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JAL going to an alliance with an airline in direct competition and operating through Japan with 5 freedom rights may not be in their best interest.
JAL is better off in Oneworld. With us they are positioned to capture all of the NRT connecting traffic, whereas in Skyteam the Delta/Northwest juggernaut would be significant competition. Being the Asian feeder for a big carrier like AMR with no competition intra-Asia seems like a smarter move than signing up to Skyteam only to have to compete with its biggest carrier.
Personally, I still think CX could fill the void pretty well, but JL staying in oneworld seems to be a better fit for them.
Not only would they play a smaller role in the US-JP market, but they'd also be competing for the US originating traffic to secondary destinations with both Korean and China Southern, and thanks to the broader fifth-freedom rights and China authorities, DL has the ability to either carry some of that traffic themselves via NRT or overfly NRT entirely in the case of China..
In oneworld, there's some overlap betwen JL and CX for the beyond-traffic, but because AA doesn't have the same beyond rights, so there's more traffic for JL and CX to split.
Will no doubt be interesting to watch...
SkyTeam creates more opportunities from and to more markets at more drop off points in the US, therefore allowing them to carry and share more PAX... Which is more money. I would not be surprised to see them go with SkyTeam, it is a more attractive opportunity.
Personally, I still think CX could fill the void pretty well, but JL staying in oneworld seems to be a better fit for them.
...
Will no doubt be interesting to watch...
That may be true, however, even CX's ability to remain in oneworld may be beyond it's control.
Air China-Cathay Pacific move to shake up Star Alliance and oneworld
Scarry times.
Arpey said the deal has been good for JAL, by feeding American passengers to connecting flights in Tokyo.
"We are taking a lot of business from somebody ... we're doing that at the expense of either United or Delta-Northwest," he told his executives at a meeting in Dallas. American officials provided a transcript of his comments.