Analysts get gloomier on AMR

[strikeforce]

More BS from Bob...

Wall Street is far more than just stocks and financial tools. It's also where the guys lending AMR money work.

So, if you think your costs don't enter into the risk assessment at Citibank, Chase, etc. on whether or not to continue lending AMR money or refinancing debt, you're just as mistaken as you are on just about everything else related to finances...

....and what's AMR's credit rating on Wall Street......is it in Junk territory, yet the company with 11B in debt, lost 286M in the latest quarter, is able to secure 13B in aircraft orders????? Doesn't sound like Citibank, Chase, Boeing & Airbus are doing their jobs regarding due-diligence with respect to AMR or any other company.

There are individuals with over 720 credit scores being denied credit, but a money losing company like AMR is afforded billions is totally irresponsible by the banks. Not totally surprised why the USA is in deep trouble. We have government entities fighting to raise the gov'ts credit card limit because they can't live within their means, and who ultimately gets stuck paying the bill.....you got it, the little guy. I find it amazing that YOU, along with others on this board, find it acceptable by defending management and how irresponsible Arpey & Co. has been by NOT living within AA's means, unless AA's lying about it's finances!!

 

[Overspeed]

....and what's AMR's credit rating on Wall Street......is it in Junk territory, yet the company with 11B in debt, lost 286M in the latest quarter, is able to secure 13B in aircraft orders????? Doesn't sound like Citibank, Chase, Boeing & Airbus are doing their jobs regarding due-diligence with respect to AMR or any other company.

There are individuals with over 720 credit scores being denied credit, but a money losing company like AMR is afforded billions is totally irresponsible by the banks. Not totally surprised why the USA is in deep trouble. We have government entities fighting to raise the gov'ts credit card limit because they can't live within their means, and who ultimately gets stuck paying the bill.....you got it, the little guy. I find it amazing that YOU, along with others on this board, find it acceptable by defending management and how irresponsible Arpey & Co. has been by NOT living within AA's means, unless AA's lying about it's finances!!

Corporations do not go by credit scores that people use to finance homes.

AA was financed by Boeing and Airbus. Read the articles and Airbus goes on to say that they don't want to become a financing arm. GECAS financed the 737s and 787s with a catch. We have to power all those aircraft with GE engines. Besides, if AMR defaults, they can repossess the aircraft or maybe AMR will restructure the leases in BK court and finance them with the money they save by restructuring the labor agreements.

Not defending management or weak union officials, just explaining the harsh reality of the way the business world works. Look at the banking industry? Talk about creeps! Those high finance types nearly crater the economic system and they get bonuses and bailouts to the tune of billions.

 

[eolesen]

Yep. All those new airplanes are easily repainted into someone else's colors, and will continue to earn money for the banks backing the loans. There's no such guarantee with unsecured debt.

Also, don't mistake my explaining the realities and inequities of corporate finance as being in support of how AMR or any other perpetual loss making enterprise runs their business.

I live to a balanced budget, and so does the company I now work for. Frankly, anything else is fiscally irresponsible, both by the management who runs things at a loss, but also from unions who continue to turn a blind eye to the fact that expenses shouldn't exceed revenues plus a fair profit. Choking the golden goose doesn't work.

 

[Overspeed]

So what are you saying , you have to assign someone to make your foil hat?



BS. Do you actually think Wall Street manages every company across the world? Or, do you think that managers ask Wall street what their next move wshould be, how they should run their business, how much they should pay their employees? No, Wall Street is one of several markets that sells stocks and other financial tools. Wall Street has conviently become the bossman's latest excuse, "I'd love to bring you guys up to industry leading but Wall Street wont allow it". Give me a break. If the company was so concerned about Wall Street, which has as many different opinions as they do analysts, even different opinions within the same company, then why havent they reacted to all Wall streets complaints as far as Bk, mergers, further capacity cuts etc etc?



No but I did hear Don bring up all the money we saved the company through productivity and cost reduction only to hear the company say that Fuel ate it all up and what we get is to be able to keep our jobs.
I have no desire to be like NW, UA or US but we sure are a lot more like them than Lufthansa, Southwest, Jet Blue , Fed Ex or UPS as far as compensation.



Well its certainly no worse then giving them productivity up front and expecting to be given credit at the table later. That has been proven already.

