Phoenix
Veteran
- Apr 16, 2003
- 8,584
- 7,430
Yes, you miss the point. While both retirement and DOH are carved in stone, what either gets you in the future (your expectations) are not.
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What the future brings is dependent on more factors than DOH and retirements, many of which can have a much more profound effect. The East's last 16 years should have taught them that, but apparently it didn't for many.....
Jim
I don't see how I missed your point at all, Jim. It appears I answered it just fine. Your answer reveals as much.
Sixteen years ago pilots used mandatory retirements and DOH to project their career expectations. Did they not? Why would you cite their failed expectations if it was not to show that mandatory retirements and DOH are not necessarily reliable factors for career expectations?
The presence of subsequent factors, that cannot be foreseen, does not change the fact that 16 years ago it was mandatory retirements and DOH that largely formed a pilots "career expectations." At any point in one's career, the most obvious and concrete factors remain mandatory retirements and DOH.
Admittedly there are subsequent factors that cannot be known by anyone. One could speculate pessimistically about supposed future unknown factors and imagine all the horrible effects they could have. One could even imagine them to be so powerful to obliterate all "career expectations". Or one could alternatively speculate with an unfounded optimism and come up with the opposite result. Who knows who could guess the actual outcomes based on unfounded pessimism or optimism? But that is the point. Career expectations are based on "knowns" not "unknowns".
To admit that we don't know what we don't know (and cannot know what we don't know) about the future, does not therefore demand we throw out all knowledge we do have when evaluating one's "career expectations."
So what if you have proved that pilots cannot be certain they are correct when they hold career expectations. It remains that they have them (based on the factors they do know) and the merger policy stipulates as much.
So what if two pilot groups can theoretically be wrong about their expectations? Should one group be required to have an unreasonably pessimistic expectation while the other is required to have an overly optimistic expectation?
So then what unknown factors should be speculated on to discern a merged list? Or, what factors should one use in consideration for "career expectation"---with effects on, or even to the exclusion of, mandatory retirements and DOH?
There may be some that existed at this snapshot. What are they?