Delta will survive AND thrive

[767jetz]

It is very apparent that World is either an employee or has more miles than he knows what to do with.

Interesting how WT won't respond to the fact that he is a hypocrite, and that during UA's BK he was one of the top 3 bashers and flamers on the UA board. Isn't it?

 

[jbguppy]

Interesting how WT won't respond to the fact that he is a hypocrite, and that during UA's BK he was one of the top 3 bashers and flamers on the UA board. Isn't it?

Maybe he is an attorney, you know, bury them under thousands of pages of useless discovery to keep them busy.

World, it doesn't matter how much you type, your credibility is shot because you only acknowledge that which supports your rosy view of DAL.

JBG

 

[WorldTraveler]

You obviously don't read very well because I laid out pretty clearly the issues that got DL into trouble. But when someone like you wants to discredit someone's point, you would rather resort to namecalling than debate the facts at hand.

As for my comments on UA's reorganization, I will remind you that UA had been in bankruptcy for nearly 3 YEARS by the time DL filed. If DL can't figure out how to get it right after just 2 YEARS, I'll walk away from any loyalty to them.

And to add to my point, there are few analysts that believe that UA has done what it takes to be a viable, long-term carrier. But as I've said before, I will not bash UA as long as someone doesn't bring it up. If you keep bringing it up, I'll have no choice but to respond.

 

[DLFlyer31]

Delta never was given the choice industry routes and never had the access to the big cities in the US

False. DL got a huge LAX presence in the Western merger only to squander it. DL got a huge presence in Chicago when they picked up C&S in the 50's. DL squandered that too. DL had an opportunity to lock-up ATL after Eastern died, but instead allowed Valujet (Airtran) in the door. Airtran will soon have almost 20% of the ATL market. DL has had plenty of opportunities in big cities....they've simply squandered them.

However, DL’s huge fleet of regional jets will ensure that markets without nonstop service but could have an RJ flight will probably get one from one of DL’s partners and that DL will have abundant capacity to feed its international network.

You do realize that DL loses hundreds of millions of dollars on its regional operations each year? Comair alone lost over $100 million for DL last year.

You will see Delta becoming much more of a 1st tier carrier than it has been in the past.

I hope you are right, but currently the changes DL management is making are mostly cosmetic. DL's service is still quite poor. First class is embarrassing and BizElite is worn down.

Boeing has no choice but to build a plane that meets Delta’s needs. Boeing will build it and Delta will fly it.

You do realize that the DL pilots and management have already agreed on a payscale for the EMB190? It's one of the few areas that they have made progress on during negotiations.

DL does need a 100 seater. But they can't wait five to ten years for Boeing to develop one. By then, other carriers will have flooded DL's markets with EMB190's.

Keep in mind, the relatioship between DL and Boeing has soured. Boeing is less than pleased that DL cancelled/deferred a lot of planes, while buying up tons of RJ's. I'm sure DL will buy planes from Boeing again, but don't expect Boeing to go out of their way. They don't need Delta.

Because it still has a very large fleet of regional jets of all types, Delta is in very good shape to become an extraordinarily strong international airline while giving up very little of its domestic network through aircraft downsizing.

You do realize that DL will still be retiring another 40 domestic aircraft in the next year which will further reduce the size of DL's network.

Not to mention that all this international growth is a guarantee of profits. AA, UA, CO and NW all have much higher percentages of revenue from international operations and they are still struggling.


It's funny. A year ago, WT was saying that DL wouldn't go BK and that BK was a death sentence. Now, DL is in BK and WT has a very rosy outlook.

 

[767jetz]

You obviously don't read very well because I laid out pretty clearly the issues that got DL into trouble.

Well, I for one read your post carefully. Obviously your position is biased since you are a supporter of Delta. That's your prerogative, and I don't have a problem with your opinions. (Although I do disagree somewhat.) I just find it interesting that you were one of the loudest purveyors of negativity toward UA, and now you try to seem so objective when the shoe is on the other foot. That just ooooozzzes of hypocrite.

As for my comments on UA's reorganization, I will remind you that UA had been in bankruptcy for nearly 3 YEARS by the time DL filed. If DL can't figure out how to get it right after just 2 YEARS, I'll walk away from any loyalty to them.

However, you seem to keep leaving out some very important facts in your criticism of UA. Not the least of which is that UA effectively had 2 bankruptcy proceedings. The first 1.5 years was wasted thanks to our government and the ATSB, whose constantly moving targets and hoops made it impossible to obtain. After final denial, the process for UA started all over again. Had the ATSB made it clear from the start that they were intent on going against the mandate of congress, and had no intention of ever approving UA's application, UA could have moved directly into phase 2 and would have finished the restructuring in half the time.

So your constant insistance that UA took an unreasonable 3 years to reorganize is not even close to being an objective view.

And to add to my point, there are few analysts that believe that UA has done what it takes to be a viable, long-term carrier.

