And so it begins..

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Have you looked at who the biggest is by enplanements.......WN passed AA over a year ago. AA also played second fiddle to UA for years and didn't rush out to merge their way to #1. Finally, AA's growth has been primarily internal rather than thru merger - with the Reno Air sorry - Air Cal (which still left AA #2 as I recall) and TWA (which was after AA surpassed UA as I recall) mergers being relatively minor exceptions.



That is definitely true, but it takes two to tango. My guess (and that's all it is) is that AA will be content to see what assets become available with any required divestitures and pick what they want.

Jim

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Captain(BB),
With the highest degree of respect due you, I'm going to agree to disagree with you.

Here's why.

As many have said(on here),AA under "usual circumstances" would "stand pat".
BUT, I now (strongly) feel, that our poor ol' Industry, is long past "usual", and deteriorating FASTER than the old Gent who misplaced his Viagra.

As someone has said already, deals MUST be made before EL-CHIMPO leaves office in(almost exactly ) 1 year. Speaking of our resident MORON at "1600", Texas was correctly mentioned, which as everyone knows, is where AA + CO reside.

(Jim) NOW you really need to "sit down"

Given the VERY close relationship between Anderson/Steenland, and the NW BOD's, DL/NW looks to me to be a sure bet.
Having said that, coupled with oil $ heading for the stratosphere, and stocks already in the crapper, I honestly feel, AA WILL make a move, and I'm strongly feeling that "that" move will be AA + CO !!
(UAL on there best day, won't out maneuver AA)
Picture Arpey and Kellner "having lunch" with EL-CHIMPO, discussing all things Texas.

Now for the differences in alliences, CO has always been the "red headed step child" of Sky Team !

As for LCC, GOD I don't even come close to a clue. Maybe a deal with AMTRAK ???(just kidding...and it's NOT a kidding matter. MY BAD)


So CAPTAIN, what say you ??

Regards,

 

[WCT]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Captain(BB),
With the highest degree of respect due you, I'm going to agree to disagree with you.

Here's why.

As many have said(on here),AA under "usual circumstances" would "stand pat".
BUT, I now (strongly) feel, that our poor ol' Industry, is long past "usual", and deteriorating FASTER than the old Gent who misplaced his Viagra.

As someone has said already, deals MUST be made before EL-CHIMPO leaves office in(almost exactly ) 1 year. Speaking of our resident MORON at "1600", Texas was correctly mentioned, which as everyone knows, is where AA + CO reside.

(Jim) NOW you really need to "sit down"

Given the VERY close relationship between Anderson/Steenland, and the NW BOD's, DL/NW looks to me to be a sure bet.
Having said that, coupled with oil $ heading for the stratosphere, and stocks already in the crapper, I honestly feel, AA WILL make a move, and I'm strongly feeling that "that" move will be AA + CO !!
(UAL on there best day, won't out maneuver AA)
Picture Arpey and Kellner "having lunch" with EL-CHIMPO, discussing all things Texas.

Now for the differences in alliences, CO has always been the "red headed step child" of Sky Team !

As for LCC, GOD I don't even come close to a clue. Maybe a deal with AMTRAK ???(just kidding...and it's NOT a kidding matter. MY BAD)


So CAPTAIN, what say you ??

Regards,

WHAT???! I don't get your point, sorry?? :huh:

 

[tea42]

Nothing yet on the calender of events on the website. Should be late this month.

Jim

January 24th is the date....

 

[crusher]

The word on the street is a profit for the 4th quarter , but don't look for a profit in 2008.

 

[autofixer]

The word on the street is a profit for the 4th quarter , but don't look for a profit in 2008.

Why not?

 

[BoeingBoy]

So CAPTAIN, what say you ??

I say time will tell, but for now I'm sticking by my guess.

Jim

 

[robbedagain]

just a side note what would it be like if say CO were to make a deal with US not saying it would happen but stranger things have happened

 

[back2CLT]

I love this kind of "what if" stuff.

My 2 cents.....US should sit this out, and hopefully nobody comes with enough cash to buy them out to strip em and dump em.

If US did merge, the likely best "legacy" candidate would be NW, given the decent fleet commonality....it would also get them the 787 five years ahead of the A350. The route networks would be complimentary, though I agree, if trimming fat is the main priorioty, then there isn't much there.

