AA Down Under and Trans Pac?

[eolesen]

The most interesting takeaway from those statistics, to me, is that whether inclusive or exclusive of the Caribbean, AA's MIA hub is between 1/2-2/3 larger than the second largest U.S. carrier gateway/hub to the region.
 
I'd be curious to know if there is any other geographic region in the U.S. for which the #1 U.S. carrier gateway/hub is >50% larger than the #2 gateway/hub.  I doubt that the #1 U.S. carrier gateway/hub across the Atlantic - I suspect United at EWR - is anywhere close to 50-65% larger than the #2, which I suspect is Delta at JFK.  United at SFO, perhaps?

Interesting question. And again, DL comes up short depending on how you slice the data... Here are March ASM's across the entire month. My previous charts were using just a mid-month week in March, but hey, let's look at the whole burrito...
 

DOT Latam Month ASMs Ops
AA MIA MAR 916654320 3069
DL ATL MAR 540805669 1812 59%
UA IAH MAR 458003146 1644 50%
AA DFW MAR 314203870 1154
UA EWR MAR 298898700 932
B6 JFK MAR 239950330 976
AA JFK MAR 184670042 307
DL JFK MAR 174524571 565
JJ MIA MAR 172347651 172
UA ORD MAR 145221186 391


Trad Latam Month ASMs Ops
AA MIA MAR 717576942 1835
UA IAH MAR 420957297 1503 59%
DL ATL MAR 414409341 1167 58%
AA DFW MAR 304568510 1114
UA EWR MAR 183055293 476
JJ MIA MAR 172347651 172
AA JFK MAR 155155904 195
QT MIA MAR 105791924 247
UA ORD MAR 105431506 259
JJ JFK MAR 93633144 93

Even across the month, DL can't beat UA unless you include the Caribbean. I'd hope they'd be stronger there than UA given the two east coast hubs, but the point is that DL doesn't se habla quite as mas as UA and AA do.

EWR for UA has a pretty large margin over both ATL and JFK. It's only when you include Africa and the Middle East that DL inches closer.
 

Europe Month ASMs Ops
UA EWR MAR 535622016 773
DL ATL MAR 388516570 372 73%
DL JFK MAR 362072069 411 68%
UA IAD MAR 319802389 365
AA PHL MAR 283350638 306
AA JFK MAR 255784812 296
BA JFK MAR 222139218 285
AA DFW MAR 221382607 186
AA MIA MAR 213672199 182
UA IAH MAR 210035882 182

EMEA Month ASMs Ops
UA EWR MAR 629615628 835
DL ATL MAR 570630007 465 91%
DL JFK MAR 437028338 468 69%
UA IAD MAR 406718979 412
EK JFK MAR 332299154 117
AA PHL MAR 329387126 337
AA JFK MAR 255784812 296
UA IAH MAR 245634332 207
BA JFK MAR 222139218 285
AA DFW MAR 221382607 186

To APAC, DL falls behind UA at both SFO and EWR plus QF at LAX. Take out the South Pacific, and the story doesn't change much.
 

APAC Month ASMs Ops
UA SFO MAR 559446337 292
QF LAX MAR 405941684 135 73%
UA EWR MAR 364692897 186 65%
DL DTW MAR 303394732 139
UA ORD MAR 295278472 124
CX LAX MAR 294350000 119
CX JFK MAR 281742640 102
AA DFW MAR 277941599 151
HA HNL MAR 224791486 176
KE LAX MAR 212384296 99
UA LAX MAR 206531279 123
DL SEA MAR 201025890 154


NorPac Month ASMs Ops
UA SFO MAR 497529262 261
UA EWR MAR 364692897 186 73%
DL DTW MAR 303394732 139 61%
UA ORD MAR 295278472 124
CX LAX MAR 294350000 119
CX JFK MAR 281742640 102
AA DFW MAR 277941599 151
KE LAX MAR 212384296 99
DL SEA MAR 201025890 154
BR LAX MAR 192142278 89

That's real data. Not something made up or conditionalized to make a great narrative. It's also verifiable, something you won't find with the footnoted "Whole" Truth.

