Word is AA/US have settled with the DOJ

[cltrat]

If WT is who has to tell you that is the way it will work, then consider yourself educated.

yeah lol that's the first thing I think when I read something of yours.

I,m sure Forbes, all the lawyers and merger financial experts hired by AA/US knowledge pales compared to yours.

Dude you are so full of crap your eyes are brown.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Depends. US knows how many people were flying on a US flight connecting to LH, UA, or another Star partner. That's not going to show up in the public DOT data, but maybe they know something looking at the actual unredacted data that you can't figure out from your kitchen table in Brasil...


At best AA has half the local market? You're the one smoking crack.

WN operates 200 flights a day out of DAL, and won't be able to increase that substantially because they're already maxed out on gates.

DFW has a total of about 950 flights a day, and AA represents 770 of those.

Combined market = 1150 flights, of which AA operates 67%, and WN operates 17%.

You can go ahead and adjust for seat gauge, but that's just going to skew the data further.

AA's still 4x larger than WN in the Dallas/Fort Worth market, and always will be.

You truly don't have a clue, E.

Local market share is not defined by how many planes a carrier pushes thru a city.

AA runs a hub operation with an average of 2/3 of passengers that board AA planes at DFW simply passing thru.

WN runs a largely point to point operation and uses aircraft that are far larger than the RJs which make up several hundred of those flights which you want to count.

WN also doesn't have the right to serve most of the cities from DAL that AA serves from DFW.


WN's market share of the combined DAL/DFW market to the cities which they can serve OVERWHELMING is in favor of WN, including to cities like STL and MCI which WN entered by driving down fares until they gained equal shares of the market with AA and then allowed fares to raise back up.

In the most recent quarter, WN's share of the DAL/DFW-MCI local market was 56% of passengers at nearly identical average fares to AA's 43%.

52/47 for WN in STL.

DO you also think anyone in Texas is going to believe you that anyone other than WN is the dominant carrier in the N. Texas to Houston market even though WN only serves one airport on each end?

61% for WN in the combined HOU/IAH market at higher average fares than AA or UA.

57% for WN to MSY.

Your notion that AA has any dominance in any market in which WN can compete in from DAL is merely a fantasy in your head because it isn't supported by reality.
And yes DOT data does show how many connections flow between carriers, esp. to joint venture partner carriers.

It's a shame that someone who claims to know as much as you do about the industry is so willing to stick your foot in your mouth to prove someone wrong and then confirm how ignorant you really are about the industry.
 

yeah lol that's the first thing I think when I read something of yours.

I,m sure Forbes, all the lawyers and merger financial experts hired by AA/US knowledge pales compared to yours.

Dude you are so full of crap your eyes are brown.

my eyes are blue, my friend.

You can only wish that I was full of sh78 because I have been your worst nightmare this week or maybe your company's anyway.

You thought this settlement agreement would be smooth sailing.

You clearly didn't check with the neighbors before starting the party which has now been cancelled.

 

[MetalMover]

3. troll

1a. Noun 
One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroupor message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument. 

1b. Noun 
A person who, on a message forum of some type, attacks andflames other members of the forum for any of a number of reasons such as rank, previous disagreements, sex, status, ect. 
A troll usually flames threads without staying on topic, unlike a "Flamer" who flames a thread because he/she disagrees with the content of the thread. 

1c. Noun 
A member of an internet forum who continually harangues and harasses others. Someone with nothing worthwhile to add to a certain conversation, but rather continually threadjacks or changes the subject, as well as thinks every member of the forum is talking about them and only them. Trolls often go by multiple names to circumvent getting banned.

 

[700UW]

The DOT does it all the time, LGA slots, DCA slots, JFK slots, and the former ORD and EWR slots.
 
They also rule on who has gotten the Air21 slots and beyond perimter slots.
 
You are truly blinded by your cult like obsession of DL.
 
The facts and examples all ready exist.
 
Did not the DOJ and DOT reject the DL/US swap the first time?
They have the power, too bad so sad, and accept it.
 
Must suck to live your life in fear.
 
They didnt say they cant bid, they said they shouldnt as they wouldnt get them as they dont fit the criteria put forth.

 

[WorldTraveler]

If a troll is one who has to continually speak to the most basic aspects of the industry which others get wrong, then that is a position I will gladly take - because I have the knowledge to do it.

I haven't lived in Texas in more than 20 years but I still know with complete clarify the role WN plays in transportation and what role AA plays - and no one on the street would have any difficult knowing the difference.

Here on airline forums, that might be too much to ask of those who call themselves industry experts, though.

The DOT has never categorically said that a particular airline or type of airline can serve any type of route. Slots including the Air21 slots have been awarded on the basis of the quality of the service proposal. That is a realistic and established criteria.

