Excellent post, Boomer. A few weeks ago, eolesen posted a story outlining how IBM and others were analyzing whether they should cancel their health plans and pay the penalty, which was only about 20% or 25% of the annual health plan costs, IIRC.
Unless Obamacare is drastically amended (or Congress outlaws the practice), I can see AMR (and many other companies) deciding that the time is right to terminate their employee health plans and let the employees go to the exchanges with (at least) some of the cost savings.
Problem is, employer-paid health insurance is a nontaxable fringe for the most part but increased compensation (from some or all of the savings frrom canceling the health plan) is taxable income to the employees. That alone would eat up a bunch of the savings.
The problem is not taxable versus non-taxable income: hell, AMR/AA could future cost capture the relative discriminatory impact between the (under 50) and (50 and over) by increasing the automatic match on the 401(k) to the (49 and under) at X% for X years and leave the (50 and over) crowd contentedly chewing their cud on the sidelines.
The problem is that an Individual contributed an amount matched by AA into an individually numbered account, in a trust fund, held for that beneficiary under the appropriate contractual terms between the union and the company. Under the current M&R TA, despite the benficiary having fulfilled all legal terms to become qualified for participation: they are being removed, and their contribution match re-distributed soley on the basis of an illegal parameter for the benefit of a class of participants which may or may not have become qualified for participation in the first place.