I Predict Usairways Liquidation This Feb.

[jack mama]

why is the business plan based on $44 per barrel. they should have the worse case senario in there. it seems they have already short sided themselves again!

but then again they probably couldn't have gotten the atsb and ge to agree to the cash drain if they put realistic conditions in the formulas!

 

[Trip Confirmed]

Personally, I think it will be WAY be before February.






I have to agree.

 

[eolesen]

why is the business plan based on $44 per barrel. they should have the worse case senario in there. it seems they have already short sided themselves again!

[post="192131"][/post]​

That's sort of like saying "why didn't we expect airplanes being used as missles?" during the 9/11 investigation...

Fuel is one area I'd cut the finance people some slack. Worse case is taking the worst situation known, and adding some padding. Fuel hadn't traded above $50 before, so up until this month, $45 was considered they worst case...

I'm sure folks are now running models at $60 and $65/barrel...

 

[Harry Callahan]

Personally, I think it will be WAY be before February.
I have to agree.

[post="192146"][/post]​

Me to...

 

[funguy2]

The key here is "Hinted". Don't companies do this "hinting" all the time when they want to make someone or a specific group think that they are going in the right direction. Bronner has a lot of money tied up and even though he says it's less than 1 percent of his portfoilo, it would still put a big black mark on his resume. If he can make the lenders think he is on the right track, then he might buy some time to recoup some of his investment.

[post="192106"][/post]​

Well, both National Airlines (of LAS) and Midway Airlines (of RDU) "hinted" for months about potential investors, which kept their BK judges granting extentions. The difference is that Midway and National never named the "mystery" investors... Here, we do have a name... However, I don't recall Bronner hinting anything about providing more financing... I believe his latest "hint" was to liquidate US Airways and form 'Bama Air.

 

[funguy2]

Fuel is one area I'd cut the finance people some slack. Worse case is taking the worst situation known, and adding some padding. Fuel hadn't traded above $50 before, so up until this month, $45 was considered they worst case...

I'm sure folks are now running models at $60 and $65/barrel...

[post="192160"][/post]​

If you are expecting the finance guys to run models at $5 and $10/bbl over the current price, why would you not expect them to have done the same when the plan was created at $44/bbl?

At any rate, UAIRQ's likelihood of demise increases with every penny of oil increase. UAIRQ has now tapped all short-term cost savings potentials. Any new cost-savings will take time to implement, like the 2.5 years it took to implement the Transformation Plan.

 

[eolesen]

If you are expecting the finance guys to run models at $5 and $10/bbl over the current price, why would you not expect them to have done the same when the plan was created at $44/bbl?

[post="192348"][/post]​

For the same reason flood plain maps are re-evaluated whenever a 100 year storm occurs twice in a five year period. Whenever the worst-case is experienced and proven to be inadequate, you have no choice but to raise the bar.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

For the same reason flood plain maps are re-evaluated whenever a 100 year storm occurs twice in a five year period. Whenever the worst-case is experienced and proven to be inadequate, you have no choice but to raise the bar.

[post="192440"][/post]​

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

"E",
Your recent forum "pop ups" , are refreshing !!!

("cautiously) keep it going" !!!!!!!!!

NH/BB's

 

[ClueByFour]

David Bronner has publicly hinted that if this happens, he was interested in providing exit financing. In my opinion, this could lead to the company becoming privately held.

When did he say this? Before or after he quite publicly stated that the airline was headed for liquidation? Cite, please/.

The purpose of the immediate employee cost cuts was to buy the airline time to implement operational changes such as training consolidation, IT implementation, lower distribution costs, a new website, the FLL strategy, PHL rolling hub, two more CLT banks, DCA point-to-point, affiliate carrier RJ expansion, GoFares, more transatlantic service, etc. These moves take time and are more like a “marathonâ€￾ where cash flow relief is a “sprintâ€￾.

The company has had since the last BK to do all of this, and yet waited until now? How many times does it take to fool a sucker?

 

[repeet]

ClueByFour
Posted Today, 09:13 AM

The company has had since the last BK to do all of this, and yet waited until now? How many times does it take to fool a sucker?

Well, the Mechanics and Related aren't fooled. The CWA isn't fooled. The Flight Attendants don't appear to be fooled. And we're about to find out if the Pilots are fooled.

Apparently the only ones truly being fooled is "smart money". But it has been obvious to M&R for about a decade now, that US Airways had been set up as a feeding trough for executives. So that they can hop on and off, and suck out some of its' wealth.

And really, that wasn't any business of the employees, not as long as we got our negotiated share too.

It's up to the Board of Directors and the Stock Holders to care about, and regulate such actions. Just as they have to approve all of the Labor Contracts. Apparently they seemed quite happy with the situation.

However, the substance of US Airways has become so emaciated, that management feels that they can steal their gravy from the employees cut. It's becoming obvious who the fools are.

So now, won't "smart money" be "fooled" when we, the employees, are asked to agree to make cuts permanent, and we say NO!