Analyst expects AMR to lose over $1 billion in 2011

[Maark767]

For those who are mature enough to keep reading, how about we throw out the possibility that I just might be right?

Let's suppose that I am actually more like the cardiologist who is standing by your bedside as you lie in intensive care after your heart attack. Let's suppose that I am telling you that you need to lose weight, you need to quit smoking, you need to cut your intake of fat and salt, and that you need to exercise at least 30 minutes 3X/week.

Do you not think there are a lot of people in the US who hear that news EVERY DAY after their first heart attack.

And there are a whole lot of people who hear their doctor say even before the heart attack that there are warning signs that one is coming. Some people change but far too many continue down the same path, only to have their first heart attack and get the "talking to" that I described above.

You don't understand all the things your doctor says to you or the data they read about you or the interpretations they make - neither do I.

But I am smart enough - and I surely hope you are - to recognize that there are people who know more than you do and can make the tough statements that you might need to hear even if you don't like what is being said.

We've had AA labor and mgmt "whistling through the graveyard" (to use the words of a wise man on this forum) because they don't like the news they are being told.

But shooting the messenger as if you will change the course of the bad news doesn't work... you can look at the nuclear plant problems in Japan as a perfect example of how denial and failure to act can cause far more damage and ultimately delay facing the reality that was there all along.

Don't act like Tokyo Electric Power Company - or the patient who tunes out the doctor's bad news just because it isn't pallatable.

Face the hard facts - challenge them if you want - but ultimately recognize that there just might be problems a whole lot bigger than what you think - and it would behoove you to face them instead of ignoring them.

If you choose to ignore, then let's check back in a couple years and see how it works out for AA.

Methinks the whistling through the graveyard act will come to a screeching halt in the very near future for AA and its employees.

See you would trust your Cardiologist and go on with your new life . The trust has been broken. Anything that comes out of managements mouth is not believed . Very sad.

 

[eolesen]

My 13 year old daughter has managed to memorize the dialog from all 15 seasons of E.R., and can even sound quite credible at times when talking about medical stuff. Actress Maura Tierney even helped save someone's life once after recognizing symptoms of something she'd been coached on from the show.

That still doesn't make either one of them a doctor...

 

[WorldTraveler]

My 13 year old daughter has managed to memorize the dialog from all 15 seasons of E.R., and can even sound quite credible at times when talking about medical stuff. Actress Maura Tierney even helped save someone's life once after recognizing symptoms of something she'd been coached on from the show.

That still doesn't make either one of them a doctor...

The obvious distinctive is that a real doctor can do more than just quote the script but actually interpret the lab results, examine the patient, and come up with appropriate recommendations.

If you don't see someone doing those kinds of things when you go for your physical or are staring at the ceiling in ICU, then perhaps you aren't asking the right people.

Sometimes the news is brutal but it has to be said....

a real doctor knows that the bleeding stops because it always does.

But there are things that you don't have to spend 6 or more years in med school or residency to know. Your grandmother or the teenager at the bus stop might not be able to read your chest x-ray but they can figure out that you can't breathe and someone needs to do something to get some air into you - or you die.

The point is what is truth and what should be done about it; there is no one who has a corner on any truth.

If someone tells you that you are bleeding, pretending that they don't have the qualifications to treat you could be mighty costly.

But if that person even without being a doctor can figure out that because your eyes have rolled away from the centerline of vision and your lips are purple, then it doesn't take a doctor to tell them they should start doing CPR. Running around looking for second opinions won't work at that point. Waiting for a doctor whose credentials you like and whose message you will listen to will result in predictable results....

 

[Hopeful]

Most of the stories about poor quality I see coming from union workers in the US, so consider the source with a grain (or jar) of salt.

In 25 years, I've never heard anyone at LH, CX, or BA complaining about the quality of their outsourced MRO work.

Maybe we have higher safety standards than the rest of the world, but there's no real evidence that planes are falling out of the sky on any other continent. So I stack some of this up to the belief that only a US union worker employed by an airline is capable of performing high quality work. I say that's hogwash. Quality is possible anywhere as long as you demand it and oversee it.

BA? They outsource to a spinoff of themselves...BA MAINTENANCE AND ENGINEERING..
LH? They outsource to themselves as well..LH TECHNIK!

And the problem is the lack of oversight in places like Salvador and Mexico....
You may want to believe the same scrutiny that exists here is there, it is not...
And that info, has come FAA Inspectors who I have known for decades..
High Quality work from people who DON'T READ AND WRITE AND SPEAK ENGLISH WHEN MAINTENANCE MANUALS ARE WRITTEN IN ENGLISH?

Man, Eric, believe it or not, you are not the end-all authority on EVERY aspect of aircraft maintenance.

 

[FWAAA]

And the problem is the lack of oversight in places like Salvador and Mexico....

Ok, assuming that SAL and Mexico are substandard places to overhaul a plane, what about other parts of the world? Who overhauls planes for QF, CX, JL, SQ, and other high-quality airlines whose planes aren't falling out of the sky? Where are widebodies belonging to UA, DL and CO overhauled? Aren't those performed at places like HKG and SIN? As an aside, there's no shortage of English-speakers in either of those two cities.

 

[700UW]

QF overhauls their own planes, and last time I checked Australians speak english.

SQ owns Singapore Technologies who overhauls their planes.

Cathay is an owner of Haeco, who overhauls their planes.

JL overhauls their own planes.

See a common thread here?

 

[tech2101]

As I have noted before, AA's maintenance costs per ASM are about 60% higher than DL's - which has the lowest maintenance costs per ASM in the industry and about 20% higher than UA's.

My edit from your posts:

Delta good, everybody else bad.

 

[eolesen]

QF overhauls their own planes, and last time I checked Australians speak english.

SQ owns Singapore Technologies who overhauls their planes.

Cathay is an owner of Haeco, who overhauls their planes.

JL overhauls their own planes.

See a common thread here?

Yes. Subsidiaries being used to maintain their aircraft. AF/KL do the same thing. And the other common thread in all that is those airlines tend to be a lot more profitable.


Two corrections, though. It's possible SQ may have some investment in ST Aerospace, but they're not the owner or even a majority stakeholder like Cathay & Swire are with HAECO.

JL has a wholly owned subsidiary which does their overhaul. In fact, most of JL's operations are done thru subsidiaries. And that may be the right approach for AMR, too.

I'm of the opinion that spinning off MRO could be the right decision for both AMR and the employees. You'd have separate contracts by default, it might allow for attracting third party business that might not otherwise be won because you're seen as a competing airline, and workers might be able to be covered by NRLA instead of RLA, which has its own ups and downs. You'd have the chance to walk at the contract expiration date, but the flipside is that you'd also have to follow open shop & RTW laws.