AAL Stock

[WorldTraveler]

nobody says that DL or other carriers won't face competitive pressures... but you are building your arguments about how well AA is doing before any of those carriers have begun to put the pressure on AA.

Does it not cross your mind that DL decided to accelerate its growth at LAX with new LHR and DFW flights SPECIFICALLY because DL is willing to let AA grow at LAX? no way.

if you want to talk about AA's growth at BOS, then admit that there is a real good chance that DL could choose to start BOS-ORD and BOS-MIA, both markets that DL has flown before and are key to AA's success in BOS.

the list could go on and on.

You and other AA fans want to think that other carriers are just going to roll over and allow AA/US to reap all the benefits from other carriers without contributing anything to the industry stability that the rest of the carriers are doing.... and you couldn't be further from the truth.

other carriers WILL target AA's top markets - just as they are doing right now - if AA chooses to use the benefits from the merger to push its way into other carrier strength markets rather than reduce industry capacity, close hubs, and raise prices and not just because US' pricing policies have been dismantled.

the fact that you try to frame the discussion repeatedly as a me vs you argument to the complete expense of solid business strategy shows what you really do not know - but you will clearly learn because what I said then and what I say is based on business strategy first and foremost.

 

[commavia]

Still stuck in your myopic worldview where Delta can act with impunity to "choose to start" new routes that are allegedly "key to AA's success," without any recognition of how AA will be able to do the same in return.  Again - "heads-Delta-wins-tails-everyone-else-loses."
 
This has never been "me vs you," this is "you vs reality."  Big difference.

 

[WorldTraveler]

well, duh. AA is ALREADY adding routes that matter to DL. Do you think that DFW-PVG and DFW-HKG have no effect on DL or UA? Who do you think flew JFK-DUB for years before AA decided to start it?

DL happens to be generating the profitability to do something about it - which is why DL is putting its own metal on LAX-LHR, is adding DFW-LAX, and why DL is adding 25% more capacity to Latin America.

So, AA is WELCOME to add all those new int'l routes if it likes but it will come at the cost of AA's most profitable routes to LHR and Latin America as well as DFW and MIA.

You seem to forget that AA's hubs are in markets that are larger than DL's which makes it far easier for DL to add service in AA markets than it does for AA to do the same to DL, esp. since AA controls a lower percentage of revenue in its key markets than AA does.

so, yeah, AA can indeed try to grow its network... but the fact that DL has managed to grow more in AA and UA markets than the other way around since deregulation shows that DL is at an advantage in growing its network compared to AA.

 

[commavia]

Adding DFW-HKG "comes at the expense" of LAX-LHR and MIA.
 
I love how we're now comparing the relative growth rate of Delta in "AA and UA markets" "since deregulation" - as if route networks from 1978 are somehow relevant to 2014.  Delta moved into the "AA market" of DFW "since deregulation," and has since pulled down a >250-daily-flight (at its peak) hub there - how does that one, enormous, retreat from an "AA market" stack up against all these other collective "adds" to "AA and UA markets?"  Could it perhaps be that Delta has - allegedly - grown more in "AA and UA markets" "since deregulation" because AA and UA have traditionally had a stronger presence in larger, higher-value places that Delta needed to serve while other carriers have been less enthusiastic about breaking into the markets where Delta has traditionally been strong?
 
I swear you couldn't make this stuff up ...

 

[WorldTraveler]

well we should just sit down for coffee with all the chit chat today.

no, LAX-LHR comes because DL is going to ensure that AA doesn't gain the competitive advantage from the merger than you seem to think that AA should be entitled to, esp. in DL's key markets.

let's go back over DFW one more time. DL pulled out 220 flights that contributed nothing to DL's position in the local market and deployed the capacity in ATL - where DL pushed FL back - and in NYC where DL managed to grow so much larger than it overtook AA as the largest airline at BOTH LGA and JFK.

So, yes, we can go back to deregulation because that is when airlines were free to fly where they wanted.

or we can go back to 2004 so DFW can be included. Despite your fixation with wanting to count the number of DL aircraft at DFW, the proper metric is DL's share of the market - which is only down by several percent since they pulled down DFW as a hub and that percentage will be even smaller if you consider the entire metroplex once AA has to compete against WN and DL from DAL and DL on DFW-LAX.

you do get the point that AA and UA had higher value local markets and DL has grown in them.... but what you can't counter is that AA has done a poorer job of growing into other carrier strength markets and has given up significant amount of presence in NYC, its former home and the largest market in the US.

