AAL Stock

[eolesen]

This is really a silly discussion...

This week, AAL held its value better than UAL or DAL did:

Over the last 12 months, you can see where UAL and DAL trended against each other, and it's pretty clear DAL has tracked higher than AAL, but there's some convergence when you look at March-May). Then there's UAL, which has dropped relative to AAL, especially after the 1Q earnings in April.

The point being... anyone who really wants to paint a picture about a given stock can do so just by picking the date they start their comparison on, and the range of the comparison. One of mine, AAL outperformed DAL. In the other, DAL outperformed AAL.

So what?... Stock price isn't what I measure performance by, nor is it used by anyone other than people trying to buy low and sell high to make a few bucks.

 

[blue collar]

So what?... Stock price isn't what I measure performance by, nor is it used by anyone other than people trying to buy low and sell high to make a few bucks.

And used by people when it fits their narrative...

 

[WorldTraveler]

amen, E.

bless your little 4th of July heart.

and regardless of what AA or DL or WN does, they are all being helped by UA which continues to lose revenue.

they are the ones that are blinking first in cutting their int'l system in markets that AA and DL also serve.

blue collar,

you can't see that you wanted to look at snapshots to fit YOUR narrative?

Of course AAL stock will continue to improve and its total market cap might exceed DAL's.

It is a larger company for now.

but we still have not seen the effects of the Wright Amendment or the increased competition at DCA esp. due to the slot divestiture.

WN particularly has a laser like focus on expanding in the Caribbean and Latin America particularly from Texas and S. Florida, key markets for AA.

AA very well might do just fine in the midst of all of that new competition.

AA has integrated nothing as far as the merger including labor - which has proven to be THE difficulty in most mergers - just as it was with HP/US.


further:

United’s (UAL) leverage is high compared to most of its peers. Its debt-to-capital ratio of 82.5% compares to Delta (DAL) with 48%, Southwest Airlines (LUV) with 28% and JetBlue (JBLU) with 55%. Only American Airlines (AAL) is higher, at 94.6%. A high level of debt makes UAL risky for investors, as the obligations of debt holders takes precedence over providing returns for equity shareholders. Moreover, the company’s earnings would reduce to the extent of interest expense related to the debt. So investors would prefer companies with comparatively lower leverage levels and proven operating performance, which most of United’s peers offer. In order to be on par with its peers, United has to reduce its debt. The company has planned an average of $1.2 billion in annual scheduled debt and capital lease payments until 2017, which will reduce debt to $15 billion from $19 billion in 2013.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-continental-high-leverage-increases-210003950.html

to pretend that the trajectory will be as strong or that other competitors don't have their own strategies to increase their value is unpatriotic.

Happy Fourth.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

This is really a silly discussion...This week, AAL held its value better than UAL or DAL did:

Over the last 12 months, you can see where UAL and DAL trended against each other, and it's pretty clear DAL has tracked higher than AAL, but there's some convergence when you look at March-May). Then there's UAL, which has dropped relative to AAL, especially after the 1Q earnings in April.

The point being... anyone who really wants to paint a picture about a given stock can do so just by picking the date they start their comparison on, and the range of the comparison. One of mine, AAL outperformed DAL. In the other, DAL outperformed AAL.So what?... Stock price isn't what I measure performance by, nor is it used by anyone other than people trying to buy low and sell high to make a few bucks.

Thank you E. That was my intent of this thread. We can use it to watch AAL perform as investors, not employees.

Another thing. Thank you for posting links and graphs supporting your statistics. One thing I never saw from our DL cheerleader was supporting data posted with the qualified statements. You and many others here have the integrity to post the links, graphs, and actual links to where the factual information comes from to support your claims. I've seen it too many times where all one has to do is go cull the data and find out the narrative was crafted with pieces/parts to fit the qualified statement of the day.

You and FWAAA, among many others, regularly prove his claims misleading, and sometimes just plain false. My reading of the this airline forum has greatly improved since putting a few here on ignore.

Back on topic, I see that very many analysts are bullish on AAL. They are surprised to see the company moving ahead earlier then predicted. Most of the merger synergies are yet to be realized. I sincerely hope the employees come together to help drive two once-great airlines (of course many others rolled into those two) into the future as a cohesive unit. It will take great leadership to do that. I hope Parker can bring labor together and forge a strong road ahead.

 

[WeAAsles]

Back on topic, I see that very many analysts are bullish on AAL. They are surprised to see the company moving ahead earlier then predicted. Most of the merger synergies are yet to be realized. I sincerely hope the employees come together to help drive two once-great airlines (of course many others rolled into those two) into the future as a cohesive unit. It will take great leadership to do that. I hope Parker can bring labor together and forge a strong road ahead.

"Two things airline employees dislike the most: 1) Change 2) The way things are."

It's going to take some time for many to get over the past and look forward. I've personally seen what I believe are positive signs that Parker may be looking to mend the fenses of the past? The biggest issue will be how long it takes to get JCB agreements with all it's workers. If that process is stonewalled too long people are just going to fall back into the mindset that Parker and Co. are just the same old, same old. 

