Delta negotiating major SEA gate expansion

[WorldTraveler]

Looks like WT has been very busy this afternoon logging in all those duplicate usernames.

wanna tell us what usernames those might be?

plz be sure and cite IP numbers.

you would LOVE for the mods to find a matching IP number to match WT's - but you'll be spending a LONG time looking - but hey it will keep you busy.

go for it.

 

[BABABOOY]

Back to the subject....SEA
 

Sea-Tac to Delta, Alaska: This airport is big enough for the both of you
 
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/2014/11/sea-tac-to-delta-alaska-this-airport-is-big-enough.html

 

[metopower]

Baba stop posting facts. You are on subject and that won't make most people following this thread happy.

 

[WorldTraveler]

for someone who not only started the thread but has argued against the internet hysteria that SEA did not have enough room for DL and that SEA residents would be fiercely loyal to AS to the point of driving DL out of town, this is great news... and confirmation that no airport in its right mind would turn its back on the opportunity to join the ranks of the largest int'l airports in the country.



"At the beginning of the year, Delta announced it would make Sea-Tac one of its major hubs for Asia.

"Cooper said that's a big deal in the industry. Especially because over the last 10 years it's been more likely an airline of that size would drop a hub instead of add one.

"In response to and in anticipation of increased traffic, Sea-Tac is expanding.

"There are plans to build a new International Arrivals Facility and renovate and expand the north part of the airport. Those expansions will include providing more gates for airlines. The North Sea-Tac Airport Renovation should be completed by the summer of 2020."


one need only look at JFK to see what DL has done there with about the same number of gates as what it seeks to have at SEA.

supposedly DL is also indicating that its long-awaited RFP for new aircraft will be announced at its Investor Day conference in early December.

given DL and SEA's statements on the subject, the news could be enormous regarding DL's west coast plans as well.

and, yes, meto, that is BAD news for some people on this forum.

 

[topDawg]

there are dozens of cities that COULD HAVE had 717s... and ORD is also a heavy 717 city.

uh...ORD has a total of two 717s. The rest is M88s/M90s and 757s from Atlanta. So nope. Try again and give me another. 
 
Again we are looking for a city that is a line station, twoish hours away and is mostly 319 flights from ATL. 

 

but your point is still wrong that DL chose EWR for operational reasons at the expense of what made sense for the market.

 I didn't say it was JUST operational. I said the plan has always been to mix ATL-EWR back up with some large aircraft at peak times once the 717 fleet got large enough. You don't believe that I honestly do not care. More proof that you have no real idea what is happening on the inside. (though in your outsourcing/airline to airline comparison/the lack of compliance with DALPAs contract etc. talks you have already proven you have zero of a clue......so this is really just an add on) 
 

Since international data isn't available from the DOT, you really have nothing to refute it with, Skippy.

He always has a trump card.....Delta wins. Those two words are enough to refute anything in WTs world. 
 

for someone who not only started the thread but has argued against the internet hysteria that SEA did not have enough room for DL and that SEA residents would be fiercely loyal to AS to the point of driving DL out of town, this is great news... and confirmation that no airport in its right mind would turn its back on the opportunity to join the ranks of the largest int'l airports in the country.



"At the beginning of the year, Delta announced it would make Sea-Tac one of its major hubs for Asia.

"Cooper said that's a big deal in the industry. Especially because over the last 10 years it's been more likely an airline of that size would drop a hub instead of add one.

"In response to and in anticipation of increased traffic, Sea-Tac is expanding.

"There are plans to build a new International Arrivals Facility and renovate and expand the north part of the airport. Those expansions will include providing more gates for airlines. The North Sea-Tac Airport Renovation should be completed by the summer of 2020."


one need only look at JFK to see what DL has done there with about the same number of gates as what it seeks to have at SEA.

supposedly DL is also indicating that its long-awaited RFP for new aircraft will be announced at its Investor Day conference in early December.

given DL and SEA's statements on the subject, the news could be enormous regarding DL's west coast plans as well.

and, yes, meto, that is BAD news for some people on this forum.

ahem, I know letting facts in here is stupid but the proposed "growth" at SEA is more for AS than DL. the north side gates are all going to AS. (who isn't giving up any space to get them other than a little bit of space on D so AA/US will fit in together)
 
A concourse will get FIS but AFAIK wont be any expanding any gates. So for the most part, SEA isn't changing anything.

 

[eolesen]

no, I didn't misquote.

you just never bothered to mention directionality before.

Bullshite, Skippy. Try reading for a change -- I indicated directionality three times:
 

For August 2014, JP->HNL/ITO/KOA/GUM accounted for ~165K pax across all airlines.

