Who Will Win?

[SWAFA30]

BTW, it's pronounced tur-shee-airy with the emphasis on the air.

JS pointed that out...Where were you guys when I was taking my SATs!

Do you honestly think that ATA is going to remain in the scheduled air service business? Particularly, in the light of the fact that the a/c lessor has already found a placement for ATA's a/c. The reason AWA withdrew from the bidding for MDW is that they had planned to take over the leases on ATAs 737s, but they are not available.

So? Who's getting the 737s? Suppose SWA takes the 738 which are too big for their operation and "allows" ATA to operate them on ATA routes? No facts, just supposin...

VirginUSA exists only on paper, and not really even there. Branson can't make a move until he either (1) finds a U.S. investor to put up the money and hold the majority of the stock or (2) get the law changed that forbids foreign majority ownership of a U.S. based airline.

OIC

The reason SWA is willing to "codeshare" with ATA is because SWA management knows that very soon there is going to be nothing to codeshare with. ATA will be gone and SWA will have control of MDW. It's a VERY smart move on SWA's part, but the courts and the city of Chicago may not go along with the plan.

[post="228847"][/post]​

Who knows what the judge and the city fathers will do or say. I'm wondering if there is any fine print in the SWA/ATA proposal that states that should ATA falter, all of their gates would go to SWA? If not, the fact still remains that if the deal goes through, SWA gets their 6 gates, and ATA evaporates, that still leaves 18 gates worth of choice and competition in MDW.

 

[SWAFA30]

Like I just said -- people going to Providence, Manchester, Baltimore, or Long Island.

[post="228850"][/post]​

Just looking at BWI-PVD alone, there are currently 12 non-stops per day. That's 1644 seats per day...one way. Assuming these flights mirror SWA's average load factor of around 65% that means around 985 passengers are traveling inbound BWI-PVD everyday. None of them are headed for Boston?

 

[JS]

Just looking at BWI-PVD alone, there are currently 12 non-stops per day. That's 1644 seats per day...one way. Assuming these flights mirror SWA's average load factor of around 65% that means around 985 passengers are traveling inbound BWI-PVD everyday. None of them are headed for Boston?

[post="228858"][/post]​

For BWI-BOS, there are 15 daily flights on AA and FL. DCA-PVD, 5 flights on US. For DCA-BOS, there are 32 flights on US, AA and DL. That is 52 flights in total for the three city pairs of the metro area not served by Southwest, a lot more than 12. What's worse is that BWI is a major hub for Southwest, which means the O&D component is less than 12 flights' worth.

I wouldn't doubt that of 985 people, a few are headed to Boston. But to suggest that a majority, or even a sizeable minority are headed to Boston, is wrong.

 

[SWAFA30]

For BWI-BOS, there are 15 daily flights on AA and FL. DCA-PVD, 5 flights on US. For DCA-BOS, there are 32 flights on US, AA and DL. That is 52 flights in total for the three city pairs of the metro area not served by Southwest, a lot more than 12. What's worse is that BWI is a major hub for Southwest, which means the O&D component is less than 12 flights' worth.

I wouldn't doubt that of 985 people, a few are headed to Boston. But to suggest that a majority, or even a sizeable minority are headed to Boston, is wrong.

[post="228861"][/post]​

Then it would seem SWA owes the good people of PVD a debt of gratitude...for they have indeed been good to them...very good to them. Whodathunkit?

 

[jimntx]

So? Who's getting the 737s? Suppose SWA takes the 738 which are too big for their operation and "allows" ATA to operate them on ATA routes? No facts, just supposin...

According to what I read of the AWA pull-out, the lessor is sending the a/c to some airline in Asia that is willing pay more for the a/c than any U.S. airline. They are not available to SW either.

Who knows what the judge and the city fathers will do or say.

[post="228853"][/post]​

The mayor of Chicago has gone on record as saying that he will not approve any airline taking over ATA's gates without also taking all of ATA's Chicago-based employees. It all depends upon how the gate leases are written. At some airports, the airline can buy/sell/trade gates as if they owned them. At others, if an airline fails to utilize its gates, they to revert to the airport authority.

Either way, the city of Chicago could tie up the deal in court for a long time. Remember being the owner of the physical gates makes the city of Chicago a secured creditor in the BK court--a standing that carries a lot of weight.