Otherwise for me I'm looking to the future but keeping one eye on the past.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Q,

I sent you the link and the beginnings to do your own graphs.

E's graphs still don't include either a 5 day or a "this week" graph.

Yahoo uses a 5 day trend which isn't totally accurate this week since trading was based on a 4 day week.

How can you claim to be able to compare anything if you put part of the discussion on ignore?

Let's be clear that the reason why you have no interest in what I say is because I take a dual track here of speaking about the business aspects of the industry and about the failures of the labor movement, esp. related to the DL merger.

I have also repeatedly posted that you chose to walk out with AMFA in one of the airline labor movement's stupiest moves since deregulation. You played right into NW's hands to cut labor costs dramatically.

The DL acquisition of NW went forward and you were left standing out in the cold whether that is what you wanted or not. DL employees have consistently voted against the unions that you still support despite the epic strategic failure that the union you belonged to engaged in.

There are always motivations for why people post what they post here and everything you post regarding has to be viewed within the framework that DL is a largely non-union airline and that you will always lash out at those who remind you of your own strategic failures in following AMFA.

specific to this topic, no one ever expected that AAL wouldn't succeed. Including me. I have simply said and will continue to say that AA faces more revenue challenges that any other airline has ever faced as part of a merge and labor integration is the trickiest part of any merger and AA has done absolutely none of it. If Parker can pull the same tactics he used at US and the AA workforce is kept happy, then he deserves a nobel peace prize but I don't think AA people are that stupid.

The industry EMBRACED the AA/US merger because even if AA doesn't remove capacity beyond what the DOJ requires them to do, they have eliminated US' bottom feeding pricing policies which are helping the entire industry.
IN regard to pricing, the AA/US merger is no different than AA/TW or WN/FL in which a low fare direct competitor was eliminated.

your last paragraph reflects exactly what I have said and believe: AA can be a great airline again. They emerged from BK and did their merger at a peak time in airline industry cycle. Parker is a far better business leader than AA's leadership in the 10 years prior to the merger.

weassles is absolutely right that AA labor is not going to play the same games that Parker played with US/HP labor.

And that means either AA/US people will remain significantly underpaid relative to their peers or there will be massive layoffs to match AA's workforce with comparable staffing levels at other airlines.

But AA/US in the honeymoon period of their merger. When they successfully are at the same 2-4 mark where DL and WN really hit the ground running after their mergers and where UA failed, then we can talk about how successful AA has been.

Investors don't necessarily think on those timelines; airline stocks have almost entirely been trading stocks.

If AA wants to be a high quality stock for the long-term, they have to do more than a quarter of strong financial reports which is all we have from them so far.

let's remember that Parker has imposed US' policies of not even releasing monthly RASM data which, IIRC, AA started. DL now provides not only monthly RASM data but also fuel cost data. UA provides only fuel cost data.

AAL investors have LESS information to make an accurate decision each month than they had before the merger.

and DAL is still the only of the big 4 that released traffic results for June before the July 4 holiday which is what precipitated movement in airline stocks this week.

 

[Kev3188]

Back on topic

 
 
Yes please.

 

[WorldTraveler]

the topic is AAL stock performance - which like any other statistic is meaningless on a standalone basis.

This page is full of discussions about AAL stock performance and what is driving it.

 

[jcw]

you need to start the graphs at the same start date - AA only starts half way into the graph
 
If you run the graph from Dec 9 2013 you will see the difference

 

[eolesen]

JCW, I chose the 12 month view intentionally. If you don't see where DAL and UAL were already trending, you don't see the real story, which isn't how AAL is doing against its peers -- it's how much worse UAL is doing against its peers.

 

[WorldTraveler]

UAL's problems are more adequately explained by the fact that their market cap is less than half of DL's $32 billion and less than even LUV.

There is absolutely no doubt that the market doesn't believe that UA is as valuable of an airline as any of the other big 4.

And as long as UA struggles in the marketplace, all of the other 3 also benefit not just for investors but more significantly in the marketplace where UA continues to lose revenue.

 

[jcw]

JCW, I chose the 12 month view intentionally. If you don't see where DAL and UAL were already trending, you don't see the real story, which isn't how AAL is doing against its peers -- it's how much worse UAL is doing against its peers.

 
I understand your point on UA and get it - my point is - once they began trading (Dec 9th) and the "gun" went off for the race - AAL is outperforming DAL - the period in bankrupy you can't count for AAL just like we could not have counted the period DAL was in bankrupcy
 
You could run the same graph for all three from Dec 9th and it would show - AAL 1st, DAL 2nd and UA 3rd

 

[1AA]

Today taking another nose dive.

 

[AA Tulsa Mechanic]

Today taking another nose dive.

What's your point? It will go back up, way up.

 

[700UW]

Seems to be rebounding.
 
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/aal