AA and US merger?

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AMR Mutes Takeover Risk With Record $4.1 Billion Bankruptcy Cash
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By Mary Schlangenstein and Mary Jane Credeur - Dec 5, 2011 12:01 AM ET

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AMR Corp. (AMR)’s $4.1 billion in cash, the most ever for a U.S. carrier entering bankruptcy, may help the parent of American Airlines preserve its independence.
Filing for Chapter 11 with that much in cash and short-term investments strengthened the third-largest U.S. airline company’s control over its fate, unlike peers that restructured in the last decade, said James M. Higgins, an analyst at New York-based Ticonderoga Securities LLC.
“Anytime you have your hand out to someone else for something, you lose some power,” Higgins said in an interview. “By doing it this way and by doing it now, they are going to retain more power over the process.”
Companies in Chapter 11 protection usually need so-called debtor-in-possession financing from sources that can force a sale or limit how the money is spent. Tapping that funding would weaken AMR against an acquirer such as US Airways Group Inc. (LCC), which tried to buy Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) in bankruptcy in 2006, said Hunter Keay, a Wolfe Trahan & Co. analyst in New York.
AMR’s creditors are scheduled to meet today in New York, and a U.S. trustee in the case eventually will select a committee to represent them. The next bankruptcy hearing is set for Dec. 13.
The company expects to have enough cash to fund operations during its entire time in bankruptcy, and outside financing is “neither considered necessary nor anticipated,” according to a statement after Fort Worth, Texas-based AMR sought court protection on Nov. 29.
Rivals’ Cash
Cash and short-term investments under the Chapter 11 filing were more than twice the $1.5 billion for Delta and Northwest Airlines Corp. when they sought court protection in 2005. US Airways Group had $1.45 billion in 2004, and United Airlines (UAL) parent UAL Corp. had $800 million in 2002.
AMR’s total also was about 17 percent of trailing 12-month revenue, compared with 10 percent to 13 percent for other U.S. airlines when they filed bankruptcy, Keay and Philip Baggaley, a Standard & Poor’s debt analyst in New York, said in interviews.
US Airways, the fifth-largest U.S. airline, has been cited by analysts as the most likely suitor for AMR, and the Tempe, Arizona-based company’s shares surged 20 percent in the week that ended Dec. 2, the biggest such gain since May 28, 2010. A spokesman, Todd Lehmacher, declined to comment.
“Speculation on any possible mergers under our Chapter 11 reorganization are just that,” said Sean Collins, an American spokesman. “We have no comment on such speculation.”
‘Anything Can Happen’
Chief Executive Officer Tom Horton, who was president until succeeding Gerard Arpey after AMR’s filing, wouldn’t comment when asked about US Airways on a Nov. 29 conference call with reporters.
“Anything can happen,” Horton said of a possible takeover attempt. “It’s impossible to speculate. Our objective is to be laser focused on changes we need to make to make this company successful for the long term.”
US Airways is the product of a 2005 merger of America West Holdings Corp. and the old US Airways when that carrier was in Chapter 11. American sat out the industry consolidation that saw Delta buy Northwest in 2008 once those carriers left bankruptcy, and United merge with Continental Airlines Inc. in 2010.
The threat of an attempted takeover would rise if AMR seeks DIP financing because the lender could “dictate what is happening,” said Wolfe Trahan’s Keay. He sees even odds on whether American will need such financing during its time in court protection.
Expecting a Bid
Jeff Straebler, an independent aviation analyst in Stamford, Connecticut, said he “fully expects” US Airways will try to take over American while it’s in bankruptcy.
“AMR’s management has turned aside such speculation in the past,” S&P’s Baggaley said in a Dec. 2 report. “If AMR can control its own fate in this regard, we do not see bankruptcy changing its view in bankruptcy.”
The carrier’s likeliest sources for more cash in Chapter 11 would be companies with which it already has a relationship, said Will Randow, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. (C) in New York. American used about $1 billion cash in the third quarter and about $500 million since then, Randow said, making him skeptical of the airline’s assertions of having sufficient cash.
Citigroup, the credit-card partner for American’s AAdvantage loyalty program, would be “highly likely” to help with financing if AMR asks, Straebler said. New York-based Citigroup helped American raise $1 billion in 2009 through the advance purchase of frequent-flier miles.
Creditor Status
A Citigroup spokeswoman, Danielle Romero-Apsilos, declined to comment. Citibank is AMR’s fourth-biggest secured creditor, owed $890.2 million by the company, according to bankruptcy documents.
AMR could use assets including flight slots and gates at certain U.S. airports, spare parts and engines, ground support equipment and its corporate headquarters as collateral, Straebler said.
The timing of the filing surprised analysts such as S&P’s Baggaley, who had said AMR’s cash consumption might force the company into Chapter 11 in 2012, not this year.
Israel Shaked, a professor at Boston University School of Management whose Michel-Shaked Group consulting firm advised Delta during its bankruptcy, said AMR “did the right thing” in going to court last week.
“Filing was very smart because they still sit on $4 billion in cash,” Shaked said. “Some other airlines waited way too long.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Mary Schlangenstein in Dallas at [email protected]; Mary Jane Credeur in Atlanta at [email protected]
 