Yes, yes, we know. And these are the same "analysts" who were wrong about everything pertaining to UA, every step of the way, almost without exception.

 

[LCC_#1]

But at least he won't be lonely. It would probably be the same cave as USA320pilot! The two of them could shoot the $h1t for eternity, and pat each other on the back for their brilliant speculations on other people's fate!

BTW, where did he go? You know, it's alittle boring now on the US boards.

I hope only the best for DAL. This is but one man's opinion, but I do feel a shake-out, merger wise, with a potential DAL/UAL or DAL/NWA. But with GE as a seemingly big equation, I feel they will put conditions on any financial merger deal by requiring aircraft givebacks as they did at US. Although many may argue, creditor seem to feel there is still too much capacity in the industry. US Airways had to shed 50-60 ac for their deal. (yes, ouch). I can't see GE NOT asking the same.

Please correct me if I am wrong about the leverage GE has where DAL is concerned.

Good luck, guys..been there, done that..TWICE.

 

[767jetz]

BTW, where did he go? You know, it's alittle boring now on the US boards.

A little off topic, but he did show up here last month after this particular post. Quite predictably I might add. But then disappeared again.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL Flyer,
just a few rebuttals.

I was not thrilled that DL pulled down its LAX presence in the early 90s. However, DL returned to ATL to build it and they did. If you think DL squandred EA's failure, you obviously don't have any idea what really happened. DL built the world's largest hub by a very comfortable margin and one that was long considered the most profitable. DL will be back in LAX since the west coast looks more promising that out east now.

Yes, I am aware that regional operations have lost money for DL. It is the same cost/revenue problem as at mainline. As total system revenues have fallen, the amount that can be prorated to the connection carriers has too. And DL allowed its connection carriers to become too costly without intervening earlier. I personally prefer to fly Comair more than any other regional airline probably seconded by Skywest but DL has had to partner w/ carriers like Mesa and Republic in order to get costs down. By shrinking the amount of domestic capacity, the regional carriers will still carry passengers; the total ticket price and the portion allocated to the regional carriers will be larger.

I'm aware that DL is still removing a/c from the fleet but they are flying their existing fleet much harder. DL still has total ASMs should drop about 3% while aircraft in the fleet drop more than 10%. That says to me that DL wasn't using its fleet as effectively as it could but they are doing that now. I would presume that, other things aside, pilots would rather see those 767s be flown as many hours as possible since those a/c offer more earning potential for pilots than smaller domestic aircraft.

My point about the depth of DL's domestic RJ is to say that DL has the ability to more than adequately cover all of its routes with the RJs it has in place plus the 70 seaters that they are getting of both the Bombardier and Embraer variety. I would still rather fly a mainline airplane flown by DL crew members but reality is what it is.

I wasn't aware that DL had agreed w/ ALPA on 190 rates. I would love to see the 190 at DL being flown by DL pilots. The point is still that Boeing has to build a viable 100 seater. It is very more management on Boeing and Airbus's part that they failed to replace the entry level airliner that is the building block of domestic service for airlines around the world.

767,
I'm sorry you see criticism of UA as criticism of you personally. It is not. There are many things that could be said about UA's 1st bankruptcy but it has passed and I am willing to let it rest. Like it or not, the world is not enamored with UA's turnaround plan but I am also willing to let it rest and see how it plays out. I have made valid comments about UA and I have never posted something that some other analyst has not agreed with.

I am not interested in bashing in anyone. If you see my comments as bashing, I suggest you turn your head and look away. Until it becomes apparent what future UA will have, I'll hold my comments unless they are solicited. Right now, UA appears to be in the post-BK honeymoon when things should work. It will likely take a couple years for it to become obvious how UA will fare.

You can see my comments about DL as rosy or fanciful if you like. Instead of calling other people hypocrites for their comments, I can and will produce valid points that I believe support my contention that DL can and will turn itself around. No one wanted to believe DL or any other carrier would have to file bankruptcy. DL did if for no other reason that they were too slow in kicking off their recovery plan. The reason you see DL moving at warp speed now is because they cannot afford to be caught behind the 8 ball if the bottom falls out again. They stand a very good chance of continuing to get support from their lenders if they are well on their way to a successful turnaround.

I continue to contend for very good reasons that DL will recover
quite nicely.

 

[Deleted by Moderator]

Too bad the analysts don't agree with that. Delta will probably be the first to bite the dust.


Delta Playing Catch Up

 

[Borescope]

However, you seem to keep leaving out some very important facts in your criticism of UA. Not the least of which is that UA effectively had 2 bankruptcy proceedings. The first 1.5 years was wasted thanks to our government and the ATSB, whose constantly moving targets and hoops made it impossible to obtain. After final denial, the process for UA started all over again. Had the ATSB made it clear from the start that they were intent on going against the mandate of congress, and had no intention of ever approving UA's application, UA could have moved directly into phase 2 and would have finished the restructuring in half the time.

So your constant insistance that UA took an unreasonable 3 years to reorganize is not even close to being an objective view.