 

[WorldTraveler]

first, the majority of the Caribbean IS part of DOT Latin America. just because you don't want to include it doesn't really matter.

there is no real data or whole truth when you choose to redefine industry standards to fit your narrative.

Further, it is no great rocket science to understand that IAH caters more to Central America and ethnic traffic while ATL and MIA cater to a broader sector of the entire Latin market with a disproportionately larger portion going to the Caribbean.

and as much as you might want to believe otherwise, DL's ATL and AA's MIA hub have fairly similar compositions regarding capacity and revenue to the Caribbean, Central America, and deep S. America.

UA has proportionately very little Caribbean traffic from IAH because the western US is not a large market for the Caribbean compared to the Eastern US. Most of UA's Caribbean traffic flows thru EWR.

Ethnic Central America traffic is higher value than Caribbean traffic which is why UA's average fares to Latin America are higher than DL's.

second, I have consistently given the benefit quoting peak schedules to a region WHENEVER I have quoted them and regardless of the carrier.


March is within one of the peaks to Latin America but it is not peak to Europe or Asia.

It is no more realistic to include AA's traffic or capacity to Europe in the winter when we all know that they are still in the process of restructuring their network.

Further, UA is actually implementing the same seasonal adjustments to capacity that DL has done to Europe for years - and it appears that AA will be doing the same thing to its nAAtive network as well.

further, UA does not have a secondary hub that is anywhere close in size to EWR. DL at ATL is about 80% of the size of JFK on a fairly consistent basis because DL increases both significantly during the summer.

All you do by quoting a single offpeak month is highlight exactly why AA and UA are following DL's lead in making its TATL operation year around profitable.

and capacity is easily pullable for larger period of time, including from DOT data to properly reflect more than a single month.

and the same seasonal adjustments apply to DL's TPAC operation as well. Further, not only do eastern hubs generate far more ASMs because of distance but they also are more likely to be downsized in offpeak months.

once again, let's keep in mind that DL has been profitable across both of the Atlantic and the Pacific on a year around basis for several years - and it is NOT merely because of an accounting issue. AA and UA's actions to follow DL across the Atlantic and even on the Pacific to the extent that AA has enough mass to reduce capacity validate that see DL's strategy as what they want to pursue.

your presentation of data should reflect either correct peak/off-peak periods or better yet include large enough time periods that you can cover the different seasonal strategies that each carrier uses.

finally, the number of seats is at least as meaningful stat as the number of ops and probably more so.


the only whole truth is that you have access to data but no real understanding of the industry behind the data... but don't wonder you're pretty consistent in doing it so we are prepared for when you pipe up.

 

[jcw]

Look who can't handle the truth - actually glad to see DL emulate US who has for a very long time adjusted winter flying to Europe - a couple other interesting factoids

What had a decline in load factor in almost every market in February?

Who took 6 years to rejoin the S&P and who took 15 months after leaving BK?

Serious tough ones

 

[WorldTraveler]

uh, DL has been flying the Atlantic FAR longer than US has. It is US who has emulated DL's TATL strategy and not the other way around.

and if you want to use Feb capacity data, then AA will be a pretty small airline to Europe this year. It is precisely because AA's capacity will increase by the summer that using their summer capacity makes more sense.

DL increased revenue based on its Feb traffic report and projected RASM change. AA shrunk. UA likely shrunk as well.

Load factor means nothing if it results in losing revenue.

further, airlines have more than enough capacity available in the winter. The only reason NOT to fly more is if the pricing environment won't support the capacity.

DL is likely the ONLY one of the big 3 that will increase revenue in the first quarter based on increased traffic that offsets the RASM decline.

keep a finger on that stat but it will be one that will absolutely be worth comparing when 1st quarter financials come out about the 3rd week of April.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Wow!
Almost 600 words of propaganda in an attempt to refute/discredit 5 simple columns of data.
Talk about unhinged!

 

[WorldTraveler]

Anyone can pull a bunch of data.

Being able to know WHAT data to present, what to include and what not to include, and how to interpret it is a far different task.

and I could have left E alone had he not intentionally manipulated industry standard definitions and categories so he could recast the story the way he wanted to.

