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On 4/17/2003 10:52:53 AM Bob Owens wrote:
Well its the equivelent of working for free. Suppositions are used all the time by the company so why shouldnt we use them? A more accurate statement would be our reasonably expected lifetime earnings are going to be reduced the equivelent of two years of working for nothing over the term of this contract. Better? As for the Enron math, the only numbers that were not actual, were the numbers for inflation and health benifits, in that case I used the 30 year average for the CPI. The CPI generally under-reports the true rate of inflation that working people feel because it does not include taxes or real estate. Inflation could admittedly be lower, but not likely, or much higher which is more likely. Once again the CPI does not take into account taxes which are likely to go up as we use our military to enforce our will across the globe and fight terrorism.
How do you know what would have happened? What are you basing it on? What the company said?"
"And there would have been no negotiation process; you would just have been screwed."
Oh really, who told you that? Didnt UAL negotiate in BK? Read the law. And then look at the entire picture.The Law has very few absolutes, it all depends upon the arguements that are put forth. If the Lawyer sucks your chances are less, despite the balance of facts. Look at OJ! We have lots of good reasons why we could have rejected the company''s demands such as the fact that the company already enjoyed Concessions that UAL and USAIR still dont have. The demands of the company were excessive. Their major competitor or so they say, SWA pays more than us.
Those 1113 letters are worthless because the DIP is not bound to them, only the current management team. So they get rid of Carty and freinds, they took care of themselves already, and throw out those 1113 letters. So what exactly did you get for $20,000/year in concessions? Not a damn thing STUPID! You are even more naked than you were before.
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"Reasonably expected lifetime earnings"... Reasonable to whom?
Now if you were to state "our earnings under the previous contract would have been 40% greater" then I might be able to agree with you. But then I would point out that that contract was contributing to unsustainable losses by your employer, and if those losses had continued, your employer would have had no money left in 6 months-1 year, how would that FACT have altered your expected lifetime earnings? With no job or starting over at the bottom somewhere else? Would those life time earnings have been less? Or more?
Since your numbers are entirely theoretical and are based on false assumptions, they have no basis in fact and are therefore irrelevant.
How do I know? Simple.
1) AA needs DIP financing if they file Ch. 11.
2) To get DIP financing, the lenders say "We need $2.3B in concessions."
3) No DIP financing = Chapter 7 = No jobs for any of us.
AA would rather not file Ch. 11 if it doesn''t have to. If I believe nothing else they say, I believe that the management wants the airline to survive. If that were not the case, they simply would have filed. So therefore, they tried to analyze the situation and say "What do we need to get our costs back to a reasonable, manageable level in this revenue environment." So that''s what they go ask for instead.
In bankruptcy, you would have been dealing not with the company but with those DIP financiers, secured creditors. They don''t care about what cost advantages you have over anybody else, or about your seniority or station protection or anything else. They are concerned only with the bottom line that they will not lose their money they are putting up as DIP financing. And anything that stands in the way of that will be removed (like your contract). The judge is not your friend; he is there to guarantee the secured creditors get their money. So you are screwed...
The 1113 letters are not tied to the current management team; they are tied to the Company itself. Re-read the language. Granted it is thin protection, but in the process above, the company does have a voice, albeat a small one. Employees and unions are unsecured creditors. We have no voice.
And don''t call me stupid...