up getting control of T5 but signed a long term lease with Delta for T5 and three T6 gates. 

 

[MAH4546]

I have absolutely not been saying that Delta is "tapped out" for years. I have only been saying that lately, and it is, in fact, just about tapped out. 
 
Not sure what confirmation you need AA is getting eight more gates. It moves into four of them on October 27th, and the other four are part of it's settlement agreement with LAX and will be in TBIT starting in early 2016.
 
All of AA's gates are indeed not mainline capable, which sucks, but it still has more mainline capable gates than Delta has gates, and will be able to trade those regional gates for mainline gates when they become available. 
 
But sure, let's live in WT's fantasy world where Delta can keep with AA in LAX. 

 

[737823]

MAH, looks like DL is pulling frequency LAX-BOS. Guess they are uncompetitive with AA in that market too.

Josh

 

[WorldTraveler]

it's a seasonal reduction, Josh.

We can decide by a week from tomorrow who better manages their network for profitability.

this "game" isn't about throwing seats out there that can't be profitably flown.

however, DL is growing their schedule from BOS more than any other airline except for DL's Skyteam partners AZ and AF beginning in November.

With new flights and the upgraded Shuttle to LGA, DL will be offering 11.4% more seats from BOS than they did a year ago.

back to LAX.

As dawg notes, DL is not tapped out and has considerably more growth capacity at LAX even using the gates they have... and DL is as interested in gaining access to further gates as AA is - and as much as you want to think otherwise, stands as good of a chance of succeeding.

further, DL most definitely has the ability to upgauge flights at LAX... DL already carries more passenger per flight from LAX than AA or UA, due in large part to the fact that DL has mainline aircraft on 80% of its flights.

so, DL can and will grow at LAX as long as there is a market to do so. And if there isn't a viable market, AA won't be making any money growing either.... but then making money hasn't been their goal in Asia.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

Are you never not on here?

 

[WorldTraveler]

yeah... when I am not