Actually AA employees have gotten raises. Actually they make a far better living than "U". I guess that kind of explains your merger fantasy's. Kind of hard to explain the low turn down rate for recalls.

The only benefit would be to the US people and only for a short time.

And what do you think will happen to those raises now that you are in Chapter 11? I mean, you do know your company is restructuring under court supervision? Or don't you?
 
Thats why you are all over here with your big dreams of working for AA. You dont have to say it out right, your constant posts to the matter speak volumes.
Not really. I'm actually an ex TWA employee and I do not wish to work for AA. I turned down the recall in 2008 and I am so glad I did. Good Luck [edited]
 
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AMR Mutes Takeover Risk With Record $4.1 Billion Bankruptcy Cash
Q
By Mary Schlangenstein and Mary Jane Credeur - Dec 5, 2011 12:01 AM ET

inShare
More Print Email
AMR Corp. (AMR)’s $4.1 billion in cash, the most ever for a U.S. carrier entering bankruptcy, may help the parent of American Airlines preserve its independence.
Filing for Chapter 11 with that much in cash and short-term investments strengthened the third-largest U.S. airline company’s control over its fate, unlike peers that restructured in the last decade, said James M. Higgins, an analyst at New York-based Ticonderoga Securities LLC.
“Anytime you have your hand out to someone else for something, you lose some power,” Higgins said in an interview. “By doing it this way and by doing it now, they are going to retain more power over the process.”
Companies in Chapter 11 protection usually need so-called debtor-in-possession financing from sources that can force a sale or limit how the money is spent. Tapping that funding would weaken AMR against an acquirer such as US Airways Group Inc. (LCC), which tried to buy Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) in bankruptcy in 2006, said Hunter Keay, a Wolfe Trahan & Co. analyst in New York.
AMR’s creditors are scheduled to meet today in New York, and a U.S. trustee in the case eventually will select a committee to represent them. The next bankruptcy hearing is set for Dec. 13.
The company expects to have enough cash to fund operations during its entire time in bankruptcy, and outside financing is “neither considered necessary nor anticipated,” according to a statement after Fort Worth, Texas-based AMR sought court protection on Nov. 29.
Rivals’ Cash
Cash and short-term investments under the Chapter 11 filing were more than twice the $1.5 billion for Delta and Northwest Airlines Corp. when they sought court protection in 2005. US Airways Group had $1.45 billion in 2004, and United Airlines (UAL) parent UAL Corp. had $800 million in 2002.
AMR’s total also was about 17 percent of trailing 12-month revenue, compared with 10 percent to 13 percent for other U.S. airlines when they filed bankruptcy, Keay and Philip Baggaley, a Standard & Poor’s debt analyst in New York, said in interviews.
US Airways, the fifth-largest U.S. airline, has been cited by analysts as the most likely suitor for AMR, and the Tempe, Arizona-based company’s shares surged 20 percent in the week that ended Dec. 2, the biggest such gain since May 28, 2010. A spokesman, Todd Lehmacher, declined to comment.
“Speculation on any possible mergers under our Chapter 11 reorganization are just that,” said Sean Collins, an American spokesman. “We have no comment on such speculation.”
‘Anything Can Happen’
Chief Executive Officer Tom Horton, who was president until succeeding Gerard Arpey after AMR’s filing, wouldn’t comment when asked about US Airways on a Nov. 29 conference call with reporters.
“Anything can happen,” Horton said of a possible takeover attempt. “It’s impossible to speculate. Our objective is to be laser focused on changes we need to make to make this company successful for the long term.”
US Airways is the product of a 2005 merger of America West Holdings Corp. and the old US Airways when that carrier was in Chapter 11. American sat out the industry consolidation that saw Delta buy Northwest in 2008 once those carriers left bankruptcy, and United merge with Continental Airlines Inc. in 2010.