 

[funguy2]

Well, reports out today (which could be little more than media speculation) indicate that Southwest wants to "take control" of ATA, inject cash, and replace senior management. Kinda sounds like when Southwest acquired Muse Air, and ran it as TranStar (with DC-9's and MD-80's) for a couple of years... Then when TranStar was not a success the airline was liquidated, but Southwest just absorbed its facilities into its own, particularly at HOU where Muse Air has a new concourse under construction. Probably added a few gates at other key airports like DAL and LAX.

So, we have a precedent (Southwest has done this before) and a situation where Southwest is likely to end up with 33 (Southwest's 19 + ATA's 14) gates of 45... or 73% of the gate capacity. Should be interesting to see if City of Chicago will approve this. I think the BK judge will... its essentially a $150mil offer, ATA employees remain, ATA's MDW hub remains (which I feel is important because I don't think anyone believes Michelson's IND hub has much chance of success), as does ATA (for now). And, the world's premier LCC takes control of this airline, giving them a perceived good shot at reorganization. This seems like a slam dunk as far as the BK court is concerned.

Certainly with a reduced MDW hub, some of the 737-800s can still go to Asia. And I would expect capacity to shared markets to be rationalized (like Florida and LAX, and PHL)to allow some fleet shrinkage. City of Chicago could be the stickler... It will be interesting to watch.

 

[mga707]

Well, reports out today (which could be little more than media speculation) indicate that Southwest wants to "take control" of ATA, inject cash, and replace senior management. Kinda sounds like when Southwest acquired Muse Air, and ran it as TranStar (with DC-9's and MD-80's) for a couple of years... Then when TranStar was not a success the airline was liquidated, but Southwest just absorbed its facilities into its own, particularly at HOU where Muse Air has a new concourse under construction. Probably added a few gates at other key airports like DAL and LAX.

I posted a similar opinion over on the other thread a couple of days ago to no response. Figured everyone here was too young to remember way back to the mid-80s B).
Glad to see that someone else agrees. Back in '85 Herb didn't want someone else getting a chunk of WN's core operations at Love and Hobby. This time it seems they would like to prevent AirTran from doing the same at Midway.

I don't think that Muse was ever at T-1 at LAX. Back when WN bought them out in '85, the tenants at then-brand-new T-1 were WN, HP, PSA, and AirCal. Wasn't Muse down at T-3 with AS and TW? Can't remember...

 

[swflyer]

According to what I read of the AWA pull-out, the lessor is sending the a/c to some airline in Asia that is willing pay more for the a/c than any U.S. airline. They are not available to SW either.

Gary Kelly has recorded an employee news line saying SWA is NOT interested in ATA's -800's. Also, if the money from either offer is used to pay the leases on ATA's aircraft, they'd be current and not open to repossesion, right??

The mayor of Chicago has gone on record as saying that he will not approve any airline taking over ATA's gates without also taking all of ATA's Chicago-based employees. It all depends upon how the gate leases are written. At some airports, the airline can buy/sell/trade gates as if they owned them. At others, if an airline fails to utilize its gates, they to revert to the airport authority.

Either way, the city of Chicago could tie up the deal in court for a long time. Remember being the owner of the physical gates makes the city of Chicago a secured creditor in the BK court--a standing that carries a lot of weight.

[post="228876"][/post]​

Today's Chicago Tribune says something entirely different about Chicago's position.

Southwest's bid for ATA makes it Midway power
By Mark Skertic, Tribune staff reporter
December 15, 2004

Southwest Airlines' offer to rescue ATA Airlines from bankruptcy ultimately could give Southwest control of three of every four gates at Midway Airport, say sources familiar with the deal.

Southwest's $117 million bid for Indianapolis-based ATA is a combination of $40 million in cash, a $47 million loan and $30 million in equity in the restructured company.

Sources said Southwest would gain a 35 percent stake in ATA and control over who is named to top management.

Details of Southwest's offer, which was submitted Friday, have not been made public. But according to sources familiar with the deal, Southwest would take over six of Midway's gates and allow ATA to continue using the other eight.

In addition, Southwest wants ATA to downsize its fleet and reduce its labor costs by 15 percent to 20 percent.

And if ATA defaults on its loan, Southwest wants first right to all the gates at Midway that ATA controls, according to a source familiar with the bankruptcy talks under way this week in Indianapolis. Dallas-based Southwest now controls 19 of the 43 Midway gates.

Southwest and another low-cost airline, Orlando-based AirTran Airways, have made offers for ATA, which filed for Chapter 11 protection in October. This week, ATA attorneys have been meeting in closed-door sessions with those owed money by the airline and representatives of Southwest and AirTran.

