Will Oneworld lose JAL?

[goodgirl37]

It occurred to me that DL may or may not actually want JAL in Skyteam. As has been pointed out, there are some fairly formidable regulatory hurdles to get across. Not the least of which are the 5 Freedoms rights of NW which I'm sure will accrue to the merged airline.

Their motive here may just be the damage they could do to AMR and the Oneworld alliance. Particularly, if their agreement with JAL is that they only have to pony up the money IF the move of JAL to Skyteam is approved. That could be years down the road, and in the meantime, OneWorld and AMR are deprived of the codeshares, etc in Asia.

LOL, thats what i just posted, DAL is in a win win here. Good Thinking though champ!!

 

[FA Mikey]

It occurred to me that DL may or may not actually want JAL in Skyteam. As has been pointed out, there are some fairly formidable regulatory hurdles to get across.

Together they would control 60% of the US- Japanese market, compared to 41% control AA and BA have at LHR which is open to all carriers.

IF the move of JAL to Skyteam is approved. That could be years down the road, and in the meantime, OneWorld and AMR are deprived of the codeshares, etc in Asia.

AA says it would take at least two years for the switch to take place. JAL gets about 250 million a year in revenue from the alliance. JAL is not going to enter in to an agreement unless they believe they can get more revenue, cover losses in the interim and will be able to get through the regulatory hurdles. As FWAA has pointed out AA still has Cathay on its team. You might see some additional AA flights to HKG to off set a JAL loss were that to actually happen.

 

[goodgirl37]

Together they would control 60% of the US- Japanese market, compared to 41% control AA and BA have at LHR which is open to all carriers.

AA says it would take at least two years for the switch to take place. JAL gets about 250 million a year in revenue from the alliance. JAL is not going to enter in to an agreement unless they believe they can get more revenue, cover losses in the interim and will be able to get through the regulatory hurdles. As FWAA has pointed out AA still has Cathay on its team. You might see some AA flights to off set a JAL loss were that to actually happen.

Yeah you would definitely probably see more AA flights to Japan. However, thats not the point, its having the carrier to take them beyond Japan to other destinations, which, AA cant and wont do. Likely, JAL could bring in more revenue from SkyTeam and DAL, thats kind of a no brainer, its just whether they want to make the switch and who sweetens the pot enough.

 

[FA Mikey]

Can you post anything to back up that claim? Many others here post facts reference articles, published documents and SEC filings. You havent posted a singe reference to back anything up. You have no facts, yet you answer back on almost every single post. Why is that?

 

[FrequentFlierCA]

A lot of you seem think the sky will fall if JAL leaves Oneworld. I agree that it wouldn't be great for the alliance and route network, but remember that JAL only joined a couple years ago. Oneworld was plenty successful with CX as its sole Asian partner.

The real issue for me is giving Delta that much control at a treaty-restricted airport like NRT. That's bad for competition, and very different than AA/BA at LHR, which is now under an open skies agreement.

 

[eolesen]

I happen to agree with you, CA. From a service perspective, CX wins hands down over JL.

DL's fifth freedom rights are of dubious value right now. Once the 787 and A350 are online, overflying NRT becomes a lot more practical, and then DL's dominance goes by the wayside a bit.

I also think HND could be a game-changer. It's the DAL and/or LGA of Tokyo. If JL jumps ship, it might be a win/win for AA and oneworld to move all the US flying to Haneda... but again, the bilateral comes into play. Put open skies in place, and it could be quite interesting...

 

[FWAAA]

Delta and Skyteam are touting their $1 billion package of equity, secured financing and revenue replacement guarantee:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Delta-SkyTea...l?x=0&.v=10

Which works out to about $700 million of equity and financing.

TPG and AA have been throwing around larger numbers, from the rumours circulating in Japan:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-firm-m...17?siteid=yhoof

The TPG/AA deal looks richer at about $1.45 billion.