As far as the LCC's, I think Spirit is the only one who makes sense. Why Hawaiian? Who wants to make a layover on a trans-pacific on a perceived crappy airlines (US), when anyone else can get you there non-stop. Alaska is all Boeing, so I don't see it happening. JetBlue has great fleet fit, but JFK is redundant with LGA (which is a better business O/D airport) and their Boston hub isn't anything that US couldn't be doing themselves if they wanted. Spirit has great fleet fit, and hub at FLL which US has tried before, and should have probably tried for longer. They have some experience in South America, with LIM up and running and Caracas on the way, which would likely be US next two ventures after BOG. They could even reduce some Carribean routes to drive up yeilds, and redeploy some aircraft to phase out the Boeings.

My take on DL + NW or UA and what it means for US coming soon....

 

[gaucho99]

I could see US benefiting from these mergers by staying solo. Example: Argentina limits service to 4 US carriers. Right now, AA, DL, CO and UA serve Argentina so US could not start service if they wanted to. If UA-Co merge, or if AA-Co merge, or DL-UA merge, anyone of those scenarios reduces to 3 the number of carriers flying to Argentina. That would open the door for US to try and get down there. I imagine it would open up similar opportunities elsewhere.

 

[back2CLT]

As far as DL mergers go, I'm leaning more toward UA now than NW, in regards to benefitting US.

It would do more to reduce capacity in markets that US Airways serves, which in turn should transalte to higher yeilds for everyone. Also, either SLC or DEN would be dehubbed, which should make PHX a more viable hub operation.

Also, IAD would likely be reduced to an International Focus City, rather than a true domestic hub, which should benefit both PHL and CLT. International Hubs would remain ATL, ORD, SFO, and JFK.

This is all really good news for US assuming they can remain Star Alliance.....They all of a sudden get 100% of the feed coming from Star carriers. It wouldn't do a lot of extra good for Europe, with FRA yeilds likely increasing and CPH becoming a smart move. South America would benefit once/if TAM joins Star, with really strong feed to GRU and GIG from CLT. As mentioned before, a couple of markets would likely open to US be the reduction of UA.

Asia is the wild card.....DL and NW certainly will dominate US based trans-pacific flights, but the quality of the Star Alliance carriers based in Asia could outweigh this, as they would get a lot of feed. US would simply need to increase its presence in LAX to make it a true focus city. There would be some no-brain additions....PDX, SEA, BOS, JFK, and IAD (all of which UA and DL both already fly)


EDIT
The big question is, how would other Star Alliance carriers feel about US Airways being the the "US Flag Carrier" for the alliance? Not great, I assume. Logically, they would try to woo CO to defect, which would be OK, IMO. CO wouldn't really duplicate anything, aside from PHL/EWR, though EWR serves most everyone anyway, and with its market size, really isn't competition. If not CO, then Star is left with nothing besides asking JetBlue to become a regional affiliate.....considering there presence in JFK and BOS, that would make sense, though it wouldn't impact US severly, and the watershed from UA leaving would be well worth it.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

AA is too big for this round. If the others are involved in major mergers, they may be able to get AS or get pieces like one of the Shuttles.

AA + LCC - PHL is not out of the quesion, IMO.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

NW-CO leaves a pretty gaping hole west of Texas. Perhaps a breakup of LCC is on the horizon.

I agree.... but, again, it's PHL that really doesn't fit in the combo. Take NW + CO + LCC - PHL - random other reductions and that might go through.

 

[US1YFARE]

AA + LCC - PHL is not out of the quesion, IMO.

I agree, AA is not "too big" to play.

 

[Non Rev]

NW-CO leaves a pretty gaping hole west of Texas. Perhaps a breakup of LCC is on the horizon.

Would the fact that the pilots are essentially two different work groups make this scenario easier?

 

[RowUnderDCA]

I agree, AA is not "too big" to play.

Heck, for that matter, I think the Feds would consider DL + AA, if the big guys would sweep the little jets out of the congested NE airspace and airports: crumple ASA and Comair's plane, leaving eagle's capacity for the combined system.

Small jets are going to be a bigger and bigger problem for congestion and fuel burn/per pax, IMO.