The legally binding merger agreement with the DOJ, requires that AA retain "historical" service levels at CLT for 3 years from the date of merger approval. Although I recall reading it somewhere (I can't locate it now), there is an "escape" provision that the 3 year period can be reduced if the airline industry regresses into a sustained financial downturn.
Although it does not specifically state so, I would assume that the DOJ cannot require that the agreement apply to international routes. Regardless, it would seem a bit illogical to predict that CLT, or any other hub will be significantly downsized (domestically) before the 3 year waiting period. Also, NC is the only Hub state that did not join the DOJ suite, which gives CLT at least 1 stay alive point. Parker also seems to have viewed CLT as his sentimental favorite, if for no other reason than its ability to retain the obscenely low fee structure and associated Ticket Yields (typically even higher than DCA). It appears the consensus is that for the Eastern U.S., JFK (O&D), PHL (O&D+connecting) and MIA (O&D+Latin Connecting), will be the focus for international traffic. IMO, CLT will retain an AA LHR flight and maybe a seasonal MAD flight, both of which may be propped up with connecting traffic, primarily from non-mainline sourced cities. But if these flights don't perform on O&D after some period, they may be canceled and the connecting traffic moved to JFK/PHL. CLT had a great run (like CVG), but the economics of retaining acceptable margins with the current number of flights/personnel/Hub doesn't to me seem sustainable, particularly with the impending significant increases in overall labor costs.