 

[Deleted member 14439]

I`m just going to chime in from the knuckledragger perspective. All this cash,real or imagined, being thrown about and my small station does not have enough BASIC ground equipment to do our job. The other night we had THIRD PARTY CUSTOMERS sitting in their airplane because rhe few airstairs we had were in use or inop.
So go ahead spend money like drunken sailors on pie in the sky complicated moves. I predict we will once again outsmart ourselves. Then the company, hat in hand, will come back asking for more pay/benefit cuts.

 

[FWAAA]

I`m just going to chime in from the knuckledragger perspective. All this cash,real or imagined, being thrown about and my small station does not have enough BASIC ground equipment to do our job. The other night we had THIRD PARTY CUSTOMERS sitting in their airplane because rhe few airstairs we had were in use or inop.
So go ahead spend money like drunken sailors on pie in the sky complicated moves. I predict we will once again outsmart ourselves. Then the company, hat in hand, will come back asking for more pay/benefit cuts.

I can appreciate the sentiment that it looks like Arpey's fiddling while your outstation is burning, but I'm confident that the company will come back to you, hat in hand, for more concessions, regardless of the outcome of the "which alliance will JAL be in next year" situation.

I also suspect that whatever sob story the company lays on you will be much more grim if Delta/Skyteam lures JAL away from AA/Oneworld. If AA loses premium NRT-connecting passengers to Delta because JAL is no longer part of the team, AA's already depressed revenues will be that much smaller. And less revenue means smaller raises (or larger concessions), regardless of Bob Owens' view that the pie's size has nothing to do with the money available to pay the help. In Owens' world, of course, turnips yield blood if you squeeze them his way.

It would be great if AA were able to cheaply fix the mismanagement that plagues your everyday existence, but in my view, that mismanagement doesn't diminish the need to try to protect its revenues from passengers on AA tickets. That revenue probably outweighs the third party ground handling revenue anyway. What are those delayed passengers going to do, never buy an AA ticket? They already didn't buy an AA ticket. B)

Sure, the other airline could "fire" AA, but that might be a good thing.

 

[FWAAA]

It may be a moot point:

Japan Airlines (JAL), which may have only enough cash to fund ten more days of operation, could be allowed to go bankrupt if a rescue package does not emerge quickly, the Government hinted yesterday.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6922066.ece

 

[1AA]

AA Pitches Oneworld Funding Package To Keep JAL Alliance

Fri, 20 Nov '09


"American stands ready to make a significant investment in JAL"


Read entire article here

 

[Hopeful]

The plot thickens. Jal not heard from American....

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091120-701718.html

 

[JFK Fleet Service]

What, don't they know the wunderkind at AMR take the entire weekend off?

JAL is as good as gone.Arpey and the 'Gee Whiz' MBA kids are trying to figure out how to "Retreat with dignity" from this latest debacle.


I can see it now... "The pacific region really isn't a growth area for us, we're more focused on the challenges of air to air refueling of Eagle RJ's on the North Atlantic and our continued retreat on all domestic fronts."

Flightplan 2020 is a misnomer, it should be called "Frightplan 2020".

 

[FWAAA]

The plot thickens. Jal not heard from American....

To be fair, it wasn't JAL who claimed not to have heard from American, it was the Japan transport minister:

"No, we haven't (heard from American Airlines) ... There is no change in our policy to support JAL while (the Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corp.) is implementing assessment of JAL's assets," Seiji Maehara, Japan's Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, said at a regular press conference.

News this morning is that Delta and Skyteam stand ready to invest more than $1 billion:

The chief executive of Delta Air Lines Inc. said the SkyTeam alliance of global carriers would be willing to invest more than its proposed $1.02 billion into struggling Japan Airlines Corp. as it tries to forge a trans-Pacific partnership.

The final proposed investment into JAL by the nine-airline SkyTeam alliance could be "greater than what we've stated" thus far, Richard Anderson said in an interview Friday.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...sNewsCollection

 

[AANOTOK]

With the above stated news, the AA/BA/IB linkup probably being denied, and all three unions on the verge of self-help, I have a feeling AA's world is about to come crashing (no pun intended) down on them. Do we park them between Pan Am and Eastern, or Braniff and TWA. Get ready for the show!!