And so it begins..

[prechilill]

I agree.... but, again, it's PHL that really doesn't fit in the combo. Take NW + CO + LCC - PHL - random other reductions and that might go through.

Yeah, with a heavy LUV presence and the fact PHL is between DCA and NYC, it seems there isn't much room for CAL, UAL or DAL to use PHL effectively. NW+ CAL + LCC's Phx hub would work, but then that pretty much just leaves USAir the way it was before Parker bought them and I can't see Parker being able to make any money off of a deal like that. However, in the end, the money potential will drive each merger, not so much real world logic.

 

[FWAAA]

Heck, for that matter, I think the Feds would consider DL + AA, if the big guys would sweep the little jets out of the congested NE airspace and airports: crumple ASA and Comair's plane, leaving eagle's capacity for the combined system.

Small jets are going to be a bigger and bigger problem for congestion and fuel burn/per pax, IMO.

I agree completely. AMR is still the largest, but not by that much. UA's and DL's revenues have finally recovered to within striking distance of AA's.

And now that more and more China frequencies are becoming available, I no longer think that AA has to buy/merge/combine with NW to remain in the game. As every airline gets China access, it won't be as lucrative as before, when basically only UA and NW enjoyed that access. Same with LHR: I don't think it will be such a goldmine now that anyone can fly there for the price of slots.

AA and DL would mean 3 daily China nonstops (by 2009) and a huge fleet of widebody Boeings, lots of Europe and S America coverage, plus adequate coverage in Asia and here at home. No Australia but QF provides adequate access there thru OneWorld.

Lots of people keep posting about what the Justice Dep't will allow and what Justice won't allow; IMO, the antitrust regulators will approve the big six becoming three if that's what the legacies want to do. Sure, there will be some asset divestitures and asset trades - it will basically be a six-way deal. Incompatible fleets can be rectified, duplicative routes can be traded, etc.

The next few weeks will be fun to watch.

 

[diogenes]

Heck, for that matter, I think the Feds would consider DL + AA, if the big guys would sweep the little jets out of the congested NE airspace and airports: crumple ASA and Comair's plane, leaving eagle's capacity for the combined system.

Small jets are going to be a bigger and bigger problem for congestion and fuel burn/per pax, IMO.

Your point shows why free markets don't answer every question, and why reasonable regulation is necessary.

Pre 9/11, ATC delays were a regular deal, in large part because airlines transferred flying from big airplanes to little ones.

After 9/11, airlines parked a desertful of planes, and ATC delays went away.

Demand and frequency now exceeds pre-911 levels, and ATC delays are back.

Even if FAA started now, it'd take years to fully implement moderization programs.

In the interim, fewer and larger a/c's are the answer. The 'free market' has decided against the obvious answer, so delays on crappy a/c are what we have.

That's a solution?

Well yeah, to the execs laughing all the way to the bank.

For passengers and employees, not so much.

 

[computer guy]

Here is another option to all of this. What do you think could happen when US's stock price drops below the value of it's assests? At the time I'm posting this they are down for the day.

When/if that happens, I submit that we then have a whole new ballgame of possibilities. NW has/can get the cash to buy the assests. You could have private equity firms bidding for them, for the sole purpose of selling off the assests.

 

[back2CLT]

I think you would have a private equity firm buy them before that happens with the hopes of turning them around....well, maybe, depending on how the M/A of other carriers goes. Like I said, if its DL/UA aligned with Skyteam, then US just became a lot more valuable over the long run as a functioning carrier....in fact, LH might be willing to infuse them with some cash if they get to have some say in mgmt....US's problems should be a cinch for a group of practical Germans 🙂

 

[deltawatch]

Some airline mergers appear to have been successful. The 2005 acquisition by America West of US Airways, which created US Airways Group Inc., produced a carrier with the healthiest margin of unit profits over costs in the industry, according to SH&E, an airline consulting firm in Cambridge, Mass.

Through the third quarter of 2007, the difference between US Airways' unit revenue and costs -- a measure of financial health -- stood at an industry-high 1.78 cents per mile flown by paying customers, SH&E found. Only three other carriers, Northwest Airlines Corp., Delta and United had a margin of more than 1 cent per passenger mile in that time.

LINK

 

[whatkindoffreshhell]

I think you would have a private equity firm buy them before that happens with the hopes of turning them around....well, maybe, depending on how the M/A of other carriers goes. Like I said, if its DL/UA aligned with Skyteam, then US just became a lot more valuable over the long run as a functioning carrier....in fact, LH might be willing to infuse them with some cash if they get to have some say in mgmt....US's problems should be a cinch for a group of practical Germans 🙂

(so which poster has re-regged as the 'innocent' back2CLT???)

There is too much money to be made by the finance guys. So something will happen.

All that talk about 'reduction in capacity' as a reason for consolidation is amusing and a smokescreen. The planes are running at 90% full domestically. Some people just want to do a deal. And this nation's bankruptcy laws are a joke.

