And so it begins..

[deltawatch]

When the merger does come and the system overlap is squeezed out, look for layoffs. I would imagine UA managers would have a better shot at hanging around than US managers. It's going to get ugly. Some employees have contract language on seniority and mergers, not management.

 

[767jetz]

I still think the best combo for US would be a merger with UA.

Although this statement might be true, this is not about what is best for US.

US is definitely NOT the best combo for UA, and Tilton knows it. That's why it hasn't happened yet. Plus, the internal problems at US currently seem insurmountable, so no one is interested in inheriting it. DL or CO is where his intention lies. And DL is only interested in NW or UA. UA already held informal talks with CO last year when US was going after DL. Additionally, even the hedge funds prefer a DL/UA combination. (Follow the $$$).

Therefore it is easy to see that the players in this round will be DL, NW, CO, and UA. US will either be on the sidelines, or may benefit slightly by the reduction of overlap from the mega mergers. (Just like AA and TWA were indirectly involved with the attempted acquisition of US by UA in 2001.) But this continuing obsession with a US merger with UA is still just a fantasy of the old USAirways.

 

[deltawatch]

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial believe that most major carriers lost money in the fourth quarter -- the airlines start reporting those results next week. Prospects for the new year are uncertain.

Airlines believe combining will let them eliminate redundant back-office functions, reservations and computer systems.

But the real payoff could lie in eliminating overlapping routes and hub airports. If Delta and UAL Corp.'s United Airlines combine, Delta could scale back on routes currently flown by both.

"It's all about reducing competition and having pricing power," said longtime airline consultant Darryl Jenkins.

 

[FlyUs]

Although this statement might be true, this is not about what is best for US.

US is definitely NOT the best combo for UA, and Tilton knows it. That's why it hasn't happened yet. Plus, the internal problems at US currently seem insurmountable, so no one is interested in inheriting it. DL or CO is where his intention lies. And DL is only interested in NW or UA. UA already held informal talks with CO last year when US was going after DL. Additionally, even the hedge funds prefer a DL/UA combination. (Follow the $$$).

Therefore it is easy to see that the players in this round will be DL, NW, CO, and UA. US will either be on the sidelines, or may benefit slightly by the reduction of overlap from the mega mergers. (Just like AA and TWA were indirectly involved with the attempted acquisition of US by UA in 2001.) But this continuing obsession with a US merger with UA is still just a fantasy of the old USAirways.

On this US board it is about what is best for US. As far as being an "obsession" with UA, Tilton has said he's interested in combining with a carrier that is strong in the NE and also has a hub in the South. US is #1 in the NE and #2 in the SE. So of course we're going to speculate about a merger between US and UA. They've tried to merge twice since 1996. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the two. There is also a lot of interesting talk about UA being carved up over at Airliners.net. And I wouldn't count AA to sit back and wait this out if consolidation does happen. Remember, anything can happen in this industry. While it may seem to you that our internal problems seem insurmountable, you may want to look in your own back yard. Our profit margins are the highest in the industry as a result of our merger with HP.

 

[Bear96]

. . . . Tilton has said he's interested in combining with a carrier that is strong in the NE and also has a hub in the South. US is #1 in the NE and #2 in the SE.

I know Tilton has opined endlessly, but generally, about "consolidation in the industry" and for UA. I was not aware, however, he had been so specific as to mention he is interested in combining UA with a carrier that has a hub in the South.

Do you have a link? I'd be interested in seeing it.

 

[deltawatch]

I know Tilton has opined endlessly, but generally, about "consolidation in the industry" and for UA. I was not aware, however, he had been so specific as to mention he is interested in combining UA with a carrier that has a hub in the South.

Do you have a link? I'd be interested in seeing it.

That was quoted in the press several months back. " big in NE - hub in the south".

Either DL or US. Most think DL.

 

[TechBoy]

3. IF UAL grabs CO, "royalties" (probably in CHOICE ROUTES) will be paid to NW, to release CO from their OBLIGATION to BIG RED.

Sorry but it doesn't work that way. If NW merges with DL (either as acquiror or acquired), NW loses its ability to block a CO deal. So no special "royalty" to NW.

 

[deltawatch]

Steenland (NW), warned that Northwest, based in suburban Eagan, can't control or predict what other carriers or airline shareholders might do.

"Doing nothing could be our worst alternative," he said. "If we wait to react to what others do we could be left with options that are undesirable or with no options at all.

"You can be sure that we are giving this very important issue the serious attention it deserves -- and that we will weigh carefully the strategic implications of each course of action available," he wrote.

