Bullshite, Skippy. Try reading for a change -- I indicated directionality three times:
You can claim that I've never done work in Network Planning or related areas, but that doesn't make it true. I was part of the operations efficiency practice, and doing directional analysis of customer flows was just one of many things we did for anyone willing to pay the €1500/day fee plus travel expenses...
Even if you did work in Network Planning at DL, clearly they didn't start doing anything remotely innovative until after you were in RM.
no, O&D is NOT directional unless you specifically note that it is.
You worked in consulting OPERATIONAL areas... you don't have experience in network planning or revenue mgmt.
Your statement about beach traffic being half of US traffic is still wrong. Even on a Japan point of origin basis, Hawaii makes up 30% of total US traffic
and if you really knew what you were talking about you would know that even the Japan-US mainland market is directional - 67% of the traffic is Japan originating. While 95% of Japan-Hawaii traffic is Japan originating leaving the entire Japan- US market to be 83% Japan originating.
and DL has higher percentage of Japan originating traffic than UA and larger size than the Japanese carriers (whose percentage of Japan originating traffic DL mirrors) which is precisely why the Japanese carriers have tried so hard to do whatever they could to cause DL's NRT to hub to become worthless.
The whole HND access bait and switch was just part of the same process but the US government, looking out for DL's interests, told the Japanese government that the US is not interested in any improvement in HND access unless it is meaningfully large to benefit DL.
so, in fact, Japan US traffic is far more than 50% Japanese originating just like from most countries... the US is a HUGE destination FOR foreign tourists - whether mainland or Hawaii.
why don't you just admit that you have walked into another conversation about which you are not qualified to speak and just walk away... you've done it so many times it is predictable.
no one doubts your credentials about IT related issues but when you try and stick your nose into network and revenue mgmt. related discussions, you ALWAYS show that you don't know what you are talking about....
other than trying to act like you are some big smuck on a stick, I don't know why you keep making a fool of yourself.
I personally think yes.
SEA has always had a large two carrier presence. UA has been pretty large at SEA in the 80s/90s and WN has been pretty big too. So far the ones to back out of markets have been UA/WN not DL/AS
I also think the idea Delta is trying to build in SEA is a different animal than what AS has. JMO though.
SEA is a large market and since AS has proven that it is willing to increase capacity in order to keep DL from gaining more share, it is larger than what it was when DL arrived - even with DL's increased share of the market.
and it is still not SEA or any other airport's job to pick winners and losers in the market. all they have to do is make sure that they receive the financial commitments necessary to protect their investment in facilities.
Any airline can build a flash hub and crash and there is no assurance that AS will be able long-term to remain as large at SEA as it is now.
SEA is not going to walk away from the role of becoming the 3rd largest US transpac airport behind LAX and SFO - with LAX being predominantly foreign carrier dominated, SFO being closer to half and half between UA and Asian carriers, and SEA having a much ihgher percentage of DL (US carrier) controlled transpac than either LAX or SFO.
All SEA has to do is make sure there are financial protections in place to ensure the investment is paid for long-term.
given DL's investment in a new terminal at SLC alongside SEA, it is clear that DL sees enormous potential in the western US and especially Asia.
meto,
forgive the little side show on Japan. It is simply an attempt by the DL haters to try and throw anything they can to argue that DL's Japanese operation is money-losing, a failure, shrinking etc.
not one of them correctly uses data to correctly speak to the situation in Japan which is driven by a declining yen - it hit lows against the dollar yet again.
a low foreign carrier hurts LOCAL traffic and affects the viability of the hub. but weak foreign traffic is not targeted at DL alone. not even the Japanese gov't can do that.
A weak yen hurts ALL carriers because the US is much less viable for ALL carriers.
DL's changes to its TPAC network are based on the reality that Japan as an origin market is shrinking and with it the economics of the hub change.
The changes to DL's Japan market and to its NRT market equally affect JL and NH as well as AA and UA the same.
The only difference is that AA, DL, and UA can all overfly Japan - DL overflying its own NRT hub while AA and UA overfly its partners.
there is no evidence nor will there be that a weakened yen hurts DL any more than any other US carrier. Japanese carriers who cannot overfly their own hubs will be hurt worse than US carriers.