For August 2014, JP-> was ~285K pax.

Carried across the year, the Beach accounts for 50% of all JP-US traffic.

You can claim that I've never done work in Network Planning or related areas, but that doesn't make it true. I was part of the operations efficiency practice, and doing directional analysis of customer flows was just one of many things we did for anyone willing to pay the €1500/day fee plus travel expenses...

Even if you did work in Network Planning at DL, clearly they didn't start doing anything remotely innovative until after you were in RM.

 

[robbedagain]

baba   thanks for the article   although SEA may be big enough for both  is the population gonna be able to keep DL as large as they intend to be  for extended period of time

 

[eolesen]

SEA might be big enough, but the bigger question is whether or not DL can keep customers. AS is clearly the better carrier from a service perspective.

 

[topDawg]

baba   thanks for the article   although SEA may be big enough for both  is the population gonna be able to keep DL as large as they intend to be  for extended period of time

I personally think yes. 
 
SEA has always had a large two carrier presence. UA has been pretty large at SEA in the 80s/90s and WN has been pretty big too. So far the ones to back out of markets have been UA/WN not DL/AS 
 
 
I also think the idea Delta is trying to build in SEA is a different animal than what AS has. JMO though.  

 

[WorldTraveler]

Bullshite, Skippy. Try reading for a change -- I indicated directionality three times:
 

You can claim that I've never done work in Network Planning or related areas, but that doesn't make it true. I was part of the operations efficiency practice, and doing directional analysis of customer flows was just one of many things we did for anyone willing to pay the €1500/day fee plus travel expenses...

Even if you did work in Network Planning at DL, clearly they didn't start doing anything remotely innovative until after you were in RM.

no, O&D is NOT directional unless you specifically note that it is.

You worked in consulting OPERATIONAL areas... you don't have experience in network planning or revenue mgmt.

Your statement about beach traffic being half of US traffic is still wrong. Even on a Japan point of origin basis, Hawaii makes up 30% of total US traffic

and if you really knew what you were talking about you would know that even the Japan-US mainland market is directional - 67% of the traffic is Japan originating. While 95% of Japan-Hawaii traffic is Japan originating leaving the entire Japan- US market to be 83% Japan originating.

and DL has higher percentage of Japan originating traffic than UA and larger size than the Japanese carriers (whose percentage of Japan originating traffic DL mirrors) which is precisely why the Japanese carriers have tried so hard to do whatever they could to cause DL's NRT to hub to become worthless.

The whole HND access bait and switch was just part of the same process but the US government, looking out for DL's interests, told the Japanese government that the US is not interested in any improvement in HND access unless it is meaningfully large to benefit DL.
 
so, in fact, Japan US traffic is far more than 50% Japanese originating just like from most countries... the US is a HUGE destination FOR foreign tourists - whether mainland or Hawaii.

why don't you just admit that you have walked into another conversation about which you are not qualified to speak and just walk away... you've done it so many times it is predictable.

no one doubts your credentials about IT related issues but when you try and stick your nose into network and revenue mgmt. related discussions, you ALWAYS show that you don't know what you are talking about....

other than trying to act like you are some big smuck on a stick, I don't know why you keep making a fool of yourself.
 

I personally think yes. 
 
SEA has always had a large two carrier presence. UA has been pretty large at SEA in the 80s/90s and WN has been pretty big too. So far the ones to back out of markets have been UA/WN not DL/AS 
 
 
I also think the idea Delta is trying to build in SEA is a different animal than what AS has. JMO though.

SEA is a large market and since AS has proven that it is willing to increase capacity in order to keep DL from gaining more share, it is larger than what it was when DL arrived - even with DL's increased share of the market.

and it is still not SEA or any other airport's job to pick winners and losers in the market. all they have to do is make sure that they receive the financial commitments necessary to protect their investment in facilities.

Any airline can build a flash hub and crash and there is no assurance that AS will be able long-term to remain as large at SEA as it is now.

SEA is not going to walk away from the role of becoming the 3rd largest US transpac airport behind LAX and SFO - with LAX being predominantly foreign carrier dominated, SFO being closer to half and half between UA and Asian carriers, and SEA having a much ihgher percentage of DL (US carrier) controlled transpac than either LAX or SFO.

All SEA has to do is make sure there are financial protections in place to ensure the investment is paid for long-term.

given DL's investment in a new terminal at SLC alongside SEA, it is clear that DL sees enormous potential in the western US and especially Asia.


meto,
forgive the little side show on Japan. It is simply an attempt by the DL haters to try and throw anything they can to argue that DL's Japanese operation is money-losing, a failure, shrinking etc.

not one of them correctly uses data to correctly speak to the situation in Japan which is driven by a declining yen - it hit lows against the dollar yet again.

a low foreign carrier hurts LOCAL traffic and affects the viability of the hub. but weak foreign traffic is not targeted at DL alone. not even the Japanese gov't can do that.