Wall Street types may influence how AMR BOD think about Arpey and Reding keeping the work in-house. That should concern you but probably not because you know more than everybody else. The stock price is falling and investors don't like it when their shares lose value. I saw one analyst give a share target price of $3 a share. Change may be forced upon us and it sounds like you don't understand how all the pieces fit together.

Much of that savings was not really savings. It was value and much of it one time, not recurring. Did you pay attention when it was explained to you? Harvesting engines, getting rid of excess inventory, etc... only happens once.

Bob, you seriously have no clue what you are doing. You pick phrases and facts to fit your argument. You don't examine the facts and circumstances of the environment that are negotiating in. That's sad because you are saying things to appease people, including yourself, but you are deceiving them. I hope our members will wake up and see that you are wrong before they step off the cliff and realize that.

SWA? Jetblue? FedEx? UPS? Okay, when do we outsource overhaul? Only Lufthansa has 10,000 mechanics but they make money with their business model and guess what, M&E was broken off on their own P&L to show if they could be profitable as a business. Are you willing to take that plunge? That is truly putting your money where mouth is. I don't think you have the guts to go that route.

 

[TWU informer]

Yep. All those new airplanes are easily repainted into someone else's colors, and will continue to earn money for the banks backing the loans. There's no such guarantee with unsecured debt.

Also, don't mistake my explaining the realities and inequities of corporate finance as being in support of how AMR or any other perpetual loss making enterprise runs their business.

I live to a balanced budget, and so does the company I now work for. Frankly, anything else is fiscally irresponsible, both by the management who runs things at a loss, but also from unions who continue to turn a blind eye to the fact that expenses shouldn't exceed revenues plus a fair profit. Choking the golden goose doesn't work.

True...But

Management isn't going to stop being over headcount,
Management isn't going to stop taking bonus awards.
Management isn't going to stop promoting people into jobs they cannot do,

Union isn't going to stop advocating low production,
Union isn't going to stop demanding the advancement of unskilled workers into skilled jobs.
Union isn't going to stop cutting deals to save those that need to be fired.
Union isn't going to stop beleiving they can manage better than incompentent management. (they are just as bad at it)

SO

I am in the "Get What I Can Before the Curtain Falls" mode
I cannot save this airline with concessions
I cannot save this airline from my circle of influence

I am going get every ounce of pork I can before this PIG is gone!!!
Problem is many others see it the same way, so it is now a non-stop perpetual motion to the end.

 

[eolesen]

Dave, I can't argue one bit with that. It's become a self-fulfilling prophesy at this point, much like we saw with the destruction of Braniff, Pan Am, Eastern, and TWA.

And it doesn't have to be. Only difference is right now you don't have a guy like Carl Icahn or Frank Lorenzo waiting in the wings like a vulture to swoop in and pick at the carcass.

 

[MCI transplant]

Dave, I can't argue one bit with that. It's become a self-fulfilling prophesy at this point, much like we saw with the destruction of Braniff, Pan Am, Eastern, and TWA.

And it doesn't have to be. Only difference is right now you don't have a guy like Carl Icahn or Frank Lorenzo waiting in the wings like a vulture to swoop in and pick at the carcass.

<_< ----- Not quit that way with TWA Olesen. It was the concessions of the Unions at TWA that kept it flying well after it should have folded. And that started well before Uncle Carl, or American, came into the picture! One doesn't go 10+ years without a raise, and frozen benefits, just to keep an Airline flying, and expect to "catch up some day!"------It's just not going to happen! But AA's Unions are coming close to that mark! -------- From someone who has been there, don't ride a dead horse into the ground and expect to come out a winner! :huh: -------The trick is deciding when that horse is terminal!!!

 

[Birdman]

<_< ----- Not quit that way with TWA Olesen. It was the concessions of the Unions at TWA that kept it flying well after it should have folded. And that started well before Uncle Carl, or American, came into the picture! One doesn't go 10+ years without a raise, and frozen benefits, just to keep an Airline flying, and expect to "catch up some day!"------It's just not going to happen! But AA's Unions are coming close to that mark! -------- From someone who has been there, don't ride a dead horse into the ground and expect to come out a winner! :huh: -------The trick is deciding when that horse is terminal!!!

I recall we got some pretty new aircraft from TWA in 2001. Does anyone see a pattern here?

