Will AA pursue Alaskan?

[WorldTraveler]

in the meantime, there hasn't been one post that shows what AA can do for AS that they haven't or couldn't have done.

AA can't even remain as #2 among 3 network carriers in the west even after a merger with a carrier that has a western US hub.

How are they possibly going to do anything that could help AS?

 

[robbedagain]

Nor what dl can do for AS

 

[700UW]

in the meantime, there hasn't been one post that shows what AA can do for AS that they haven't or couldn't have done.

AA can't even remain as #2 among 3 network carriers in the west even after a merger with a carrier that has a western US hub.

How are they possibly going to do anything that could help AS?

But yet the combined US/AA are #1 in the east, #1 in the midwest and #3 in the west, well 2 out of 3 isnt bad, and can you say the same about DL?
 
Look at page four:
 
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTQ2NTEwfENoaWxkSUQ9MjM4MDU0fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

 

[WorldTraveler]

Nor what dl can do for AS

 DL is the largest interline partner for AS, so, yes, DL can do more for them than AA.

but remember DL is supposed to be the bad guy in this scenario according to you.
 

But yet the combined US/AA are #1 in the east, #1 in the midwest and #3 in the west, well 2 out of 3 isnt bad, and can you say the same about DL?
 
Look at page four:
 
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTQ2NTEwfENoaWxkSUQ9MjM4MDU0fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

no, AA/US is not the #1 airline in the Midwest.

Texas is not part of the Midwest and AA wouldn't be the #1 airline in the central US without counting DFW.

you know who is #1 in the Midwest with their twin hubs that actually operate when the weather goes bad at ORD.

new runway at ORD, don't they have?

 

[Duke787]

I think the real question is, will AA just give up the west coast to delta or will aa merge or more likely bring Alaska airline into the oneworld alliance? I'm thinking the oneworld alliance, that way Alaska is stand alone with access to a huge network.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I don't think anyone proposes anyone is going to give up the west coast.

The issue really involves having a total west coast presence.

AA is banking on building out LAX including int'l but they are still #3 out of 3 legacy airlines in most other west coast cities.

DL and UA intend to hold onto their positions at LAX but they also will focus their largest int'l operations at other cities - SFO for UA and SEA for DL.

Even if AA bought AS, it likely wouldn't change the ability of AA to expand its int'l footprint. SEA is just not that large of a city to support two int'l hubs, SFO won't be available unless UA is practically dead, and PDX is too small although I supposed with enough feed it could work again.

Further, AA and AS don't really do that much for each other at LAX or SFO because SEA and PDX are the heart of AS' west coast network.

Even if AS decided they want to give up their current strategy of serving multiple carriers and not having an alliance, the chances are real high that they would deliver less passengers to AA than they do to other carriers now.

and, once again, AS and DL have long-term contractual requirements TO EACH OTHER which probably also have merger survivability clauses.

the chances of AS "settling down with one partner" is slim to nil.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Even if AS decided they want to give up their current strategy of serving multiple carriers and not having an alliance, the chances are real high that they would deliver less passengers to AA than they do to other carriers now.

and, once again, AS and DL have long-term contractual requirements TO EACH OTHER which probably also have merger survivability clauses.
 

Wow, what can I say?  Your posts are so predictable.  They all state that everything is futile.  AA, UA, AS, WN, nay, all airlines should just give up.  DL uber alles!

 

[WorldTraveler]

except that is what it says only if you want to believe it.

The US soccer team said "we believe" and they sent Portugal and Ghana home while the US advanced and then the US played an outstanding game against Belgium.

in case you forgot, the core question of this thread is whether AA can do something for AS.

the answer is still nothing more than what they can do now and certainly not within the context of a stronger contractual relationship between AS and DL that already exists.

AA doesn't have to give up. But they have to fight to hold onto what they have against "teams" that have a lot more experience and depth. that's what the US Soccer team did yesterday.

thankfully, there are people running American Airlines that understand that principle.

 

[bigjets]

The core question of this thread, is not what AA can do for AS, but will AA let DL take the northwest by either merging with or overpowering AS with a heavy footprint in SEA.

I think an AA AS merger would be more beneficial for AS, maybe not for the employees, but for stock holders and AS business travelers it surely will. I would expect quite a fight from DL though.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Unless AA wants to engage in a hostile takeover, AA is powerless to force AS to cooperate with AA when AS has already said that it wants to have a "shopping around" kind of relationship with multiple carriers and not one alliance.

And it still doesn't change that AS and DL have a long-term contractual relationship that neither side has shown any interest in terminating.

Unless someone shows otherwise, an AA-AS merger would likely result in AS paying penalties to DL to terminate the relationship or it would continue even with AA.

whether AA wins in the west or not isn't going to be decided by Alaska (note the lack of an N in the word) Airlines.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

And it still doesn't change that AS and DL have a long-term contractual relationship that neither side has shown any interest in terminating.

Unless someone shows otherwise, an AA-AS merger would likely result in AS paying penalties to DL to terminate the relationship or it would continue even with AA.
 

 
If -  and that's a long shot -  there is an AA-AS merger, would the DOJ then still allow the brand new bigger AA to codeshare with DL? I doubt it.

 

[WorldTraveler]

they don't have to. AS (or AA as its new owner) would just have to pay the contractual breakup fee.

btw, there are a couple reports out showing that UA and WN are the carriers that are losing share at SEA because of DL's expansion at SEA. So far, AS is holding onto its share but likely seeing its yields go down.

I'm sure there will be plenty of discussion in their earnings conference call since another group of DL markets is operating and more will start by the end of summer.

 

[LDVAviation]

they don't have to. AS (or AA as its new owner) would just have to pay the contractual breakup fee.

 
A contractual breakup fee in a domestic, codeshare arrangement?  Prove it.
 
(Over 2000 now.  Is that a record on this board? How can it not be?  LOL.)

 

[WorldTraveler]

read the transcripts of the earnings calls.

Alaska's mgmt. team specifically addressed it.

"Tom Vance - KUOW Radio
Well, what do you -- what would you say is keeping that partnership together at this point?


"Bradley Tilden

It limits to what we can talk. But we are in the midst of a long term agreement. We have a long term contract with Delta right now."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2166813-alaska-air-groups-ceo-discusses-q1-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=5&p=qanda&l=last

Note that this was the last question on their last earnings conference call and the last statement from AS mgmt. on that call.

Would you like to let us know what types of contracts you sign that don't have performance requirements or penalties for non-compliance?

there have been similar comments before including statements that both sides have performance requirements.

AS isn't going anywhere in its relationship with DL unless one or both sides either mutually agree or pay the other.

if you think AS is sticking with DL out of love, you are seriously mistaken.

anything else? LOL.

 

[MAH4546]

There is a contractual break-up fee, but the contract, IIRC, has less than two years to go. It's certainly not going to be renewed, and I absolutely expect AS and AA to become significantly closer. And AS joining oneWorld is not out of the question, because unlike Star and Sky, OW allows its carriers to pursue any and all relationships with non-alliance carriers. Alaska can join OW and continue all it's non-OW relationships like Korean Air and Emirates unchanged. 
 
AA is the largest airline in the Midwest, plain and simple.
 
And with 34 all-mainline gates at LAX by decade's end, nearly double what UA and DL will have, it will have a huge and unrivaled LAX hub operation.