Analysts get gloomier on AMR

[Bob Owens]

90% are coming from outside the industry Bob.


Like I said earlier.

Nothing will change until the PIG is dead.

You will be like Eastern Mechanics outside clamoring to management how you showed their asses while you lost your job an cost many others theirs.
All the while you are using loss of jobs as a reason to kill the PIG.

They just got rid of about 25% of the maintenance operations when they shelled out MCI and all the CLASS II statiions. And they did so without contract language change. When they get rid of AFW that will be another close to 25%. And they can do that without contract language change. But Tulsa will grow if they ever get the desired 7 day coverage.

You can fear monger me all you want about Tulsa being shuttered, but all indications are just the opposite is taking place.
Ask them to show you the INCOG agreement regarding employment levels at Tulsa tied to the Vision 2025 money Bob.
In case you are clueless, INCOG stands for Indian Nations Congress of Government or something to that effect.

Your propaganda without facts is really starting to annoy me.

You are here claiming that the No vote cost you $15000 and making the assumption that there will be no reto, I' saying what I feel the possible fallout could have been with a yes vote.

They actually got rid of around 35% since 2003, thats when the Class IIs were cut back. And they changed the language in 2003 to do that, they rolled back system protection. System protection is what keeps the work, because you have to keep the workers. The thing is it also continuously errodes as people retire and people hire on.

One thing the company has been clear about, they need to get Line Maintenance back on board, they recognize that they are not paying a competitive wage and that their operation is suffering as a result they also feel they are paying too much for OH, that came straight from Jim Ream in May of 2010.

Nearly the majority of the time since the TA was rejected the company has insisted they need to get rid of the 1/7th rule at the bases, then all of sudden they they could settle for it at DWH only.

Maybe AA made promises to INCOG or the City of Tulsa , but you brought up MCI, they also made promises to Kansas City. What happened to those promises?

You may be right about AFW now that AA has cut a deal with GE but with all that room at DFW the high cost of fuel, increased landing fees, growing pilot shortage and new airplanes I dont see AA getting bigger in Tulsa. I see growth in DFW, MIA and LAX. Thats pretty much it. DFW is the only place that has seen consistant growth. AFW remained pretty much the same throughout. Tulsa was cut big time we were as well.

You may read the language in the TA differently than I did but what I saw in it was a move primarily directed against OH. We live with and know that if they wanted to they could pull everything out of JFK tomorrow and the 350 mechanics here would simply bump the system, however that language was geared towards doing something much bigger.

 

[TIME FOR CHANGE]

90% are coming from outside the industry Bob.


Like I said earlier.

Nothing will change until the PIG is dead.

You will be like Eastern Mechanics outside clamoring to management how you showed their asses while you lost your job an cost many others theirs.
All the while you are using loss of jobs as a reason to kill the PIG.

Loss of Jobs...? American may cease to exist but the routes and the carriers to fly those routes will be plenty. The only thing that changes here on the line is the color on that tail.

Also hearing rumors about some stadium in Dallas that will be turned into an AA overhaul facility eventually resulting in the closure of tulsa "vision 2025" :blink:

 

[TWU informer]

I eagerly await all you chest thumpers to prove me wrong and bring back the Industry Leading Save the Profession Labor Agreement.

In fact I look forward to publicly making the admission that I was wrong and that I do not know diddly squat.

 

[Birdman]

What do you make of the company's sudden about face on the 1/7ths rule as long as it excluded DWH?

I think it has a lot to do with dock 1D, their little experiment to see how 7 day coverage would fly. Again, what was once (formerly 4D) a rock solid performing dock was reduced to the bane of the industry, now on day 64 of their retro/light C. Many are anxiously awaiting the promotion of the manAAger responsible to the next higher level of incompetence.

 

[GoodTimeBob]

Loss of Jobs...? American may cease to exist but the routes and the carriers to fly those routes will be plenty. The only thing that changes here on the line is the color on that tail.

Also hearing rumors about some stadium in Dallas that will be turned into an AA overhaul facility eventually resulting in the closure of tulsa "vision 2025" :blink:

That wouldn't be related to the negotiating team giving up the one-seventh rule would it?

 

[High Speed Steel]

Nearly the majority of the time since the TA was rejected the company has insisted they need to get rid of the 1/7th rule at the bases, then all of sudden they they could settle for it at DWH only.

You sure about that bob, I don't think you understand the language you TA'd. Besides, Tulsa has never been at the 1/7th capacity anyway, and with the announcement of 460 new aircraft it makes the whole issue moot...