The threat of an attempted takeover would rise if AMR seeks DIP financing because the lender could “dictate what is happening,” said Wolfe Trahan’s Keay. He sees even odds on whether American will need such financing during its time in court protection.
Expecting a Bid
Jeff Straebler, an independent aviation analyst in Stamford, Connecticut, said he “fully expects” US Airways will try to take over American while it’s in bankruptcy.
“AMR’s management has turned aside such speculation in the past,” S&P’s Baggaley said in a Dec. 2 report. “If AMR can control its own fate in this regard, we do not see bankruptcy changing its view in bankruptcy.”
The carrier’s likeliest sources for more cash in Chapter 11 would be companies with which it already has a relationship, said Will Randow, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. (C) in New York. American used about $1 billion cash in the third quarter and about $500 million since then, Randow said, making him skeptical of the airline’s assertions of having sufficient cash.
Citigroup, the credit-card partner for American’s AAdvantage loyalty program, would be “highly likely” to help with financing if AMR asks, Straebler said. New York-based Citigroup helped American raise $1 billion in 2009 through the advance purchase of frequent-flier miles.
Creditor Status
A Citigroup spokeswoman, Danielle Romero-Apsilos, declined to comment. Citibank is AMR’s fourth-biggest secured creditor, owed $890.2 million by the company, according to bankruptcy documents.
AMR could use assets including flight slots and gates at certain U.S. airports, spare parts and engines, ground support equipment and its corporate headquarters as collateral, Straebler said.
The timing of the filing surprised analysts such as S&P’s Baggaley, who had said AMR’s cash consumption might force the company into Chapter 11 in 2012, not this year.
Israel Shaked, a professor at Boston University School of Management whose Michel-Shaked Group consulting firm advised Delta during its bankruptcy, said AMR “did the right thing” in going to court last week.
“Filing was very smart because they still sit on $4 billion in cash,” Shaked said. “Some other airlines waited way too long.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Mary Schlangenstein in Dallas at [email protected]; Mary Jane Credeur in Atlanta at [email protected]

This is a great post. Nobody knows how this will play out in the end.
 
Thats why you are all over here with your big dreams of working for AA. You dont have to say it out right, your constant posts to the matter speak volumes.

No actually I'm over here because I have a fetish for cyber-delusion. And you are satisfying it. :)
 
And what do you think will happen to those raises now that you are in Chapter 11? I mean, you do know your company is restructuring under court supervision? Or don't you?

Who knows, they maybe traded, maybe kept and other things changed. Either way AA is in a far better position than "U" no matter how you look at it.
 
Who knows, they maybe traded, maybe kept and other things changed. Either way AA is in a far better position than "U" no matter how you look at it.

Ok son if you think so. Right now US is not in Chapter 11 and you are, so that negates your statement of your being in a better position right now. We'll turn a profit this year and you won't. I will see some kind of profit sharing. You won't. As you get raped by your company during this process come to me in 6 months to a year and let's hear how cocky you are about your "better position" relative to us. No one knows the end game to all of this, but once again, while navigating your way through this end game I suggest for your mental health that you invest in a delicious carton of vanilla ice cream with a slice of piping hot humble pie and reflect on your AArogance and the fact that life can change on the drop of a dime. But that if you are to successfully navigate that change, that you too are going to have to change and to put to rest all prior hegemonies and and beliefs that once informed you at AA. While you are a major player, you are a vulnerable player, subject to the vagaries of the courts and creditors who will ultimately determine your sad fate. Good luck and Bon Apetit!
 