 

[FWAAA]

 

[eolesen]

Why stop with March? Let's look at July, which arguably is more important for Asia and Europe...
 

DOT Latam		Month	ASMs	Ops	
AA	MIA	JUL	975656227	3381	
DL	ATL	JUL	533899710	1825	55%
UA	IAH	JUL	491429780	1946	50%
B6	JFK	JUL	343260190	1361	
AA	DFW	JUL	308145121	1075	
UA	EWR	JUL	269409220	880	
DL	JFK	JUL	185228496	592	
JJ	MIA	JUL	182023130	182	
AA	JFK	JUL	164157312	282	
AA	CLT	JUL	148134916	741	
					
					
Trad Latam					
AA	MIA	JUL	759292433	2005	
UA	IAH	JUL	436322754	1720	57%
DL	ATL	JUL	411380995	1213	54%
AA	DFW	JUL	290263681	997	
JJ	MIA	JUL	182023130	182	
UA	EWR	JUL	167302435	445	
AA	JFK	JUL	135231920	155	
JJ	JFK	JUL	114135366	93	
QT	MIA	JUL	107598134	250	
DL	LAX	JUL	96427135	309	
					
DOT Europe					
UA	EWR	JUL	740234560	1014	
DL	ATL	JUL	681919755	613	92%
DL	JFK	JUL	677448681	806	92%
AA	PHL	JUL	507914478	558	
UA	IAD	JUL	420032981	496	
UA	ORD	JUL	379650066	403	
AA	JFK	JUL	365973724	434	
AA	CLT	JUL	284967345	248	
DL	DTW	JUL	276541452	248	
UA	SFO	JUL	275440053	155	
					
EMEA					
DL	ATL	JUL	864033192	706	
UA	EWR	JUL	834228172	1076	97%
DL	JFK	JUL	801376935	899	93%
AA	PHL	JUL	553950966	589	
UA	IAD	JUL	510611468	545	
UA	ORD	JUL	379650066	403	
EK	JFK	JUL	371122638	124	
AA	JFK	JUL	365973724	434	
AA	CLT	JUL	284967345	248	
DL	DTW	JUL	276541452	248	
					
APAC					
UA	SFO	JUL	637669752	341	
QF	LAX	JUL	412112665	137	65%
UA	EWR	JUL	364692897	186	57%
AA	DFW	JUL	336670881	186	
CX	LAX	JUL	316332000	128	
DL	DTW	JUL	316286114	146	
UA	ORD	JUL	295278472	124	
CX	JFK	JUL	278551276	101	
DL	SEA	JUL	248798281	186	
HA	HNL	JUL	227861434	178	
UA	LAX	JUL	217514321	124	
CA	LAX	JUL	205012953	107	
					
NorPac					
UA	SFO	JUL	575752677	310	
UA	EWR	JUL	364692897	186	63%
AA	DFW	JUL	336670881	186	58%
CX	LAX	JUL	316332000	128	
DL	DTW	JUL	316286114	146	
UA	ORD	JUL	295278472	124	
CX	JFK	JUL	278551276	101	
DL	SEA	JUL	248798281	186	
CA	LAX	JUL	205012953	107	
KE	LAX	JUL	204920444	99

I have to say I hadn't really paid attention to where UA's strengths were until I did this exercise, and it's amazing how strong they are at not only SFO and EWR but also IAH. I didn't expect to see them in the top 2 for just about every region except Carib/LatinAmer. I'm surprised a bit to see how ORD ranks for AA and UA, and that MSP is missing entirely for DL. Well, maybe not entirely surprised regarding MSP...

 

[dariencc]

Being able to know WHAT data to present, what to include and what not to include, and how to interpret it is a far different task.
 

 
Are you talking about your repeated, irrelevant references to the DL crew's "textbook configuration" of the aircraft in the LGA accident?  You don't know squat about airplanes and are in no postion to know what to include or how to interpret anything.  But that doesn't stop you now, does it?
 
What a tool.
 

but you can't tell me that DL pilots didn't configure the aircraft for landing per DL's training manuals, can you?

 

[WorldTraveler]

E,

the data is far more accurate using peak seasonality... and it is ok to show both months as well.

regarding APAC, you forgot one very important hub: NRT.

