AA & JAL need to fly to other US citites from Japan, Boston would be a good start. Other then DFW AA & JAL cover the BIG Japanesse "four" on the US mainland, JFK, LAX, SFO & ORD. The "four" are the cities both JAL and ANA fly to. Miami is another AA desirable city to Japan, a 77W could fly nonstop to NRT from MIA, since JAL has a dozen or more in the fleet. AA flying to beyond NRT would also ber positive, ORD to PEK is good but Seoul or Hong Kong would be nice to.
Will Oneworld lose JAL?
- Thread starter JFK Fleet Service
- Start date
goodgirl37
Senior
- Jul 24, 2005
- 400
- 2
This is one of the reasons a SKYTEAM linkup will benefit JAL more than AA and OneWorld..
upsilon
Senior
- Aug 20, 2002
- 372
- 2
I am a paid subscriber to Plane Business Banter, a newsletter about airline financials edited by Holly Hegeman. In the first years of this decade Holly also hosted a BB on which many current USAv posters were active and eolesen was the Moderator. When the level of strife caused Holly to shut it down, we were invited here.
I hope it is ‘fair use’ (or if not I will be forgiven) for lifting from today’s newsletter comments Holly reported were made last week by Gerard Arpey at an internal AA meeting.
Holly “translated†the bolded words as a "veiled" threat to JAL: “JAL, if you want to change alliances and team up with Delta, you just wait and see the fight we are going to put up against you if you attempt to set up a codeshare agreement, much less immunity.â€
In today’s political climate I am sure that such an alliance approval could drag out as long as has the AA/BA alliance. IMO, JAL/DAL 'ain't gonna happen'!
I hope it is ‘fair use’ (or if not I will be forgiven) for lifting from today’s newsletter comments Holly reported were made last week by Gerard Arpey at an internal AA meeting.
"Many of the facts are on our side, because trying to change alliances in US partners in the middle of a lot of stress, would certainly create a lot of friction costs in terms of lost revenue and cost to change IT systems, etc. and it would certainly present a lot of regulatory risk, since Delta is very dominant through Northwest in Japan, and United is very dominant, and we're not, in an Open Skies environment we could likely get immunity with JAL. United would likely get immunity with ANA. Delta already has a big hub at Narita. So, what you would end up with is a very competitive landscape if that were the outcome.
“If JAL were to change horses, we would certainly argue that they might not be allowed to even code-share, let alone have immunity with the dominant carrier in Narita."
“If JAL were to change horses, we would certainly argue that they might not be allowed to even code-share, let alone have immunity with the dominant carrier in Narita."
Holly “translated†the bolded words as a "veiled" threat to JAL: “JAL, if you want to change alliances and team up with Delta, you just wait and see the fight we are going to put up against you if you attempt to set up a codeshare agreement, much less immunity.â€
In today’s political climate I am sure that such an alliance approval could drag out as long as has the AA/BA alliance. IMO, JAL/DAL 'ain't gonna happen'!
goodgirl37
Senior
- Jul 24, 2005
- 400
- 2
I am sure JAL is shaking in their boots at threats from AA.. Did you forget, its JAL thats making the choices not AA.. JAL could just say, see ya OneWorld, they are not losing anything by going to SkyTeam, look at CAL, they just did it, do you think they lost their behinds b/c of switching? No, they will make money, b/c it is more opportunity etc. It is obvious AA is terrified of losing JAL, not the other way around. SERIOUSLY now, c'mon...
Arpey himself has said the partnership with JAL allows American to win customers away from United and Delta's Northwest Airlines unit, both of which fly from the U.S. to Tokyo.
American officials claim that JAL would suffer up to $500 million in lost revenue over two years while it switches to Delta's SkyTeam alliance. And American argues that it could win regulatory approval for even closer ties -- antitrust immunity that would let American and JAL set prices and schedules on U.S.-Tokyo flights. American claims that Delta might not win regulatory approval because a Delta-Northwest-JAL team would control more than 60 percent of the U.S.-Tokyo market.
goodgirl37
Senior
- Jul 24, 2005
- 400
- 2
Japan Government Finalizing Rescue Plan For JAL:
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articl...97_FORTUNE5.htm
Japan Airlines set to get emergency loan:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...nOVWr2gu4SbxwZw
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articl...97_FORTUNE5.htm
Japan Airlines set to get emergency loan:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...nOVWr2gu4SbxwZw
eolesen
Veteran
- Jul 23, 2003
- 15,940
- 9,371
Not sure what alternate universe you live in, but the only "exactly like" at play here is slot controls.
Both NRT and LHR are slot controlled, and it's been proven time and time again that slots are available when carriers are willing to pay the market rates and/or trade for them.
The key difference between LHR and NRT is Open Skies.