Who knows, they maybe traded, maybe kept and other things changed. Either way AA is in a far better position than "U" no matter how you look at it.
Pan Am, Eastern,Braniff,TWA, Tower Air were all in Great Position at 1 time.where are they today? Keep drinking the AA Kool Aid.
 
Glad to hear that you are willing to back up your beliefs with a promise, ETOPS1. The rest of those will just be speaking hot air… if they are right, they are fine but really no commitment to being right or wrong….
Vaughn Cordle clearly wants a solution that doesn’t see pilot pay permanently reduced which could be an outcome of the AA BK. HE and others hold onto the hope that AA plus US will create value that will force airline employee salaries up but that is far from certain to happen, mostly because the supposed benefits from an AA-US combination are far less clear than they were for DL-NW or UA-CO, both of whom have paid or will throw money at labor in order to buy labor peace. WN-FL shows that mergers can happen while not significantly changing pay rates for both groups. With less revenue benefit from a proposed AA-US merger, there will be less potential to increase pay.
And of course there is the reality that acquiring AA is US’ last ditch effort to change its own fortunes. Despite acquiring several airlines and having a privileged position in a number of key airports including limited access LGA and DCA, US has not translated those mergers or market position into a revenue advantage.. in fact, US’ current network produces a revenue shortfall relative to its peers.
It is very much a possibility that if US fails to reorganize and AA returns to becoming a viable competitor – and they well have costs well below US’ – that US will be the surplus airline that cannot compete. As a higher cost competitor with an inferior product, being “outside” of the alliance picture (no JVs), and the smallest/no presence in Latin America or Asia, US could be considered the unnecessary network carrier and unable to generate sufficient revenue, be sold off in pieces.
There are a whole lot of people who have financial interest in US’ desire to buy AA… you need only look at the financial motivations and then each perspective makes sense.
US is bargaining that AA will be the surplus capacity in the industry – but the chances are far more likely that AA will restructure and leave US in that position. It is possible that you could have one “niche” network carrier that are less than the size of DL and UA, but there won’t be two… and it still comes down to that a combined AA/US is still a niche carrier and doesn’t strategically measure up against DL or UA.
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Bigbusboy,
Your arguments still attempt to focus on the east coast – and your perspective of looking at total number of hubs doesn’t factor in the revenue that those hubs produce.
First, any US/AA combination still does nothing w/ the west coast or Asia, areas that DL and/or UA have advantages. UA has the west coast taken care of – but that is precisely where DL could focus its next strategic moves – but UA doesn’t have a SE presence. The SE which does include MIA is still the largest revenue region in the US and DL is the dominant network carrier in the region and in every key city except for MIA as AA’s hub and CLT as US’…. But DL is a solid #2 even in those regions.
However, you say that DL and UA will have NYC plus one other hub – IAD for UA plus ATL for DL… yet the simple fact remains that the NYC markets remains much larger than any other market and as hubs – DL and UA both have enormous power to concentrate the east coast market using the strength of the local market – hubs are built on strong local markets and the strongest hubs have the strongest local markets. The difference is that EWR is slot restricted so UA/CO cannot grow anymore in the NYC area; DL’s addition of flights will allow it to match if not exceed UA/CO’s total NYC size but will do it from LGA and JFK which is where the largest markets from NYC are to just about any city in the US… IAH is about the only market from NYC where the largest market is from EWR and not LGA or JFK but that could change if DL decides to start LGA-IAH service. Given that LGA is by far the preferred airport compared to both EWR and JFK in markets that are within the perimeter rule, DL has a revenue advantage that could add billions in dollars in revenue that others cannot match.
The revenue that you obtain in your strongest local markets is what you use to “fund” the hub you build to support the entire region.
And you still can’t overlook the fact that DL carries more revenue to/from/through ATL than ANY OTHER TWO HUBS in the US combined; ie DL carries more revenue to/from/through ATL than UA carries through EWR/IAD, AA through MIA/DFW, AA/US carries through MIA/CLT etc.
When you combine the strength of DL’s ATL hub with what it will have in NYC, there is no conceivable combination that can surpass DL’s strength on the east coast.
.
Mikey is right and he is not stuck in the 80s or 90s. AA has the resources to be a very viable competitor – but BK will be a very tough process that can only result in huge cuts and job losses for AA employers, AA’s turnaround is built heavily around taking on more debt (and we can look around the world to Europe to see what happens when debt levels grow too high), and AA’s competitors will be aggressively looking for opportunities to take the large chunks of high value revenue which AA still continues to carry – even if AA has found it harder and harder to protect that revenue recently.
I repeat and back it with a promise – AA will restructure, they will emerge without US getting their hands on AA, but AA will have major strategic and competitive challenges to address during BK as well as after they emerge – and US simply does not address those shortcomings, no matter how much anyone would like to believe otherwise.
 
