Will Oneworld lose JAL?

[Arpey and the gang better hire Tony Soprano to get JAL to play ball.We see how gerry handled the STL fiasco -Thats another story.Have a lovely day. :ph34r:
 
JAL going to an alliance with an airline in direct competition and operating through Japan with 5 freedom rights may not be in their best interest.


There must be some benefits, I would say, there are very few routes that they compete directly, and it would open new markets, especially to the US, with more connection traffic to JAL in NRT.. It gives JAL more market share and better connections in the US and other parts of the world vs. AA and OneWorld.
 
JAL is better off in Oneworld. With us they are positioned to capture all of the NRT connecting traffic, whereas in Skyteam the Delta/Northwest juggernaut would be significant competition. Being the Asian feeder for a big carrier like AMR with no competition intra-Asia seems like a smarter move than signing up to Skyteam only to have to compete with its biggest carrier.
 
JAL is better off in Oneworld. With us they are positioned to capture all of the NRT connecting traffic, whereas in Skyteam the Delta/Northwest juggernaut would be significant competition. Being the Asian feeder for a big carrier like AMR with no competition intra-Asia seems like a smarter move than signing up to Skyteam only to have to compete with its biggest carrier.

If JAL signed up with Skyteam & obtained ATI with Delta, they wouldn't be competing with the biggest carrier...that would be a huge benefit to them. But that means that JAL must share their market with DL.

JAL has to decide if it wants to be big fish in a little pond (oneworld) or a little fish in a big pond (Skyteam).

I may be biased, but if I were JAL, I would want to be a big fish.
 
Personally, I still think CX could fill the void pretty well, but JL staying in oneworld seems to be a better fit for them.

Not only would they play a smaller role in the US-JP market, but they'd also be competing for the US originating traffic to secondary destinations with both Korean and China Southern, and thanks to the broader fifth-freedom rights and China authorities, DL has the ability to either carry some of that traffic themselves via NRT or overfly NRT entirely in the case of China..

In oneworld, there's some overlap betwen JL and CX for the beyond-traffic, but because AA doesn't have the same beyond rights, so there's more traffic for JL and CX to split.

Will no doubt be interesting to watch...
 
Personally, I still think CX could fill the void pretty well, but JL staying in oneworld seems to be a better fit for them.

Not only would they play a smaller role in the US-JP market, but they'd also be competing for the US originating traffic to secondary destinations with both Korean and China Southern, and thanks to the broader fifth-freedom rights and China authorities, DL has the ability to either carry some of that traffic themselves via NRT or overfly NRT entirely in the case of China..

In oneworld, there's some overlap betwen JL and CX for the beyond-traffic, but because AA doesn't have the same beyond rights, so there's more traffic for JL and CX to split.

Will no doubt be interesting to watch...


SkyTeam creates more opportunities from and to more markets at more drop off points in the US, therefore allowing them to carry and share more PAX... Which is more money. I would not be surprised to see them go with SkyTeam, it is a more attractive opportunity.
 
Agree with eolesen. CX has a good route network, but the combination of CX and JL fills out Asia very nicely for Oneworld. It also increases earning and redemption opportunities for ff members.

I'm still stuck on the competition issue. Unless regulators are comfortable with DL dominating the world it seems like a much better bet to keep JL away from SkyTeam.
 
SkyTeam creates more opportunities from and to more markets at more drop off points in the US, therefore allowing them to carry and share more PAX... Which is more money. I would not be surprised to see them go with SkyTeam, it is a more attractive opportunity.

Not so sure your logic holds up here. 85% of the traffic in the US comes from the top 20 airports, and every major airline serves those 20 airports. The same pretty much holds up internationally, although I don't recall what the number of airports is (20 or 30?) that drives the 85%.

So, Skyteam may have more service to that 15%, but I don't know if it makes as big a difference as you think it does. What does matter is adequately serving those 20-30 markets which drive the 85% and making sure you get as much of that traffic as you can.
 
I wonder if JAL will wait to make its decision until after a ruling is made on AA/BA. How much does that ATI come into play?
 

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