 

[Buck]

Why would they shut down Tulsa when Tulsa is the cheaper facility to operate? The City of Tulsa practically gives it to the company. I am pretty sure that any action against Tulsa would be countered with an extra from the city to keep it open. The only issue being another buyer promising the city to keep the work force there. My understanding is that AFW is very expensive for the company. I do not believe that the TWU could stand to loose to lose that kind of revenue.

I think it has a lot to do with dock 1D, their little experiment to see how 7 day coverage would fly. Again, what was once (formerly 4D) a rock solid performing dock was reduced to the bane of the industry, now on day 64 of their retro/light C. Many are anxiously awaiting the promotion of the manAAger responsible to the next higher level of incompetence.

I think you are referring to certain management egos. As a Crew Chief, we have more meetings than ever before. This does not over come what 7-day coverage has done to the yields for 737 Light "C" and we at 1D are only on our first. A learning curve, maybe. However with the continuing issues, that are out of control of management, to support the OH operation are still as before. The rest of the base in general does not work 7-day coverage.They support AO and there own docks with OT. When 5 pm rolls around there is a deathly silence of non support. The only ongoing factor is the churn at dock 1D. Whole crews are disappearing to other docks which are still on 5/8's with weekend's off. TULE could build another hangar or two with the area left from the vacant parking on the weekends. After all management states time and again the the do not have the space to perform all of the work that needs to be accomplished. It is amazing the affect that one manager can have on his underlings. And Birdman get your facts together, this day 63 of 63, mark my words she will be out tonight....

Maybe they should roll the Heavy "C" into the Light "C" into the "Retro", I am not sure how many more days that would be.

 

[TWU informer]

Does anybody with secret negotiations knowledge have any idea what happened to the 3 x12's or 3 x 13's weekend shift proposal?

 

[Tex-Mech]

Does anybody with secret negotiations knowledge have any idea what happened to the 3 x12's or 3 x 13's weekend shift proposal?

That was traded off for the exclusion of the 1/7th rule at DWH. The company proposed an enhancement, and the union pushed through a major concession.

 

[Barfbag]

Did you notice how DL, WN, and US also hit new 52W lows?...

Yep; but these guys will all show 2011 profits.

 

[strikeforce]

Corporations do not go by credit scores that people use to finance homes.

AA was financed by Boeing and Airbus. Read the articles and Airbus goes on to say that they don't want to become a financing arm. GECAS financed the 737s and 787s with a catch. We have to power all those aircraft with GE engines. Besides, if AMR defaults, they can repossess the aircraft or maybe AMR will restructure the leases in BK court and finance them with the money they save by restructuring the labor agreements.

Not defending management or weak union officials, just explaining the harsh reality of the way the business world works. Look at the banking industry? Talk about creeps! Those high finance types nearly crater the economic system and they get bonuses and bailouts to the tune of billions.

So, did you agree or disagree that AMR's Credit Rating (Not credit score) is in Junk territory????

You're right, it's the creepy high finance types lending AMR billions for continued operations....and YOU are defending management and the INTL.

 

[Buck]

Does anybody with secret negotiations knowledge have any idea what happened to the 3 x12's or 3 x 13's weekend shift proposal?

That was traded off for the exclusion of the 1/7th rule at DWH. The company proposed an enhancement, and the union pushed through a major concession.

Yes, I remember the negotiating committee stopping by and asking me........

I voted for the 3x13's.

I wondering if this 1/7th passes in the next T/A, if they will remove 7-day coverage from 1D in TULE?

 

[GoodTimeBob]

Yes, I remember the negotiating committee stopping by and asking me........

I voted for the 3x13's.

I wondering if this 1/7th passes in the next T/A, if they will remove 7-day coverage from 1D in TULE?

They won't need to, they will simply move the work. The int'l owns the contract not the right to tell them where to perform it.

 

[Buck]

They won't need to, they will simply move the work. The int'l owns the contract not the right to tell them where to perform it.

If I take your meaning, that is in align with Article 28 para of the existing agreement?

 

[eolesen]

So, did you agree or disagree that AMR's Credit Rating (Not credit score) is in Junk territory????

All airlines, with the exception of WN, are considered junk by Morningstar and S&P.

Here's how ratings line up:

JUNK-----------------|------INVESTMENT

D--C--CC--CCC--B--BB-|-BBB--A--AA--AAA

Only WN is rated BBB by both Morningstar & S&P.

Currently, both AA and US are ranked a CCC by Morningstar, and a B- by S&P.

Highly profitable & flexible DL is ranked a B- by Morningstar and a B by S&P.

United is ranked a B (higher than DL) by Morningstar and S&P (same as DL).


So, to the point you may have been trying to make, no, AMR's credit ratings aren't at absolute bottom. Yet.