We can all spin it anyway we want. The fact is, according to documents filed with the BK court, UA was under their jurisdiction for a period of 3+ years. But if it makes you feel better to say 1 1/2 or 2 and it make WT happy to call it 3, so be it. The rest of us know the facts.

 

[mistified]

If DL can't figure out how to get it right after just 2 YEARS, I'll walk away from any loyalty to them.

"Though declining to respond specifically to competitors' criticism, a Delta representative said the airline expects to emerge from bankruptcy and return to profitability in 2007".

 

[WorldTraveler]

Yes, mistified, DL is shooting for an 18 month BK visit. They are 1/3 through and have to iron out all remaining contractual issues (pilots, airports, aircraft) in the next 6 months and then come up with a plan of reorg. Of course deleted can find nothing in the article that says that analysts believe DL will bite the dust, let alone 1st but he apparently keeps trying. Pitiful child.

 

[Deleted by Moderator]

Here is what they DID say, old child:

It might have a tougher time than any of its peers

.

Delta has been the slowest to get things done.

Delta faces other problems. In particular, its revenue per available seat mile of 9.33 cents is the lowest of any major carrier.

"A Delta pilot agreement is going to be very difficult to get right now, because the pilots feel they've already given enough and because of the talk of ending pensions," Miller says. "Delta has said for several years that it wants to keep the pensions. It used that as a tool to get concessions last year and the year before. But now they're saying the pensions need to be done away with, as well."

A pilot deal is only one piece of the puzzle for Delta," Miller says. "They have about 100 more pieces, including flight-attendant costs, maintenance costs, and whether they will have any sort of fuel-management strategy.

If that pilot deal was done today with the numbers on the table, Delta would not still be able to compete with other carriers their size. Competitive carriers have lowered costs to a huge degree, while Delta has not.

Since January 2001, Delta has lost $12.6 billion, including $3.8 billion in 2005.

"I still think simplified fares are stupid [and] I think Delta got what it deserved." Smisek said, apparently referring to the airline's bankruptcy filing.

Delta's move to cease requiring a Saturday-night stay to get a lower fare was "criminally insane"

"a stronger DAL." But he commented: "I guess I should have put a question mark next to that."

Delta needs a little adult supervision.

Does this sound like the analysts believe this airline is a sound company to you? Delta is in a heap of trouble and if the people running this company are all thinking like WT, the company is doomed.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Thank you for bothering to quote each ridiculous sentence so that you can demonstrate your complete inability to make any rational judgments about what you read. The article was obviously written by someone as irrational in their disdain for Delta as you. And full of factual inaccuracies:

Fact: DL has achieved 80% of its cost cutting targets and it has not even been in bankruptcy six months. US took two bankruptcies, UA hadn't achieved squat in six months, and NW has yet to finalize agreements with any of its labor groups nor has it completed its fleet restructuring.

Fact: DL's restructuring plan is intended at current fuel prices to generate profitability well in excess of any other carrier's, most of which do not even acknowledge fuel prices at $60/bbl. But don't take my word for it. Read the plan for yourself on Delta.com.

Fact: Delta's creditors and lenders, not the analysts, are overseeing DL's restructuring. And those lenders have loaned DL more than $1 BILLION in excess of the value of their underlying assets. No other airline has ever been given more money to restructure its operations. Period. DL's creditors and lenders have a VERY HIGH degree of confidence in their ability to restructure.

Fact: Smisek is an executive at Continental, not an analyst. I wouldn't expect him to say anything constructive about Delta; my six year old can figure that out so what's blocking your ability to see that? And don't forget that AA's execs (not exactly DL's best friends) have acknowledged that Simplifares not only didn't result in the revenue loss they expected but actually generated more revenue. CO is the only airline that continues to insist that Simplifares is the problem while failing to recognize that B6 set up light housekeeping in their EWR hub.

Your last two quotes are so subjective no rational person would even consider them as coming from rational person which is a good description of Jeff Smisek and execs at JetBlue and AirTran.

How about we include something from someone who is respected in the industry rather being a competitor:

Aviation consultant Mike Boyd agreed that while Delta still has work to do, its prospects are good. "Keep in mind they are a little bit behind," Boyd said. "Mr. Grinstein picked up a difficult situation when he took over. He had to pick up an ocean liner that had come to a dead stop. But once they get the pilots in line and make the necessary fleet adjustments, they will be off and running."

My original post was completely in agreement with that. But don't let the facts get in the way. No wonder you have been deleted and are also ignored. I'll hold out hope for a little while longer than you can be rehabilitated but I'm losing hope.

 

[Deleted by Moderator]

I'll continue to be a thorn in Delta's side(actually just YOURS) for as long as Delta can't deliver. You spent a lot of posts slamming United and I intend to do the same to Delta.

So everyone who doesn't wear rose colored glasses is to be "ignored"? Funny that most everyone is laughing at YOU my friend.

Delta is in BIG trouble but don't let the FACTS get in your way.