Is USAirways hostile takeover Of AA for Real?

[Frank Szabo]

... snip

But the main point is now that AMR will agree to sign those critical docs after dragging their feet for nearly two months now, the ball will begin to roll in US AIrways favor. AMR made concession in order to be able to emerge from BK with ratified TAs -- what the UCC would want to see in order to approve any exit by AMR from BK. But it does them no good -- because AMR is giving the unions the rope US Airways is about to use to hang them.

Much of what you say is what I suspected since LCC got involved in this cluster - two executives attempting to "out-ruthless" each other, basically, with the workers left holding the bag. The twu (and I believe the ibt) understands this but isn't saying a thing to help its membership for the international's own fun and profit.

American Airlines died many years ago - at least the company we remember.

 

[FWAAA]

That was a tough read. This is an easier version for those of us over 50.

The new software changes the font and size randomly every time I reply to a topic. Sometimes it chooses subscript or superscript and sometimes selects underlined or xxx-d out type.

And the only people who believe in the standalone plan are Horton, his VPs and a few people on A.net who really have no idea what they are talking about. I have read through these threads in amazement of the abject ignorance and sophomoric armchair CEOing as is typical of this board concerning the fate of AMR. This situation is fluid and ever-changing in the minutae, but the end result will be that US will take over AMR in BK, as soon as all the pieces are put into place according to the protocol set forth by the UCC as agreed upon in the terms of the bankruptcy, which is exactly what has been happening. It simply keeps changing. But the constant and inarguable reality is that nothing AMR can do at this point will result in anything that competes with the US plan.

JFK Purser mentions the "abject ignorance and sophomoric armchair CEOing" prevalent on airliners.net. While I don't argue with that characterization, JFKPurser should be careful, since they display plenty of "abject ignorance and sophomoric armchair CEOing" themselves.

This was stipulated by APFA as a condition to sending out a TA for ratification.e Two key docs -- NDA, which allows US to see AMR books and a Hard Scott Rubino which is a review by the DOJ to see if there are conflicts of interest.

Irony alert (see above re: abject ignorance and armchair CEOing). AA has agreed to cooperate with US in completeing the Hart-Scott-Rodino premerger notification with the FTC and the DoJ. The purpose of the HSR filing is not "to see if there are conflicts of interest," as JFKPurser confidently (and incorrectly) asserts - the purpose is to determine the likellihood of a Clayton Act violation if the merger is completed. In other words, the FTC and DoJ review proposed mergers and business combinations to determine whether the merger so impacts competition as to constitute a violation of the antitrust laws.

JFKPurser asserts very confidently, that the AA plan has no chance with the creditors and that the only plan with a chance is the US plan. AA has an exclusivity period that runs until the end of the year - it's entirely possible that the AA POR is approved and AA exits Ch 11 before US has a chance to place its plan before the creditors.

 

[Raptorman49]

Good article , both AA & Us Airways Management have a plan to get rich. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/american-and-us-airways-dance-around-a-merger/

 

[PITbull]

Interference abounds....from US Airways... Geezus people...AA is financing their own BK and has $5 B in the bank....they'll be handing that $$$$B over to the acquiring airline. Unfriggin believable. USAirways can help purchase AA with AA's money This is such a shame, really.

.Here's an interesting article to ponder...comments please...



http://in.reuters.co...E8IAD8320120711

 

[WorldTraveler]

Interference abounds....from US Airways... Geezus people...AA is financing their own BK and has $5 B in the bank....they'll be handing that $$$$B over to the acquiring airline. Unfriggin believable. USAirways can help purchase AA with AA's money This is such a shame, really.

.Here's an interesting article to ponder...comments please...



http://in.reuters.co...E8IAD8320120711

The latest news shows that AMR will entertain proposals and consider combinations with a list of airlines and is open to talking with airlines and investors that aren't on its list... which is exactly the way the purpose is supposed to work and exactly what many of us have said all along would be the case.
There is no assurance that ANY proposal will be superior to AMR's standalone proposal but if one is found which is superior to an AA standalone plan, it will also have to be superior to every other potential competing plan.
It is also very possible that AA labor's allegiance will change once they have the opportunity to see other plans since US is so far the only option which has even remotely come close to making a proposal - and so far, their proposal has only been in the form of providing promises to labor which other groups may or may not match or exceed.
It is also possible that AMR, faced w/ the possibility that creditors might support another plan, might chance some of the terms of its restructuring.

The process is intended to ensure that all AA stakeholders in BK will receive the best outcome - but that outcome is clearly weighted in favor of current financials and to the unsecured creditors.

 

[etops1]

The latest news shows that AMR will entertain proposals and consider combinations with a list of airlines and is open to talking with airlines and investors that aren't on its list... which is exactly the way the purpose is supposed to work and exactly what many of us have said all along would be the case.
There is no assurance that ANY proposal will be superior to AMR's standalone proposal but if one is found which is superior to an AA standalone plan, it will also have to be superior to every other potential competing plan.
It is also very possible that AA labor's allegiance will change once they have the opportunity to see other plans since US is so far the only option which has even remotely come close to making a proposal - and so far, their proposal has only been in the form of providing promises to labor which other groups may or may not match or exceed.
It is also possible that AMR, faced w/ the possibility that creditors might support another plan, might chance some of the terms of its restructuring.

The process is intended to ensure that all AA stakeholders in BK will receive the best outcome - but that outcome is clearly weighted in favor of current financials and to the unsecured creditors.

I can live with this post .

