Outstanding analysis of AAL's finances

[Glenn Quagmire]

The analists [sic] surely must have their calendar set each Monday morning to see what pearls of wisdom have been spewed forth over the weekend. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if market swings are attributed to the amazing truth teller (at least when he is making **** up).

I'm sure the FT, CNBC, WSJ, and others have all made unworthy offers to harness the Whole Truth greatness displayed on these pages.

Airliners.net really blew it when they banned him for life.

 

[WeAAsles]

Yep.
 
"Outstanding analysis."  Meh.  Apparently cutting-and-pasting charts from other peoples' actual analyses via Google searches now passes as "analysis."
 
Before we all get so hot and bothered about AA's looming debt crisis - bankruptcy is coming, I'm sure we'll soon here - let's not forget the metric Delta itself has continually used over and over in the last few years - net debt.  That takes into account not only gross debt, but also cash, and while AA has lots of debt right now, it also has lots of cash (a this "outstanding analysis" points out).  Using Delta's own definition (calculation), Delta ended 2Q14 with about $9.1B in net debt (including $3.7B in cash and cash-equivalents).  AA, using pretty much the same calculation methodology, ended 2Q14 with about $13.5B in net debt (including $10.6B in cash and cash-equivalents).  Delta - rightfully - takes credit for reducing net debt by $7.5B since 2009, meaning their net debt level post-bankruptcy and post-merger was around $17B.  AA is already $3.5B below that and the merger closed in December.

Exactly what I was thinking and wondering before you posted the information.

 

[WeAAsles]

The analists [sic] surely must have their calendar set each Monday morning to see what pearls of wisdom have been spewed forth over the weekend. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if market swings are attributed to the amazing truth teller (at least when he is making #### up).
I'm sure the FT, CNBC, WSJ, and others have all made unworthy offers to harness the Whole Truth greatness displayed on these pages.
Airliners.net really blew it when they banned him for life.

They banned him for life? lol. If Delta was a woman that guy would be its Cuckold.

 

[WorldTraveler]

everyone on this board knows AA is second class to DL - WE GET IT

how incredibly sad it is that you have come to that conclusion - because that is not what I have EVER said.

I get the pride AA people have in their organization - I really do.

but when someone (or a group of people) can't even read a few facts about their company without going on the defensive, I'm not sure I am the one with the problem.

I wish AA people well. I do.

All I have pointed out is that AA has emerged from BK and is enjoying a positive revenue environment that is possible because half of the merger made it difficult for the other half and now wants to show the world how great of an idea the merger was.

I am sure AA will restructure well.... but they aren't there yet.

that is all I have pointed out.... no one said anything about another bankruptcy or anything else.

are you all capable of discussing the article and the facts in it and that is all?

 

[exs]

I really want to know what is the point of this thread. I have a question for you WT, YOU GIVES A RAT'S ASS?
 
I started with AA 25 years ago and I can probably count in one hand how many years they have been profitable and you know what, I'm still here. I really don't really care if there profitable or not, I know they don't give a crap about me. When I started with this company I used to enjoy it, now I look at it as a cash cow like everyone else in the Industry. I work my 8 hrs, stay out of trouble and go home. No more no less. I don't worry about these numbers you love to post because I don't worry about things I can not control. These articles are a joke and everyone has an opinion, It's called SPECULATION!! Maybe this person who wrote this article is pissed because he didn't join the party and didn't buy AAL stock when it was in the 30 dollar range and wants to put some negative info out there, who knows. And do not tell me that wall street does not do that and is not allowed to do that. These analysts come out with articles that drive the stock up the as far as they can and wait for negative numbers to come out and then short the hell out of the stock. Hell, look at APPLE, they have over 100 billion in cash reserves but the stock still dropped from $700 to less than $500.00 and I guarantee someone made money on that drop and why because some schmucks on wall street say that Apple has run out of ideas or there not selling enough iPads or iPhones and are not going to meet there forecasts.Give me a break, Maybe you should go to New York and see if JP Morgan listens to you, because I sure don't.
 
Like I said before I am still here and lucky to still be here, but you know what's F'cked up is that these companies including AA has layed off thousands to meet those forecasts and the numbers you post.
 
Corporate America, got to love it!!
 
PLEASE....GIVE IT A REST ALREADY!!!

 

[jcw]

how incredibly sad it is that you have come to that conclusion - because that is not what I have EVER said.

I get the pride AA people have in their organization - I really do.

but when someone (or a group of people) can't even read a few facts about their company without going on the defensive, I'm not sure I am the one with the problem.

I wish AA people well. I do.

All I have pointed out is that AA has emerged from BK and is enjoying a positive revenue environment that is possible because half of the merger made it difficult for the other half and now wants to show the world how great of an idea the merger was.

I am sure AA will restructure well.... but they aren't there yet.

that is all I have pointed out.... no one said anything about another bankruptcy or anything else.

are you all capable of discussing the article and the facts in it and that is all?

 
No one can discuss an article with you since you twist everything around to how DL is better than AA - or twist it to "illustrate" how much trouble AA is in - I use facts and many others do - it's not the majority of posters on here who can't discuss items using facts it's someone else who struggles with the facts - for example cash flow per quarter vs per year

 

[WorldTraveler]

given the nature of the airline industry, if you are in the top 75% of seniority or more of an airline, you are going to retain a job regardless of what happens

So, if your goal is simply to keep a job, then you can stop worrying about the business aspects of the business not long into your career at an airline.

But AA IS a business - a for-profit business that competes with other for-profit businesses.