DL's NRT hub for this July has MORE flights (572 for the month) and just under 5000 seats per day on a one way basis and 578 million ASMS. UA has a hub at NRT too with about 2/3% of the flights (403) and seats and 483 million ASMs.

Those statistics make DL's NRT hub the 2nd largest APAC hub operated by a US carrier based on ASMs but the largest based on seats and ASMs.

based solely on the northern Pacific definition you use, DL's NRT hub is the largest US carrier hub.

since DL still serves 5 destinations in Asia in addition to NRT itself, it is still one of the largest hubs based on destinations in Asia as well. and DL still has the leisure markets from NRT, some of which are not dependent on US flow traffic and are still not part of the US.

If you include UAs NRT hub, it is larger than either IAH or EWR.

and you can include QF at LAX if you want but it is hard to really argue it is a hub since it serves just 3 cities in one country. the reason why it pops to the top of the list is not because 4.5 flights/day but because of the huge number of ASMs that are generated because of the distance.


As for UA's size, again, CO was a very international airline - half international at its peak. CO mgmt. is now in charge at UA and still believes in the heavily int'l model - as evidence by the fact that UA is the smallest domestic airline of the big 3 by a fairly wide margin.

And UA also has done a fairly good job (CO really did it) of creating global hubs at both EWR and IAH. Even if US carriers don't get a whole lot of int'l to int'l connections because of US visa requirements, marketing size and operational efficiency (scheduling) does come from having a large hub.

by the same token, if you look at what DL has done post merger at both DTW and ATL, they are both far more global hubs than either were pre-merger.

if you look at the size of total non-US operations, DL's ATL hub is the largest int'l hub operated by US carriers with around 17,000 int'l seats per day with 1.5 billion ASMs followed by UA at EWR with 14K seats/day with slightly less ASMs. AA's MIA hub comes in next but since MIA is largely Latin focused even with a decent European focus, it shows how large of a Latin hub MIA is.
DL at ATL and UA at EWR are both 5 continent hubs as are DL at JFK and UA at IAH. Since AA does not serve Africa or Australia with its own aircraft, it does not have any 5 continent hubs.

btw, while you say that you have me on ignore, I enjoy having a good discussion like this with you.
no personal attacks make for a great forum discussion, even with differing perspectives.

Hope your day is great!

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

A challenge by World Fraudster ....
 

your presentation of data should reflect either correct peak/off-peak periods or better yet include large enough time periods that you can cover the different seasonal strategies that each carrier uses.

finally, the number of seats is at least as meaningful stat as the number of ops and probably more so.

 
... got this response:
 

Why stop with March? Let's look at July, which arguably is more important for Asia and Europe...

What a smackdown!

 

Predictably, a circle the wagons for DL reply was promptly posted.
 

 
These diatribes of World Fraudster were hilarious to read, actually they still are, but at the same time it is almost painful.
 

 

[WorldTraveler]

and you prove why you are incapable of having an intelligent discussion and instead injecting yourself into a relatively peaceful discussion which E and I were having.

in case you read what I wrote, I specifically noted that Asia and Europe peak in the US summer. E's response and additional data was specifically in response to the expanded schedule data which I suggested provide a more accurate picture.

here's the period 1 class for you today:
just keep your nose out of any discussion that involves intelligent thinking or conversation and leave it to those who are capable of doing more than just slamming someone else.

looks like the only one that schooled was you... but since your average in class is an F-, it is doubtful that you will get anything more than a social promotion.

butt out until and unless you can actually contribute something intelligent the conversation.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

and you prove why you are incapable of having an intelligent discussion

butt out until and unless you can actually contribute something intelligent the conversation.

 
Would this count as an example of an intelligent conversation?
 

AA at LAX is just a connecting point between Oklahoma and Hawaii.

 

[jcw]

Your definition of an intelligent conversation is unless DL is the best at anything it's not intelligent - which is hilarious

You are presented with factual data source after data source and can't handle the truth

You need help serious help

 

[JFK Fleet Service]

The vast majority of the AA forum has been hoping you'll 'butt out' for years.