 

[Buck]

I recall we got some pretty new aircraft from TWA in 2001. Does anyone see a pattern here?

Quite a few MD80's......

 

[Bob Owens]

Yep. All those new airplanes are easily repainted into someone else's colors, and will continue to earn money for the banks backing the loans. There's no such guarantee with unsecured debt.

Also, don't mistake my explaining the realities and inequities of corporate finance as being in support of how AMR or any other perpetual loss making enterprise runs their business.

I live to a balanced budget, and so does the company I now work for. Frankly, anything else is fiscally irresponsible, both by the management who runs things at a loss, but also from unions who continue to turn a blind eye to the fact that expenses shouldn't exceed revenues plus a fair profit. Choking the golden goose doesn't work.

Yep and so will we because whoever buys them will need mechanics to fix them and guys are still leaving the industry faster than they are coming in.

Fair profit? Golden goose ? Is that why you left the industry,you have something against Golden Geese?

As far as expenses the fact is labor costs are lower than ever, our cost of living however continue to go up, it's unreasonable to expect labor to bear the brunt of irresponsible spending on the part of management. Labor has no obligation to the shareholders, management does.

 

[TWU informer]

Yep and so will we because whoever buys them will need mechanics to fix them and guys are still leaving the industry faster than they are coming in.

Fair profit? Golden goose ? Is that why you left the industry,you have something against Golden Geese?

As far as expenses the fact is labor costs are lower than ever, our cost of living however continue to go up, it's unreasonable to expect labor to bear the brunt of irresponsible spending on the part of management. Labor has no obligation to the shareholders, management does.

I am seeing many new faces around the Tulsa base Bob. Currently more are coming in than going out here.
Also just as in the past, AA could begin an apprentice program and in 18-24 months make Licensed AMT's out of Fleet Service Clerks, Overhaul Support Mechanics, and Building Cleaners, and last time they even made them out of security guards, staff assistants, and credit union tellers using sign off via credited work experience. They could even launch these new AMT's to the Line via a RIF since they would be low seniority. And I don't see any record that indicates they had to bump them back or terminate them due to lack of skill or ability. In fact, one or two of them were sidekicks with me here during the AMFA drive and have been Licensed AMT's for well over 15 years now.

I know that the T/A had different pay for everyone, but I believe you rejected over $500 per month in payraise.
I know the raise I was to receive was about $580 per month gross. Along with the signing bonus I am now down nearly $15,000.00 since the rejected T/A.

And I don't tend to blame management for that loss as much as you my own "union brother".

I can understand your desire to get more, match UPS, FedEx, and SWA in pay for Line AMT's but your mission is costing the crap out of me.
Who do think I should blame for that $15,000.00 loss Bob?
Do you think you will be recovering that $15G plus some more soon?

 

[Flying low]

I am seeing many new faces around the Tulsa base Bob. Currently more are coming in than going out here.
Also just as in the past, AA could begin an apprentice program and in 18-24 months make Licensed AMT's out of Fleet Service Clerks, Overhaul Support Mechanics, and Building Cleaners, and last time they even made them out of security guards, staff assistants, and credit union tellers using sign off via credited work experience. They could even launch these new AMT's to the Line via a RIF since they would be low seniority. And I don't see any record that indicates they had to bump them back or terminate them due to lack of skill or ability. In fact, one or two of them were sidekicks with me here during the AMFA drive and have been Licensed AMT's for well over 15 years now.

I've seen some of those apprentices from way back then have moved into management also.

 

[Bob Owens]

duplicate

 

[Bob Owens]

I am seeing many new faces around the Tulsa base Bob. Currently more are coming in than going out here.

Where are they coming from , inside the industry or out? We are getting our guys from within AA, Eagle and Delta. From what I hear the planes are coming in so in need of heavy work the company is considering farming out several 757s so they can catch up. Once the new planes start coming in the work load will slide off for a while until they get old, we will both probably be gone by the time that happens.

Also just as in the past, AA could begin an apprentice program and in 18-24 months make Licensed AMT's out of Fleet Service Clerks, Overhaul Support Mechanics, and Building Cleaners, and last time they even made them out of security guards, staff assistants, and credit union tellers using sign off via credited work experience. They could even launch these new AMT's to the Line via a RIF since they would be low seniority. And I don't see any record that indicates they had to bump them back or terminate them due to lack of skill or ability.

