Lets add up the #'s,
AA with TWU representation, outsource's or will outsource, the 787's (42 a/c) 777's, (67 a/c) 757's (102 a/c) 767's (6 a/c), and will not do the OH on the Airbus's (259 a/c). Which are replacing the 190 S80's, and 12 767-200's. If this info is inaccurate please correct, because these numbers look pretty bad. That's directed at You Bob, it would be nice to hear the real numbers from a union leader who has access to that info. That will hold more weight then info from me or overspeed. I got my a/c numbers from wikipedia.
I don't believe any union can control what a company decides to outsource, and they certainly don't have the power to decide which base stays open or closes. If the TWU claims they saved TULE, then they have to say they closed MCI, AFW, MSP, DTW, SNA, and CLE.
If you have the real numbers please post with a link if possible.
I don't have the numbers. I can say that in negotiations the company was asked directly about overhaul on the Airbus and the only answer they would give is that AA mechanics would work all aircraft types flown by AA, but that does not mean that we will do all the work. So if Line Maint is doing the overnighters and turnarounds, and they outsource all the checks from B on up, like they did with the TWA 747SP they have a pretty solid argument that should we arbitrate it we would lose. I know that Overspin claims that once the company goes over the 35% spend that our contract will force the company to bring that work back but we are looking at something that isn't likely to happen for at least ten years, by then those who lost their jobs in OH will be long gone, well into their 60s, past the ten year recall and well into another six year concessionary deal where they will likely eliminate that language and go back to offering system protection. Don and Bobby will make sure of that, we will get system protection when its not needed. You have to remember that the company came up with the 35% number, it was never discussed by the negotiating committee, so you can be sure that they picked a number that suited their needs and didn't provide us any protection because there is no real threat that they could cost effectively exceed the 35%. So come 2023, if that language survives at least one more negotiations, when the new Airbus and 737 and 787s start coming due for their heavy checks and the company needs to go over the 35%, or closer 50% if RR backs out of TEASL do you think that the majority of guys who remain, who will still likely be at the bottom of the industry in paid Time Off will not accept an offer by the company to continue to outsource OH in exchange for bringing them closer to industry standard? The 35% cap that he is banking on most likely wont be an issue during the life of this agreement because there really aren't cost effective alternatives at the moment to send the MD-80s to. As the MD-80s go away so will the jobs. We are already below 8000.
Will Tulsa go away as some have claimed? Who knows? If they have outlived their purpose then the answer is yes. By using Tulsa's majority status, low cost of living and the threat of closing the base they have leveraged us to the bottom of the industry. To the point where we are below non-union and below other industries that seek the same skillsets. But, in doing so they have made the whole industry unattractive to young people. That's why half the schools that trained A&Ps have closed and many of those that still offer Aircraft Maintenance have focused on other curriculum.
The average age of mechanics at AA is well into the 50s. Even though we cant afford to retire eventually we will have to go and there isn't really a sufficient supply to backfill us when we leave. Wages will be forced to go up, not because of the unions, but because of the market. In NY they were hiring at step 3 and pretty much only got people from Eagle, who get to keep their company seniority, to apply. Airlines with their poor reputation as employers have to compete with Utilities, Mass Transit and other industries which offer better compensation, more stability and better benefits for the 3000 or so A&Ps that are issued each year. Keep in mind that 3000 isn't just people looking to get into the Airlines, that includes General Aviation, Corporate, Manufacturing and the weekend pilot who wants to work on his own plane. Flight benefits really aren't much of an enticement when flying has become so cheap and the miserable hours that Airlines offer is enough to wipe out any illusions most young people have of working in the Airlines. AA is the worst of them all, not only is the pay and benefits the worst but they only offer 52 cents an hour premium for working Nights,weekends and Holidays. At top rate the night shift premium comes out to only 1.5%,lowest of any major industry and lowest in the airlines. (My wife gets 10% for working nights). On top of that they only get one week of vacation per year for the first five years. So imaging telling some young kid that he will only have one Friday and one Saturday night off to go hang with his friends for at least the first five years. Most of the kids I know would say "No thanks" and walk out the door or take the job and simply call in sick when they want to go out. Its not like there is a promising future in this industry.
MCI was told that their YES vote would save them too.