 

[wings396]

The latest news shows that AMR will entertain proposals and consider combinations with a list of airlines and is open to talking with airlines and investors that aren't on its list... which is exactly the way the purpose is supposed to work and exactly what many of us have said all along would be the case.
There is no assurance that ANY proposal will be superior to AMR's standalone proposal but if one is found which is superior to an AA standalone plan, it will also have to be superior to every other potential competing plan.
It is also very possible that AA labor's allegiance will change once they have the opportunity to see other plans since US is so far the only option which has even remotely come close to making a proposal - and so far, their proposal has only been in the form of providing promises to labor which other groups may or may not match or exceed.
It is also possible that AMR, faced w/ the possibility that creditors might support another plan, might chance some of the terms of its restructuring.

The process is intended to ensure that all AA stakeholders in BK will receive the best outcome - but that outcome is clearly weighted in favor of current financials and to the unsecured creditors.

And don't leave out that this route will save your brothers job too WT...

 

[WorldTraveler]

And don't leave out that this route will save your brothers job too WT...

There is no certainty with any proposal, including AA's standalone proposal. He is high enough in seniority that it would take a massive downsizing of AA's operations for him to be laid off, but he will be affected by the benefits cuts and reductions throughout the company with just about any proposal.
.
Because AA continues to have an enormously valuable franchise, there will be no shortage of parties who will be interested in acquiring AA should that become necessary. The track record for reorganizing network airlines in BK is very strong over the past 10 years; yet at the same time, much of the rest of the industry is quite healthy now which puts alot more pressure on AA to produce a very strong plan.
.
We may be past the halfway point in AA's BK already; we've managed to keep the board going so far with the speculation - I'm sure it can be kept alive for another 6-8 months.

 

[700UW]

IMO US and AA offer the best benefits to offer to each other, B6, F9 or VX dont bring enough to the table in route structure if you ask me.

 

[eolesen]

IMO US and AA offer the best benefits to offer to each other, B6, F9 or VX dont bring enough to the table in route structure if you ask me.

By themselves, the Small Fry might not be compelling, but a combination of several could be more interesting, and present a lot less labor baggage to contend with than a US/AA matchup.

 

[WorldTraveler]

All of those airlines combined don't provide AA w/ the mass it needs in the Pacific, and several only replace capacity AA once operated and gave up.
Given that AA's original plan was based on heavy internal growth, it is conceivable that AA could attempt to regain some of its lost markets which is what most of the domestic merger partners could provide.
If that happened, AA could focus its attention on the int'l market, which AA could build around oneworld.

The industry is likely moving toward global consolidation even though US airlines still believe there is opportunity for further consolidation in the US.

But whatever AA does internally is highly dependent on the value it can show to the creditors - who might see growth as riskier than mergers or perhaps the other way around.

The whole process of entertaining merger proposals - which may very well involve combinations as well as divestiture scenarios that AA probably wouldn't and doesn't want to entertain - will make this review one of the most comprehensive that any US airline has been subjected to in BK.

 

[FA Mikey]

I understand what AA offers usair. I cant say the same back. Lets face it there is a host of other airlines that offer AA so much more than the headaches surrounding usair and its fractured employee groups, and its old airplanes.

Jetblue offers a world around JFK, while usiar gave that to Delta. Alaska offers the west coast and Seattle. That VS PHL, CLT, DCA, and PHX offers AA nothing to write home or help building a profitable carrier.

 

[signals]

From the article:
A source familiar with the situation said AMR sees itself as an acquirer in potential mergers and at least five airlines -- US Airways Group Inc, JetBlue Airways Corp, Alaska Air Group, Republic Airways' Frontier Airlines, and Virgin America -- will be considered.

Some people are skeptical about AMR being an acquirer while in BK.

Has anyone noticed-as stated in other forums-that when AA filed for BK it had $4Billion and now it has about $5Billion? Although it's a far-fetched my opinion thought, I believe American will keep it's name. B6 and Virgin, I believe won't change their names. Don't know anything about Alaska, other than its stock is over $36. US will change its name in a second. Which leaves F9, and last I heard it was heading into another BK. Given that US' buddy, Republic-or please tell me they aren't the same Republic that are outsourced US aircraft-wants to sell F9, this may make AMR a potential acquirer.

But then again, we could get a surprise and the airline that keeps crying 'merger' may actually get a real wolf.

 

[etops1]

I understand what AA offers usair. I cant say the same back. Lets face it there is a host of other airlines that offer AA so much more than the headaches surrounding usair and its fractured employee groups, and its old airplanes.

Jetblue offers a world around JFK, while usiar gave that to Delta. Alaska offers the west coast and Seattle. That VS PHL, CLT, DCA, and PHX offers AA nothing to write home or help building a profitable carrier.

Old Airplanes ?? And what old airplanes would those be ? The 767 -200 ? AA has those . 757 ? AA has them as well . 737-300/400 ?? AA has some old ass MD -80 . Keep your trap shut if you don't know what your talking about . You sound silly . Also , Alaska just announced today that they are not interested in talking to AMR . They are fine on their own . You seem to know nothing of what your talking about . Just blah blah blah coming from you .

 

[wings396]

I understand what AA offers usair. I cant say the same back. Lets face it there is a host of other airlines that offer AA so much more than the headaches surrounding usair and its fractured employee groups, and its old airplanes.

Jetblue offers a world around JFK, while usiar gave that to Delta. Alaska offers the west coast and Seattle. That VS PHL, CLT, DCA, and PHX offers AA nothing to write home or help building a profitable carrier.

Old airplanes? You better do your homework on that one son.
So Alaska and some west coast stuff offers more than
CLT,PHL,& DCA? I think that it would be best if you put the bottle down prior to your next post.