There are no regulatory restrictions on frequencies between the US and UK. There's nothing preventing CO, DL, US, UA, AA, or even AS, G4 or WN from operating a couple dozen flights each (or more) from LHR, provided they can obtain the slots and gates. When LHR opened up almost two years ago, there was no problem for NW, DL, and CO to get slots or gate facilities from their alliance partners. VS has had no problem growing their LHR operation.
That's not even close to the case with Japan.
AA could buy up every available slot at NRT, but couldn't operate them because of the limits in the bilateral on the number of frequencies available for US carriers to operate.
So, keep on believing that they're the same if you must. But you're wrong.
If the Obama DOT & DOJ signed off on DL/JL codesharing, then there'd be no sound reason to block AA/BA/IB/CX/QF and anyone else flying the North Pacific from obtaining full immunity.
goodgirl37
Senior
- Jul 24, 2005
- 400
- 2
Your almost right, but AA is saying "if" Japan does give open skies.... IF.... then we will...... etc., AA is threatning as if JAL cares. They don't, and AA knows that it is more beneficial for them to go to SkyTeam, and if they do, OneWorld will surely lose Cathay, and then, well, they will be even weaker than they are already - practically crippled. Thats why, lets face it, something many of you have a hard time doing.
eolesen
Veteran
- Jul 23, 2003
- 15,940
- 9,371
Your logic is just a bit too assinine to even try and comprehend.
If JL leaves, CX has the most to gain from them leaving.
And as for JL making the decisions.... you're going blind from all the DL koolaid, gir.
JL is on the verge of insolvency, and the real control of the situation is sitting with the government, their outside shareholders, and their creditors. They need a cash infusion to stay afloat, and even if they did switch to Skyteam, don't have the money to do the upgrades they'd need to do to their IT platforms much less their onboard product.
Left out of this whole argument is the opening of Haneda. JL knows that there are carriers who will leave NRT for HND. AA might very well be one of them if JL pulls out of oneworld. It's closer to downtown, and more convenient. It may wind up being less congested since it has four runways (two + two crosswind) compared to NRT's two parallels.
If JL leaves, CX has the most to gain from them leaving.
And as for JL making the decisions.... you're going blind from all the DL koolaid, gir.
JL is on the verge of insolvency, and the real control of the situation is sitting with the government, their outside shareholders, and their creditors. They need a cash infusion to stay afloat, and even if they did switch to Skyteam, don't have the money to do the upgrades they'd need to do to their IT platforms much less their onboard product.
Left out of this whole argument is the opening of Haneda. JL knows that there are carriers who will leave NRT for HND. AA might very well be one of them if JL pulls out of oneworld. It's closer to downtown, and more convenient. It may wind up being less congested since it has four runways (two + two crosswind) compared to NRT's two parallels.
goodgirl37
Senior
- Jul 24, 2005
- 400
- 2
DAL will gladly pay for them to switch platforms, you do realize, that is a very minimal cost in the grand scheme. JAL will get money, as they have multiple offers for cash infusions including their government, whom i doubt would let them fail. Cathay, may have no choice, you need to do some research, they may be pulled to STAR whether they want to or not. Your not the kitty cats meow anymore, in fact, quite the opposite.
Hard to argue with logic like this:
Guys, stop throwing food under the bridges.
In other news, Tokyo promises loans to JAL:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/460f04da-ce31-11...amp;segid=03058
Guys, stop throwing food under the bridges.
In other news, Tokyo promises loans to JAL:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/460f04da-ce31-11...amp;segid=03058
MERV
Advanced
Yes he will try to get JAL but that's upto them choice their best partner with AA or DL. JAL said that they want to stand alone. AA needs it more than DL even DL notice that. That why they're bidding for it!!! AA brung some of their one world partners to offset some of investment they have to do!!!! Some of the funds they raised will go for the JAL investment. The employees in all this will be affected in the future!!!!
There is no way in you know where we should just let DL try to take JAL away without a fight. I'm glad to see Arpey standing up and speaking out on something that is a long term issue of strategy. That's what he's paid the big bucks to do.
I agree with eolesen that LHR and NRT are totally different beasts. And for us to just let Delta start running the table at one of Asia's most important airports would be foolish, especially considering the projected growth of that market in the decades to come.
I agree with eolesen that LHR and NRT are totally different beasts. And for us to just let Delta start running the table at one of Asia's most important airports would be foolish, especially considering the projected growth of that market in the decades to come.
goodgirl37
Senior
- Jul 24, 2005
- 400
- 2
You are just a little too late, DAL(NWA) and UAL already run the show in Asia. It really isn't "your" or AMRs choice of who runs the table, that is why I said, if this does happen and it very well may, OneWorld could possibly be crippled.