LINK

 

[Be Careful What You Wish For.]

As much as Dougie is vilified here lets hope he is staying up late trying to put US in the driver seat.

These kinds of times is where the thought of "be careful what you wish for" came from.

 

[flybynite]

I still think the best combo for US would be a merger with UA.

I still think the best combo for US would be a merger with Northwest.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I still think the best combo for US would be a merger with Northwest.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From A US perspective, that may be true..."flybynite", BUT, NW has been "joined at the hip" with KLM for a Loooooong time, and is NOT about to upset that "apple cart"

NW/KLM = Sky team
Delta = Sky team
Air France= Sky team

NW/DL +KLM, and I'd imagine AF are all on the same IT network

Richard Andersen(DL) was the CEO of NW, just a few years back, and is VERY familiar with NW BOD's/Steenland, and everything NW.

With all due respect, there are a ZILLION reasons to STRONGLY expect a NW/DL "hook up" !!

 

[RowUnderDCA]

I'm curious about how much in the real world of boardroom politics is the following scenario:

Plenty of cash to purchase a carrier to make its shareholder's happy PLUS the ability of the purchased carrier to retain its identity, systems and the lion's share of corporate positions, including CEO?

Don't get me wrong, I'm beginning to think that the industry thinks that US is more likely to become Spirit with transatlantic operations, then it is to merge with a legacy, BUT

does the completely prostrate position that US might take with regard to brand, marketing and management systems significantly appealing enough to overcome the labor problems?

Finally, if for some reason, the pilots were to determine that their futures are likely to be much less appealing without a comprehensive compromise and they miraculously agree to some kind of resolution, would that labor situation, plus cash for NW shareholders (an assumption, I know) and the ability to retain NW's identity entirely make up for DL's greater size and reach?

 

[ual777fan]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From A US perspective, that may be true..."flybynite", BUT, NW has been "joined at the hip" with KLM for a Loooooong time, and is NOT about to upset that "apple cart"

NW/KLM = Sky team
Delta = Sky team
Air France= Sky team

NW/DL +KLM, and I'd imagine AF are all on the same IT network

Well if SkyTeam can manage it, would someone please get BA's crack staff and finally get the AA/BA computers synced up? For instance to reserve a seat on a AA/BA codeshare out of Heathrow, I have to log onto BA's website, punch in a unique reservation code and assign from there. AA's website can't or won't allow for AA/BA seat reservations. Plus, it also doesn't recognize OneWorld status automatically so you have to call up and beg for a "premium" seat. :down:

Richard Andersen(DL) was the CEO of NW, just a few years back, and is VERY familiar with NW BOD's/Steenland, and everything NW.

With all due respect, there are a ZILLION reasons to STRONGLY expect a NW/DL "hook up" !!

I can't imagine AA letting NWA go without a fight. AA wants a Pacific presence badly, considering most of the world's economic growth is going to come from China, Korea, Indochina, and India, it's not a bad thing to strive for. NWA has a major presence in these markets (in some cases, they are larger than UA) and their Tokyo hub is a major plus. NWA also has all brand new facilities in Detroit at its 100+ gate WorldPort which far outclass Terminal 3 at O'Hare, a massive 787 order and lots of 757's. Maybe there will even be enough surplus lift to finally get AUS those MIA and JFK flights we've wanted for years. I can dream about never having to go through Terminal B or 3 again right?

On the downside, what to do with all those Airbuses (I love the A330's 2-4-2 layout in back), DC-9's and NWA's collection of ancient 747's and DC-10's (which now only fly cargo?)? Could you find the 777 lift to replace the A330's? What would AA replace the A319's with as the 738 is too large? What would replace the -40's and -80's as those planes are really starting to get long in the tooth? Plus the fun of an ALPA/APA, AFPA/AFA and TWU/AMFA/IAM (or what's left of it) integration...

 

[JAMAKE1]

Bear:

At the last company meeting I was at in which company executives spoke, they said that the two airlines that UA would be the most interested in combining with is Continental and Delta, primarily for two reasons: A strong New York market concentration and a stronger presence in Latin America than what United currently has. US is not part of that equation...

 

[signals]

What do DAL, NWA and UAL have in common?

Read Story Here

US Airways' stocks dropped over 10 points in just over a week. What gives?

Far-fetched idea but US should merge with jetBlue or Southwest. I doubt we'll ever see it.

MOD NOTE: Hyperlink edited to reflect link to story--you may NOT promote other web sites here without express written permission of the board operators.