You want to reduce capacity then have AA cherry pick the UA Pacific routes and shutter the rest of the Elk Grove Village outfit. I mean everything.

 

[back2CLT]

Ok fine...how about this...US doesn't have any assets.....how much are CLT, PHL, or PHX really worth? Not much...certainly not CLT or PHX, and the demand for space at PHL is certainly lower that what I assume US can generate in revenue. It has some old planes....great...besies a couple of A330's, what is actually in demand? The shuttle? No one needs it.

US is worth more as a whole than in parts, at least for now...the same can't be said for UA....US will not be the first to liquidate......if they make it till 2014 and have some shiney A350s near the head of the line, and some slot restricted routes...

 

[Bear96]

Business segment on NPR (not a news source given to hyperbole) this afternoon reported that today Delta asked the Feds for permission to "conduct merger talks/explore merger possibilities" with Northwest AND United. Not as a both-and combination, but as an either-or. I would say that it is, in fact, official.

I think DL-NW or DL-UA will happen before the end of the year.

No comment from the DL spokesperson just means they have no comment "at this time."

I guess we have different definitions of "official."

 

[donttouchthebeauty]

(so which poster has re-regged as the 'innocent' back2CLT???)

There is too much money to be made by the finance guys. So something will happen.

All that talk about 'reduction in capacity' as a reason for consolidation is amusing and a smokescreen. The planes are running at 90% full domestically. Some people just want to do a deal. And this nation's bankruptcy laws are a joke.

You want to reduce capacity then have AA cherry pick the UA Pacific routes and shutter the rest of the Elk Grove Village outfit. I mean everything.

LOL, keep dreaming "Fresshell" ... You should worry about someone cherrypicking AMR, remember all the talking smack by AA employees about UAL selling the farm, and then AMR puts Eagle up for sale??? Lets not lose touch with reality here.. umm kkk.. Oh, and is it true that the wonderful APA has petitioned the NMB?? ummm hmmm, it is gonna get interesting, but I bet those rough and tough AMRers turn to moosh in negotiations... I think it was Britney Spears who coined it, saying, Gimme more GIMME GIMME more... and the world laughed, Look at yourself as Britney Spears freshhell, with the initials being B.S.

 

[Freighterguynow]

Yeah, with a heavy LUV presence and the fact PHL is between DCA and NYC, it seems there isn't much room for CAL, UAL or DAL to use PHL effectively.

NYC has such a large population base that JFK, LGA and EWR are, and have been for many years, considered their own separate markets.

I'm guessing you've never tried to drive from mid town to PHL? Plan on 2 hours at best. Rush hour? Fugetta about it: I've taken 1 1/2 hour limo rides just from JFK to LGA.

IThis may be dated but the US population east of Cleavland is equal to the population west of. What works in the west ( for hubs ) isn't the same model on the east.

Phl has the support of it's own O&D traffic.

 

[Dog Wonder]

Why not?

Fuel costs will eat up any profits.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

LOL, keep dreaming "Fresshell" ... You should worry about someone cherry picking AMR, remember all the talking smack by AA employees about UAL selling the farm, and then AMR puts Eagle up for sale??? Lets not lose touch with reality here.. umm kkk.. Oh, and is it true that the wonderful APA has petitioned the NMB?? ummm hmmm, it is gonna get interesting, but I bet those rough and tough AMRers turn to moosh in negotiations... I think it was Britney Spears who coined it, saying, Gimme more GIMME GIMME more... and the world laughed, Look at yourself as Britney Spears freshhell, with the initials being B.S.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Beauty,..beauty. (My poor disillusioned beauty),

As a wise man(eolesen) just pointed out to us, on the AA board(and I never even thought of it this way), is the fact THAT, the DEAL will be DL/NW, for 2(just for starters) reasons
1. DL/NW are both on the same IT system.
2. Both ARE members of SKY TEAM(a HUGE biggie)
3. IF UAL grabs CO, "royalties" (probably in CHOICE ROUTES) will be paid to NW, to release CO from their OBLIGATION to BIG RED.

But, a UAL/CO deal, isn't the "end of the world" for you guys.
1. you pick up a great needed NE hub(EWR), and a money maker in IAH, PLUS air "mike"(beauty, that means Air Micronesia), plus MORE SA/Carib, and CO has a big order in for 787's.

Not BAD, huh ?
So what do you think beauty ???

 

[700UW]

I still think the best combo for US would be a merger with UA.

 

[gizmo_sc]

LETS see now DL just got out of bankrupcy, and got rid of alot of DEBT. Now they are the front runners for MERGER MANIA. I sat in on a conference call about the uniforms and seems the moderator mentioned several times that the new uniforms do not have US AIRWAYS on any uniform pieces (Was he trying to tell us something) All the new uniform pieces only have the FLAG. I agree with 700, Parker and Tilton are making a deal. NHBB was correct, DL and NW are on the same computer reservation system ( TWA PARS) both are SKYTEAM. UA being one of the initial airlines to makeup the STAR ALLIANCE dont think they are going to dump that relationship.