They have not and cannot say that one or more airlines cannot participate in a route proceeding.

It must be terrible to live your life in such ignorance all the while trying to prove others wrong - and only digging a deeper hole for yourself to climb out of.

 

[cltrat]

actually I am laughing my ass off at you.
you haven't bothered me at all other than hijacking thread after thread with your drivel.
The party beingcancelled? what party and cancelled by who?? DL? Bahhaaaaahh right

 

[cltrat]

tell you what WT
you know how AA could make a great profit?

They could buy you for what you are worth and sell you for what you think you are worth.

 

[WorldTraveler]

actually I am laughing my ass off at you.
you haven't bothered me at all other than hijacking thread after thread with your drivel.
The party beingcancelled? what party and cancelled by who?? DL? Bahhaaaaahh right

this is a thread about the AA/US settlement. Since it isn't material you want to hear, of course it is drivel.

Doesn't change that it is about the subject and you have no ability to contribute anything to the discussion so you resort to character assassination.

Don't worry, though. You aren't the only one with this problem on this forum.

 

[cltrat]

man you are spouting the same stuff in a dozen threads thus the term drivel

 

[WorldTraveler]

except that it is real... and exactly what you don't want to hear.

DL isn't willing to accept the DOJ sanctioned reallocation of industry capacity that AA/US thought they were going to accomplish with WN and B6 as part of their merger.

It's happening, though, and the best you can do is call it drivel.

 

[Kev3188]

That's just it; DL expects the world will stop because it wants it to.

WT is merely a product of that finishing school.

 

[FWAAA]

WN operates 200 flights a day out of DAL, and won't be able to increase that substantially because they're already maxed out on gates.

DFW has a total of about 950 flights a day, and AA represents 770 of those.

Combined market = 1150 flights, of which AA operates 67%, and WN operates 17%.

You can go ahead and adjust for seat gauge, but that's just going to skew the data further.

AA's still 4x larger than WN in the Dallas/Fort Worth market, and always will be.

Not quite 200 at DAL.  According to WN, it currently flies 129 daily flights from DAL from its 15 gates.    With the end of the Wright Amendment, I predict that WN will operate about 150-160 daily flights from its 16 gates.   Right now,  WN operates 159 flights from 19 gates at HOU.    I don't see WN operating anywhere near 200 daily flights.  
 

AA runs a hub operation with an average of 2/3 of passengers that board AA planes at DFW simply passing thru.

WN runs a largely point to point operation and uses aircraft that are far larger than the RJs which make up several hundred of those flights which you want to count.

It's a shame that someone who claims to know as much as you do about the industry is so willing to stick your foot in your mouth to prove someone wrong and then confirm how ignorant you really are about the industry.
 

I've got an article here from a Jerry Orr lovefest that says that AA has 85% of the DFW passengers and that about 58% of the total DFW passengers are connecting.    For comparison,  DL has 78% of the ATL market and about 68% of the total ATL passengers are connecting traffic.   If I can find it online I'll post a link.
 
Today,  AA flies 500 mainline flights at DFW and almost 300 regional flights (between Eagle and Skywest and ExpressJet).   My guess is that those 500 AA mainline flights have an average seat count at least as high or higher than the WN 143-seat 737s.   
 
About that bolded portion:   Looks like "taking the high road" wasn't part of your educational experience.    

 

[eolesen]

My bad on not explaining the 200.....  As part of my day job, we built a model to estimate the most they could get from their DAL facility.
 
Assuming 1 flight per hour with hourly banks between 0700 and 2200, WN might be able to squeeze out 15 departures per gate.  Our model held back 1.5 gates as a firebreak for dealing with disruptions, bringing it down to 202 flights per day.
 
 
 
Assuming a 42% local mix for AA at DFW, and an average 140 seats per departure, AA is enplaning just under 30,000 locals a day.
 
And that's not including Eagle.  They add another 5,000 or so locals, depending on how you want to calculate their seat mix.
 
That's about 18,000 more local enplanements per day than what WN offers in total (somewhere around (17,500).  And WN also has flow traffic at DAL, but hey, let's give WT the benefit of the doubt...
 
Last math book I read, 35,000 is more than double 17,500.
 
The underlying point is that WT repeatedly claims is that AA risks losing more local market share to WN when the perimeter falls.
 
I doubt it, and have always doubted it.  Go check the archives dating back to when the legislative debate was underway on the last challenges to Wright.
 
Operationally, they could follow the model we came up with, but it has a lot of risks to it.  They tend to run a more conservative operation, and I'm not sure environmentally, the neighbors would put up with a bunch of departures at DAL after 2100.
 