 

[diamondcutter]

No, it wasn't lost.I specifically noted that AA is attempting to grow the SIZE of its int'l network by using resources - airplanes and people - that it has no choice but to use or pay high costs to remove.There isn't another airline in the industry that has decided that consolidation in the industry is justification for reducing load factors.the simple fact whether you two AA mgmt. loyalists (which is all the more ironic given that everyone knows how much you railed against Parker and the merger and yet you now line up behind him just as strongly as you did behind Horton and co.) is that Parker justified the economics of the merger based in large part based on US' pricing policies and low pay for its employees.The DOJ pointed out the communications that took place at AA/US over those pricing policies but you couldn't figure out they were a key reason for US' survival relative to the bigger legacies but also are the very reason that AA/US can now claim success in the marketplace - because those pricing policies have now been eliminated?trash industry pricing for years and then eliminate your strategy and then claim success because you finally had to end the practice or else face the consequences of it?and then you continually argue AGAINST the reality that other carriers such as WN will now provide the pricing discipline in new AA's key markets such as DCA and DFW. that is PRECISELY what the DOJ intended to do - and has succeeded at. AA/US bragged to the DOJ about their pricing power so the DOJ hit them with competition - exactly what they avoided - in the very markets where they most capable of harming consumers by eliminating US' behavior that kept market pricing in check?The DOJ didn't require that remedy from DL, WN, or UA.and the INDUSTRY is benefitting because of the elimination of US' pricing policies while the impact of the divestitures will be born by AA.as for labor costs, Parker knows full well that he has a small window in which he has labor cost advantages because of AA's BK and before the nAAtives - all of them - expect pay raises as a result of AA's success and in order to make the merger work.He is doing everything he can to grow AA as quickly as possible, including to fill in the holes in AA's network that US did noting to fix - and to do it all before competition showed up.No, AA is not doomed, screwed, or anything else.But AA has not demonstrated that it has what it takes to maintain the same level of success in the industry in the midst of much greater competition than it has today, with higher labor costs, and without the advantage of artificially induced RASM growth based on the elimination of AA/US' own pricing policies and not based on the strength of its own long term strategies.you and your internet supporters can vote my posts down dozens of times all day long but you would be better served understanding and addressing the strategic basis for what I say than in constantly running around trying to exterminate any bit of rational thought that might question what AA is doing.it's also worth noting that UA in its most recent traffic report stopped reporting its fuel costs which makes DL the only airline to do so. Given that UA's fuel costs on its traffic reports were always higher than DL's, it might highlight why they stopped - and why Parker doesn't want to show it either.

How the hell do you know what Parker knows , do you talk often?

You state AA has not demonstrate how it can sustain blah blah blah, well we are not even merged yet . Damn you really know how to spin topics!!!

 

[diamondcutter]

WT some of us really enjoy winding you up, it so easy!! Then, we can't wait for you to look up all the RASM, CASM, PLASMIN, TAZIN , FUCCASM numbers and regurgitate a book report from the Internet !! You and Parker must be such close friends, how else would you know his plans are for the future and what he knows to be true. I didn't realize airline CEO's make public their strategic plans for the future. Thanks for being our very own wizard of OZ, and Jimmity Cricket on how airlines run.

 

[WorldTraveler]

It doesn't take being friends to know that AA has signed billions of dollars of aircraft commitments that DL and WN don't have.

the article I cited shows that AA would have to far exceed DL's rate of profitability in order to exceed DL's cash generation.

We aren't even talking about LUV or ALK which also have the same philosophy about debt as DL has.