Ok son if you think so. Right now US is not in Chapter 11 and you are, so that negates your statement of your being in a better position right now. We'll turn a profit this year and you won't. I will see some kind of profit sharing. You won't. As you get raped by your company during this process come to me in 6 months to a year and let's hear how cocky you are about your "better position" relative to us. No one knows the end game to all of this, but once again, while navigating your way through this end game I suggest for your mental health that you invest in a delicious carton of vanilla ice cream with a slice of piping hot humble pie and reflect on your AArogance and the fact that life can change on the drop of a dime. But that if you are to successfully navigate that change, that you too are going to have to change and to put to rest all prior hegemonies and and beliefs that once informed you at AA. While you are a major player, you are a vulnerable player, subject to the vagaries of the courts and creditors who will ultimately determine your sad fate. Good luck and Bon Apetit!


Sorry ma'am.

I, as well as everyone else here, understands your position.

Lets theorize, what happens to LCC 2, 3, 5 years down the road IF a LCC AA combination does not occur.

Now, NOBODY knows with certainty what will happen in BK, and you've taken a strong position that LCC's problems are over with all of this. So lets shift gears a little and speculate what happens to LCC. Shall we?

I see the eternal holding pattern LCC has been in get one more extension to their EFC. After that, DP is faced with what to do with LCC.

Again, since nobody knows where this road leads, and based on your "bet" AA and LCC will combine..

What happens to LCC in a couple of years if this merger doesn't happen?
 
Sorry ma'am.

I, as well as everyone else here, understands your position.

Lets theorize, what happens to LCC 2, 3, 5 years down the road IF a LCC AA combination does not occur.

Now, NOBODY knows with certainty what will happen in BK, and you've taken a strong position that LCC's problems are over with all of this. So lets shift gears a little and speculate what happens to LCC. Shall we?

I see the eternal holding pattern LCC has been in get one more extension to their EFC. After that, DP is faced with what to do with LCC.

Again, since nobody knows where this road leads, and based on your "bet" AA and LCC will combine..

What happens to LCC in a couple of years if this merger doesn't happen?

They will merge [or be purchased] by/with UAL - putting AMR in an even worse place than they are in right now.
 
probably not because the same WAS area concentration issues would arise that killed the previous UA/US combination plans....
And let's also remember that again all this talk of an AA/US combination fails to recognize that the DOJ was very close (according to reports) to blocking the DCA part of the transaction because US now holds/will hold more than 50% of the slots at DCA. Given that AA holds about 15% of the slots at DCA now, 65% in the hands of one carrier will likely stop the possibility of combining AA and US... if US were forced to divest the equivalent of AA's current slot holdings at DCA, the deal looks a whole lot less attractive.
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The same thing will likely happen to US as would happen to AA if AA can't successfully restructure - it will be "parted out" in BK after its revenue generating levels fall below levels that it is possible to cut costs. It is doubtful that many more cost cuts can be made from US' current structure.
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If US is "parted out, then perhaps it will be AA doing the buying - or if the hubs have enough value, perhaps they can be sold individually. But usually hubs just "die" becaues the airline operating them just didn't keep them viable to the point they could sell them -and competitors just moved in.
 

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