Well they just did bump back, why do you think they approved every Transfer Waiver form and sent the guys back that they sent up last fall? It wasnt right to send them straight to the line in a city where they could not afford housing and nobody is in the mood to teach.

I know that the T/A had different pay for everyone, but I believe you rejected over $500 per month in payraise.
I know the raise I was to receive was about $580 per month gross. Along with the signing bonus I am now down nearly $15,000.00 since the rejected T/A.

And I don't tend to blame management for that loss as much as you my own "union brother".

I can understand your desire to get more, match UPS, FedEx, and SWA in pay for Line AMT's but your mission is costing the crap out of me.
Who do think I should blame for that $15,000.00 loss Bob?
Do you think you will be recovering that $15G plus some more soon?

Well Retro is still on the table so you havent lost anything unless you vote yes for something without retro. If for some reason beyond my control it gets removed then I will once again push for rejection.

The fact is a yes vote was a vote to give the company two years of zero increases, take away retiree medical from guys who paid into it for years, give the company the right to sell off up to 25% of the value of the total operation and scores of other concessions. Currently a little less than 20% of those on the clock do not have system protection and that number goes up daily as guys with it leave and guys without it get added. Now that the company is adding heads the percentage will go up much faster. Its likely that the number will exceed well over 25% by 2013.The spinoff language in the TA allows the company to sell off up to 25% of the value of the maintenance operation in any 12 month period, has nothing to do with headcount, but the more people without system protection the easier it would be for AA to spin off Tulsa, by 2013 the figure would likley have been well over 25% of the M&R workforce under the TA language. Tulsa currently makes up just under 43% of the M&R headcount. Could the system absorb the difference? With the amount of OT they are paying across the system and continued attrition I would say yes, plus it saves the company from trying to hire people off the street and competing for mechanics with other carriers (Jet Blue is already offering a top pay of $40/hr). They may also need more than that if they decide to set up to do all the new Aircraft at DWH.

What do you make of the company's sudden about face on the 1/7ths rule as long as it excluded DWH?

 

[TWU informer]

Where are they coming from , inside the industry or out? We are getting our guys from within AA, Eagle and Delta.



Well they just did bump back, why do you think they approved every Transfer Waiver form and sent the guys back that they sent up last fall? It wasnt right to send them straight to the line in a city where they could not afford housing.



Well Retro is still on the table so you havent lost anything unless you vote yes for something without retro. If for some reason beyond my control it gets removed then I will once again push for rejection.

The fact is a yes vote was a vote to give the company two years of zero increases, take away retiree medical from guys who paid into it for years, give the company the right to sell off up to 25% of the value of the total operation and scores of other concessions. Currently a little less than 20% of those on the clock do not have system protection and that number goes up daily as guys with it leave and guys without it get added. Now that the company is adding heads the percentage will go up much faster. Its likely that the number will exceed 25% by 2013.The spinoff language in the TA allows the company to sell off up to 25% of the value of the maintenance operation in any 12 month period, has nothing to do with headcount, so AA would have the ability to spin off Tulsa and eliminate all those without system protection, by 2013 the figure would likley have been over 25% of the M&R workforce under the TA language. Tulsa currently makes up just under 40% of the M&R headcount. Could the system absorb the 15% difference? With the amount of OT they are paying across the system I would say yes, plus it saves the company from trying to hire people off the street.

90% are coming from outside the industry Bob.


Like I said earlier.

Nothing will change until the PIG is dead.

You will be like Eastern Mechanics outside clamoring to management how you showed their asses while you lost your job an cost many others theirs.
All the while you are using loss of jobs as a reason to kill the PIG.

They just got rid of about 25% of the maintenance operations when they shelled out MCI and all the CLASS II statiions. And they did so without contract language change. When they get rid of AFW that will be another close to 25%. And they can do that without contract language change. But Tulsa will grow if they ever get the desired 7 day coverage.

You can fear monger me all you want about Tulsa being shuttered, but all indications are just the opposite is taking place.
Ask them to show you the INCOG agreement regarding employment levels at Tulsa tied to the Vision 2025 money Bob.
In case you are clueless, INCOG stands for Indian Nations Council of Governments or something to that effect.

Your propaganda without facts is really starting to annoy me.