There would be no need to discuss anything the business aspects of the airline industry if the goal was to not ruffle the feathers of the majority of the airline employees.

but airline employees have financial interest in the success of their employers and employees aren't the only stakeholders in a company.

customers, stockholders, and others have a financial interest in the success of airlines as well.

beyond finance and business interests, this board also touches on labor, operational, and service issues; why is it so difficult that if you don't want to talk about a specific topic that you just don't open it?

I, for one, find the endless "my union is better than your union" threads which constitute a big chunk of this forum actually quite laughable and I venture to them only long enough to harvest a good quote and then move on.

but it is the steady diet for some here to participate in those types of threads.

AA is a fixture of US aviation - a historical centerpiece that is emblematic of both what is good and bad.

the question is why it is so hard for some people to accept any criticism - valid and corroborated.

within minutes of my initial post on this thread, FWAAA, who is a pretty intelligent and educated person, jumped onto finding the one flaw I wrote in my post and focused like a laser on highlighting it.

there is ABSOLUTELY nothing wrong with challenging the factual basis of what is said, including finding errors.
but in the process FWAAA glossed over a number of significant issues that the article raised, both good and bad.

and then commavia came along and defensively started trying to compare debt levels between AA and other airlines.

in fact, there are a number of analyses that have compared the debt levels among the US airlines and consistently noted that AAL is at the very high end of the US industry.

this article specifically noted that AAL's debt levels are very high and made comparisons to AA's competitors.

again, any one of you can say "who cares... none of this stuff affects me" and you are likely right.

but there are people who continue to post articles and make comparisons of how well AA does relative based on one financial or industry metric or another - so it apparently does matter.

I want AA to survive and successfully restructure and I have repeatedly said that.

I also recognize that after 10 years of a long and dragged out restructuring, there is an immense desire among AA people to find success again.

my posts of late have only been to highlight that AA has done a great job with its merger so far, but that there were a number of factors that set AA/US up to look good, specifically US' actions that were counter to AA's own standalone success.

Now, many here want to proclaim success without realizing there are still enormous tasks ahead of AA that are necessary to fully integrate the airline and to be able to say tat AA/US is in the same league as DL and UA and WN who are much further along in completing their mergers.

again, best of luck to everyone at AA.

may the merger continue to deliver what you expected from it.

but if you want to make claims about how well AA is doing, don't be surprised if someone reminds you that AA is still far from being in the same long-term position as the other airlines that have gone before in the megamerger process and note the specific, business reasons why.

and if you can keep your job without reading or worrying about any of it, great for you.

 

[robbedagain]

its amazin many investors sure pick AA and or raise their stocks higher or are bullish  seems to me the investors know a lot more of the inner works and like what they see   and given the fact the pmus has ta in place to be voted on Friday everything "seems" to be favoring a much better outlook than the scare tatics someone posts which in turn makes dl better than anyone else.  

 

[LD3]

It's amazing how you get more info from a 25 word post from comm, fwaaa, e and others than muddling through 1000+ words from WT. I can only make it through 25% of his post and then I get bored....

 

[WeAAsles]

It's amazing how you get more info from a 25 word post from comm, fwaaa, e and others than muddling through 1000+ words from WT. I can only make it through 25% of his post and then I get bored....

He is more than likely a PAID blogger. They get paid by the amount of words they post usually to sell a particular product or opinion on social media sites. There is no debate because the writings have to be slanted towards the product or point of view. In which case that is Delta Airlines.

The company knows this is a popularly read site within the industry so it's worth it to them to have an employee on here to tout up their successes to at the very least attempt to raise the confidence in the corporation.

 

[jcw]

It's amazing how you get more info from a 25 word post from comm, fwaaa, e and others than muddling through 1000+ words from WT. I can only make it through 25% of his post and then I get bored....

 
bless his heart - it must get paid by the word from DL

 

[WorldTraveler]

its amazin many investors sure pick AA and or raise their stocks higher or are bullish  seems to me the investors know a lot more of the inner works and like what they see   and given the fact the pmus has ta in place to be voted on Friday everything "seems" to be favoring a much better outlook than the scare tatics someone posts which in turn makes dl better than anyone else.

no, robbed there are no scare tactics. All I am interested is an honest assessment of what is going on.

I have repeatedly said that AA has done a great job of emerging from BK and of merging wtih US ... but it has yet to demonstrate on a sustained basis that it is on the same peer as other airlines that have finished their mergers, don't have any costly integrations ahead of them, and are spending far less than AA is now or in the future.


 

He is more than likely a PAID blogger. They get paid by the amount of words they post usually to sell a particular product or opinion on social media sites. There is no debate because the writings have to be slanted towards the product or point of view. In which case that is Delta Airlines.

The company knows this is a popularly read site within the industry so it's worth it to them to have an employee on here to tout up their successes to at the very least attempt to raise the confidence in the corporation.

if I am getting paid, I do wish someone would let me know where the paycheck is going because it isn't getting to me.

If the site is that popular, then it shows the value of having honest and open dialogue.

 

[700UW]

Its stuck in Venezuela!

 

[jcw]

open and honest dialogue starts with facts which are lacking in a significant part of the time of your very very long posts - bless your heart
 
You keep saying it -  so you are obviously wrapped up in your sense of facts which are opposite of most other posters understand the facts to believe - especially when things are misquoted or transformed to your point of view
 
Once again let's convert this to DL board

 

[robbedagain]

thought it had already been converted to the dl forum!   WT  it does take some time but you need to remember the fact is for the 1st quarter the new AA reported dam good profit and the outlook is real good