A weak yen hurts ALL carriers because the US is much less viable for ALL carriers.

DL's changes to its TPAC network are based on the reality that Japan as an origin market is shrinking and with it the economics of the hub change.

The changes to DL's Japan market and to its NRT market equally affect JL and NH as well as AA and UA the same.
The only difference is that AA, DL, and UA can all overfly Japan - DL overflying its own NRT hub while AA and UA overfly its partners.

there is no evidence nor will there be that a weakened yen hurts DL any more than any other US carrier. Japanese carriers who cannot overfly their own hubs will be hurt worse than US carriers.

 

[Kev3188]

 

Any airline can build a flash hub and crash...

AS' SEA operation is hardly a "flash."

...and there is no assurance that AS will be able long-term to remain as large at SEA as it is now.

...Nor is there any assurance that DL will be able to succeed at it's current (and planned) levels long term...

Life's funny that way.

 

[WorldTraveler]

nowhere did I say that AS has a flash hub.

and, yes, I am fully aware that DL's SEA hub could fail long-term.

but given DL's track record of CREATING hubs, I doubt seriously that POS is terribly concerned about the long-term viability of DL's hub.... but they STILL have to implement protections - just the way any public owned, long-term investment that involves the private sector just work.

let's remember that DL was #3 out of 3 in NYC not that long ago and is now the largest passenger carrier from NYC and the largest at both LGA and JFK.
DL also has the lowest CASM among the big 3 and has proven that it can keep its TPAC operation profitable despite the enormous changes in the Japanese economy that have taken place.

and despite the fact that DL and AS overlap in some key markets, DL is focused on feeding the TPAC flights and serving the local market while AS is focused on the local market plus connecting each of those segments across their entire network. DL has SLC, MSP, and LAX to connect outside the west.

POS is correct. there is room for AS and DL at SEA and the two have very different strategies.

 

[BABABOOY]

baba   thanks for the article   although SEA may be big enough for both  is the population gonna be able to keep DL as large as they intend to be  for extended period of time

I believe we are winning/gaining customers everyday in the the SEA market. 
I also believe our numbers are proving that. 
If we keep running a safe RELIABLE air line.  I don't see why not. 
Besides our most excellent award winning customer service ;-)    It's no secret our on time and reliability are a big factor for customers when booking.

 

[WorldTraveler]

correct, baba.

DL not only on a systemwide basis provides a level of service that is the best competition that AS could have but DL matches or exceeds AS' level of service at SEA.

The only stat that the DOT reports on an airport specific basis is on-time and on that basis, DL has exceeded AS' SEA on-time for several months.

DL consistently has NO flights on the chronically late list of flights while AS has 3 SEA-SFO flights on that list right now.

oversales, baggage handling, and consumer complaints are not reported on an airport specific basis but in each of those categories AS and DL often are ranked right next to each other by the DOT - sometimes one is higher, sometimes the other is but the difference is minimal.

it is simply not possible to say by any subjective measure that AS or DL provide better service because statistically by the measures that the DOT uses, it is a virtual tie.

further, even by more subjective measures, DL compares very favorably with a larger FF program and network as well as % of seats with IFE from SEA etc.

AS is a very well run airline; DL is the best legacy competition that AS could face.

If DL wasn't as good as it was, DL's results from SEA wouldn't be what they are.

SEA is the enviable position of having two of the most customer-focused and profitable airlines in the industry fighting for a major piece of the market, even if AS and DL propose different strategies for serving that market.

specific to the expansion discussion, there were rumors that DL has picked up 4 more gates but that hasn't been confirmed publicly and DL hasn't released its domestic expansion plan for the summer of 2015 for any part of its system.

Further, there were also rumors that DL was working with SEA on a remote pad operation (likely for some large RJ flights esp. CR9s) that are part of DL's overall expansion plan. It is very possible that DL's growth from SEA will accelerate as they commit to a new facility and know that there is an end point to a pad operation.

JFK is also proof that DL is willing to run a split operation between facilities on a temporary basis and also to move aircraft on and off gates in order to maximize the output of the facility while minimizing construction costs.

 

[robbedagain]

baba   now with AS entered into BWI SEA market  do you foresee DL doing similar?  I do recall years ago FL had at least 1 or 2 nonstop to SEA but I don't think WN picked it up