You can tell me how AA is going to be multiples more profitable than those three airlines - but better yet just show me the numbers if it happens.

until then, basic finance will show that AA cannot generate as much cash as ALK, DL, or LUV can .... and yet commavia specifically said he wanted to focus on core stats like cash generation and I showed him not only what professional analysts say about DL's cash generation compared to AA's but now he everyone wants to say that I can have no idea what Parker is planning.

in fact, we can. because AA has long-term financial commitments which are known which are directly tied to its ability to generate cash and profits.

by the way, AAL stock is rocketing upward solely because UA said its RASM isn't being hurt as badly as it had previously said it would be and even though UA's RASM growth is considerably less than DL or UA's.

bottom line is that investors have very little information to use to make an honest assessment of a business and they not only latch onto bad news that may or may not be accurate but they also take any glimmer of good news way out of proportion.

there simply is not enough history with how AAL has done for the market to adequately measure its success against DAL or LUV which are not only direct competitors but which have also demonstrated years of success in achieving their strategic and financial goals and not just the one quarter's worth of profitability which AAL has shown and which still doesn't address debt, competition, and having a competitive balance sheet.

and Parker is being far from honest to say that he is seeing no weakness in AA's int'l route system when AA's int'l LF in every int'l region is down based on capacity that AA couldn't sell without forcing its RASM down

 

[700UW]

Wrong again.
 
WN has 190 737-MAX on order and since 2010 they have ordered 60 737-800s.
 
And Delta has 100 737-900 on order and 45 A321s.
 
Seems both WN and DL have substantial cash outlays coming up, just like AA.

 

[diamondcutter]

Lol you crack me up. I challenge you... for one week to leave DL out of your post!! Think you could do it? Come on don't you think it's strange that you bring DL into every thread? Some would think your fascination and fixation with DL borderlines on unhealthy . Relax and enjoy the fact that you do know it all and will always be right and AA will be in BK in 2 yrs!!

 

[700UW]

Lol you crack me up. I challenge you... for one week to leave DL out of your post!! Think you could do it? Come on don't you think it's strange that you bring DL into every thread? Some would think your fascination and fixation with DL borderlines on unhealthy . Relax and enjoy the fact that you do know it all and will always be right and AA will be in BK in 2 yrs!!

Borderlines?
 
He has a sick obsession and he is bipolar or some other kind of mental disorder, go over to the IAM Steps Up Campaign thread on the DL Forum, he loses it.
 
Threatens to sue EOlsen, Snitch on Kev138 to DL management, and threatened to show up on my door.
 
Oh and wished a Delta A330 that diverted to CLT would jetblast me at full throttle.
 
He is a sick individual.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Wrong again.
 
WN has 190 737-MAX on order and since 2010 they have ordered 60 737-800s.
 
And Delta has 100 737-900 on order and 45 A321s.
 
Seems both WN and DL have substantial cash outlays coming up, just like AA.

and tell me how many aircraft AA/US has on order and over what period those aircraft will be accepted.

DL doesn't have 100 739s on order... they have a couple dozen or so in service.

and the deal was signed such that DL would take on no additional debt for the 739s, 333s, and 321s that are on order.

AA can't say that. neither can UA.  
 

Lol you crack me up. I challenge you... for one week to leave DL out of your post!! Think you could do it? Come on don't you think it's strange that you bring DL into every thread? Some would think your fascination and fixation with DL borderlines on unhealthy . Relax and enjoy the fact that you do know it all and will always be right and AA will be in BK in 2 yrs!!

nowhere did I say that AA would be back in BK.

I am pointing out that short-term profitability does not equate to the long-term financial strength that you think AA has.

US didn't have it. CO didn't have. and AA doesn't have it.

 

[diamondcutter]

Borderlines?
 
He has a sick obsession and he is bipolar or some other kind of mental disorder, go over to the IAM Steps Up Campaign thread on the DL Forum, he loses it.
 
Threatens to sue EOlsen, Snitch on Kev138 to DL management, and threatened to show up on my door.
 
Oh and wished a Delta A330 that diverted to CLT would jetblast me at full throttle.
 
He is a sick individual.

My god I had no idea !! That's really disturbing to hear. I had no idea it was that deep!! Well we have all heard this statement before....he was such a nice quit neighbor ! This is beyond having pity for him , it's scary!!

 

[700UW]

Better go check Boeing's web page.
 
And DL isnt paying cash for the 145 planes on order, they are taking on debt.

 

[700UW]

My god I had no idea !! That's really disturbing to hear. I had no idea it was that deep!! Well we have all heard this statement before....he was such a nice quit neighbor ! This is beyond having pity for him , it's scary!!

Check your messages.
 
http://www.airlineforums.com/topic/56594-iam-stepping-up-campaign/