No argument here. From November 29, 2011, it was clear that the board had finally exhausted its patience with Arpey and his "bankruptcy is what failures do and we prefer to wait for the other airlines to be overly generous with their new contracts" strategy. Instead, the board ordered him to cram new contracts down the throats of, primarily, the pilots and the flight attendants. AA wanted to outsource 79-82 seat large RJs (finally agreed on the new industry-standard 76 seats). From the pilots and the FAs, AA wanted to sweep away some of the "work rules" that management said were inefficient.
AA wasn't broke and its business model wasn't broken as UA and DL had both merged and were showing promise of improvements with the same business model AA was using. They had just become bigger than AA. AA had amassed enough cash from various loans that it did not need to beg banks for debtor-in-possession financing.
Of course, bankruptcy law requires that all work groups give up equal percentages and thus, the fleet service and mechanics (who were already poorly paid) had to give up the same 17% of their labor costs.
If the SLI is handed to an arbitration panel, I don't see them trying to combine AA, US East and US West (America West). Instead, I see them taking a shortcut and dusting off Nicolau's already-prepared list from 2007. Nor do I see an arbitration panel starting from scratch and re-doing the US East and West integration all over again. It's already done.
You may be right, but I don't read those decisions as requiring that the 2007 list be ignored. It was a snapshot, as you say, of the US pilots as of the merger.
I'm not saying that the APA list and the NIC list will be combined just like the NIC list was created, only that they won't waste time and energy re-doing what Nicolau did in the last arbitration. The facts and circumstances of this merger (AA and US) are different from the facts and circumstances of the last merger (US and HP). The fact that a bunch of pilots tried to run away from an arbitration result with which they disagreed won't cause arbitrators to now ignore the existence of that list.
Like I said - you may be right, but Judge Silver has no authority when it comes to SLI arbitration of the APA and USAPA pilots. The Federal Arbitration Act declares arbitration off-limits to judicial interference. Until over-ruled by higher courts, the Judge's opinions control the damages suit between the US East and US West pilot groups - nobody's disputing that.
I merely predict that the APA list and the NIC list will be combined in a new arbitration later this year or next year. And nobody's going to be particularly happy with the result, except perhaps the America West (US West) pilots.