The only logical way WN adds flights beyond the perimeter at DAL is to reduce flying to other destinations inside the current Wright perimeter.  
 
Thus, while it won't be a zero sum game to drop a flight to LBB or AMA and fly to LAX, but it's also not going to stimulate a whole lot more traffic, either.
 
WT's free to try and provide some science and math to disprove that if he wishes.  I suspect it will be just more smoke, though.

 

[WorldTraveler]

You can't seem to grasp the concept and apparently neither E can that the number of passenger boardings an airport and/or the number of flights that carrier operates have absolutely nothing to do with the share of the local market that any carrier has in that market.

The simple fact is that in the COMBINED DAL/DFW market to airports/markets which WN can also serve from DAL, WN is overwhelming the DOMINANT carrier in the local market and they do so at fares that are comparable to or higher than what AA gets in the same market.

I have been telling you for months that the end of the Wright Amendment had the potential to significantly affect AA's ability to compete from DFW because WN already has demonstrated that it is the carrier of preference for airline passengers between N. Texas and the cities that WN can serve. As the list of those cities grows dramatically with the fall of the WA, WN is going to use every flight that it can push thru Love Field to get the maximum number of local passengers on it and weaken AA's position at DFW.

You can babble all you want about taking the high road but you and a cast of others have repeatedly tried to defame me and argue that I don't know what I am talking about. The simple fact is that I have a crystal clear understanding of the dynamics of the airline industry. When you and the same people who want to stop arguing about how much you know and how wrong I am and start countering with the facts that you have been repeatedly been told are the basis of how the market works, then we can start having a civil discussion again.

IN the meantime, the entire AA-US merger, the settlement agreement, and the Wright Amendment and AA and WN's decade long ideas that they could each have a separate airport to dominant to the exclusion of others in the marketplace is at stake.

It doesn't matter what you think about DL's demands. What matters is that DL was willing to play along as long as it could compete in the market, and it has done so very effectively against both AA and WN. Now that the backroom settlement agreement between the DOJ, AA/US, and WN is being challenged, DL is going to push the issue as high and as long as it needs to in order to ensure that DL has the right to compete against both carriers and anyone else on the terms that are established by law.

 

[WorldTraveler]

As for the number of local passengers per flight, it is very easy to calculate from DOT and schedule data.

In June 2013, AA offered just over 85K seats per day on 782 flights/day from DFW. If we include only cites within the US since that is what is allowed under the WA as we know it, AA offers 75K seat per day on 712 flights.
AA carried 21,000 local DFW passengers per day from DFW. Using the domestic limitation that matches the new Wright restrictions, AA carries just under 19,000 passengers per day.
AA’s average aircraft size is less than 110 seats/flight for its entire DFW operation.
Despite the massive size of AA’s operation, AA only carries 27 LOCAL DFW passengers per flight to all destinations. If we again apply the Wright restrictions, AA carries 26 LOCAL DFW passengers per flight.

In contrast, using the same formulae, WN carries 47 local DAL passengers on each of its 120 flights/day which have an average seat size of 135 seats/flight.

As much as you want to believe otherwise, AA’s massive DFW operation exists largely for the benefit of connecting passengers.

Then consider that WN’s Love Field operation is restricted in the number of cities it can serve and that easily optimize their DAL operation to the local passenger in the markets they will be able to serve and it becomes very apparent that WN does very much have the capacity to use the relatively few flights/day it will be able to operate relative to AA’s DFW operation to target the top 20 markets from the Metroplex and put in more than enough capacity to compete effectively for half or more of the combined local market, just as it has done in every other city it has been able to serve from DAL.

As much as you want to believe otherwise, WN has enormous ability to put a world of hurt on AA’s DFW, which is without a doubt the most profitable part of American Airlines.

Add in that DL is not about to be told it must leave DAL so that WN can have a monopoly not only at DAL but also to have the near exclusive right to bid on slots at DCA and LGA and the calculations that AA, US, and WN made about the merger look a whole lot different.
Given that DL intends to exercise the same right to serve Love Field that it uses at MDW, an airport that WN dominates but that DL serves even though other carriers do not, and that DL intends to fly to its largest hubs plus LGA and LAX which are among the top markets from DFW, and things get really complicated.

I am sorry if you are finally putting all of this together and I am the one to have to tell you but this is exactly what has been at play during the entire DOJ lawsuit and to which I have been referencing for months on here, at the very time that you and others have using every possible means to try to denigrate and discredit me.

The stakes are enormous. DL is not about to allow the DOJ to reregulate the industry and stop DL’s very successful ability to compete in the domestic market.
And AA/US’ thoughts of grandeur about what they would be as a result of the merger and WN’s ideas that they would dominate Love Field are looking more than a little disconnected with reality.