Tell you what, here in about 2 years, i want you to still be on this forum (but you may not, as you won't be interested in anything aviation related, as that is not where you'll be working)
Thats how I looked at it if it had passed. I'd be seriously looking to get out. Maybe it would take four years, (work doubles and give away days, it wouldnt affect the pension anymore) this way I could start collecting my pension at 55 and start a new job but this would be a place that had no future had it passed.
The fact is that aircraft mechanics are getting to be in short supply, most of my peers report that there is steady OT, whether its AA, UA, CO etc from what I hear the OT is flowing. AA was pulling a fast one, they dont want to cut 4500 heads, they want 10,000 heads real cheap. Yes there will be reductions but for AA they want to cut from the top, not the bottom. Why? Because those they cut at the top cost the most and if they leave they probably will not turn up at a competitor helping them make money. If they cut from the bottom all they are doing is providing young but experienced help to competitors. They are going to lower the headcount to the level they are seeking either way, 4500? No way, not right away. Who is going to do the work? Its not like MROs keep extra staff on hand should AA decide it wants to outsource, besides they are having their own problems with keeping staffed, last year AAR said they needed 200 mechanics, now its 500.
We could come out of this with very few if any on the street and still leave the company with what it needs to be "competitive", let the old guys go with a little incentive-like UAL $75K, provide a competative wage and benefit package(from a fair perspective based on the airline industry) and let attrition continue to pull the overall numbers down to the balance they seek between outsourced and in-house. This way they arent supplying competitors with labor. If they find more places to do it more cost effectively, offer another early out if system attrition isnt high enough. With the average age being 55 the last thing AA really wants to do is RIF junior people, that effectively raises the average age and costs. AA needs to start lowering the average age or they will find themselves in a bind down the road trying to replace huge numbers in a short time span. I beleive AA plans to start hiring right out of the schools within in a few years even with headcount reductions(thus the insistance on complete autonomy over the QAM). New hires bring down the average cost, lower medical, bottom of the scale in wages, less vacation and banked sick time. Get them right out of school and AA is all they know.
If AA manges to squeeze a contract through with 51% they are doomed, because on the line the majority of those who would have endorsed the agreement would be headed out the door, meaning the overwhelming majority of who was left would be extremely dissatisfied and even with the Bootlick letter management isnt likely to get much buy in on any plan to make AA "best in class" when we are compensated "worst in class". The younger workers who voted YES because they were worried about getting laid off would likely leave to other carriers or industries as the economy picks up. So AA would be left with a lot of miserable employees who would probably make AAs customers the same way.
The "NO" vote saved AA from themselves. It gives the company the opportunity to present a realistic proposal that addresses valid concerns they have while addressing our valid concerns.