700UW:
What you refuse to recognize, even you know it's true, is that industry fundamentals keep deteriorating. Do I like it? Nope, not one bit. However, that does not make management "liars".
Since Restructuring II let's look at some issues that have occured in about 1-year.
1. SARS.
2. Iraqi War.
3. Skyrocketing fuel prices that have jumped 40% year-over-year. Each one cent increase of fuel increase US Airways fuel expense by about $10 million per year.
4. Internet booking.
5. Southwest's entry into PHL.
6. Enormous LCC expansion.
Let's look at how AirTran, JetBlue, and Southwest have grown and where they’re headed:
2002 2003 2008 (1)
AirTran
Jets 51 67 158
Departures (2) 294 408 900
2002 2003 2008 (1)
JetBlue
Jets 5 44 173
Departures (2) 24 186 520
2002 2003 2008 (1)
Southwest
Jets 324 379 567
Departures (2) 2,600 2,800 4,252
Source: USA Today, Airlines listed
(1) – USA Today estimates
(2) – Average daily departures
700UW, the facts above does not make management lairs, it's cyclical and fundamental changes to the business that every legacy carrier is experiencing. SARS, the Iraqi War, and Fuel prices are all cyclical problems, but Southwest's arrival in PHL, LCC expansion, and Internet booking are all permanent structural changes to the industry that will depress yield forever.
Either US Airways changes the way it does business with management and labor creating the first every network carrier/LCC hybrid or the airline will fail, period.
Interestingly, Dow Jones published a report about this yesterday:
Former AMR CEO: Airlines Need Radical Restructuring
NEW YORK (Dow Jones) - Financial problems at "legacy airlines" are evidence of the fact that the industry needs to be radically restructured, said Donald Carty, former chairman and chief executive of AMR Corp. (AMR).
Speaking on CNBC Friday, Carty said new and profitable low-cost airlines have taught older companies that they need to reconsider their business model and relationships with unions.
For example, "for years and years" airlines have been fighting over market share at the expense of profitability, Carty said.
During the same conversation, AirTran Holdings Inc. (AAI) Chairman and Chief Executive Joe Leonard said that one of the problems in the industry is the gross mismatch between supply and demand.
That's why increases in ticket prices can't "stick," Leonard said.
To Leonard, that means the industry as a whole should be reviewing unprofitable routes and pare them back.
There is no short-term solution to rising energy costs, Leonard said. The only effective way for airlines to lower those costs is to upgrade their aircraft fleets.
Respectfully,
USA320Pilot