ATA's representatives are scheduled to present the best offer for the airline to the bankruptcy court on Thursday.

On Tuesday, representatives of AirTran and Southwest declined to characterize this week's negotiations. Although both have made bids for ATA, they are allowed to modify their offers during the talks with ATA's lawyers.

AirTran's $90 million bid was presented in October, on the same day ATA filed for bankruptcy. In return it would receive the rights to all of ATA's gates at Midway, as well as landing rights at New York's LaGuardia and Washington's Reagan National Airports.

The AirTran offer would push ATA almost completely out of Chicago, though it would continue as a low-cost airline operating out of Indianapolis. AirTran would gain a major presence in the Midwest overnight.

Midway Airport gates are owned by the City of Chicago, which must approve any transfer of control. The city would not object to a plan that would give Southwest a part ownership of its next largest competitor at Midway, said Annette Martinez, city aviation spokeswoman.

Nor would the city argue against a plan that eventually could allow Southwest to assume control over all of the gates ATA occupies.

"At this point, if Southwest is writing that in their proposal, it's a way to protect their investment," Martinez said. "We don't see it as a way to go through the back door and take over every single gate there is at Midway Airport. It's simply a protection of their investment."

Southwest is the dominant carrier at Dallas' Love Field, but that has not hurt competition in the area, said Ray Neidl, an aviation analyst with Calyon Securities.

As in Dallas, prices in the Chicago aviation market are influenced by the presence of two large airports, he said.

Southwest, by most measures the most successful low-cost carrier in the nation, is an asset that the city is probably trying to protect, Neidl said.

"Do you want a strong, powerful Southwest," Neidl said, "or do you want competition between two at the risk of alienating Southwest?"
Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune

 

[WNrforlife]

I know ATA employees are glad to see someone else rather than AirTran make a bid.. But who will the judge favor?

[post="227913"][/post]​

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Southwest will win the bid. Southwest is eventually going to own the entire domestic market. The legacy carriers are just fooling themselves if they think they can pull out of the financial nosedive they are in.

 

[funguy2]

swflyer: As I posted in another thread... I don't believe Southwest has "no interest in acquring ATA", and I don't believe they are simply protecting their investment. Sorry. I don't buy it. They have a precedent for having done the exact same maneuver successfully.

mga707: You may be right about Muse never having been in T-1. I cannot recall. My recollection is that PSA and AirCal split T-1 when it opened, then after American acquired AirCal, Air Cal was absorbed into AA's T-4 and others were moved into T-1, including America West and Southwest. Naturally US Airways presence in T-1 is an outcome of their acquisition of PSA. I seem to recall that Braniff (Mk2 the MCI hub version) was also in T-1 for some time. Not sure who else, but I think there may have been a few others. Muse may have been in T-1, as Muse and AirCal had an interline connection arrangement for a very short time (kind of a precursor to code-share), but obviously neither of them made any money on it.

 

[swflyer]

swflyer: As I posted in another thread... I don't believe Southwest has "no interest in acquring ATA", and I don't believe they are simply protecting their investment. Sorry. I don't buy it. They have a precedent for having done the exact same maneuver successfully.

[post="229161"][/post]​

It'll certainly be interesting, can't wait for Thursday.

There's another topic with an article refuting SWA's desire to acquire.

US Aviation w/Dallas Morning News article

 

[johnny gearpin]

It'll certainly be interesting, can't wait for Thursday.

Does anyone know if the Bankruptcy proceedings are open to the public? I understand "Details of Southwest's offer, which was submitted Friday, have not been made public. But according to sources familiar with the deal...", but I figure that someone has to be there to record the outcome.

Being located in IND, I would like to attend a piece of history being made.

Best regards,

Johnny Gearpin

 

[Dizel8]

"Southwest is eventually going to own the entire domestic market".

That would be most unfortunate, IMHO, however, who knows!

 

[ngneer]

Like I just said -- people going to Providence, Manchester, Baltimore, or Long Island.

[post="228850"][/post]​

...and New Jersey.

Excerpted from an article from the Bergen Record:

At 6:30 p.m. Nov. 16, I returned to Long Island's Islip- MacArthur airport with a smile on my face, a semi-nasty case of sun poisoning and an overwhelming desire to get home, unpack and douse myself with aloe.

For this trip, it wasn't until AFTER I printed out my receipt that I realized I would drive from New Jersey to Long Island so that I could fly to Florida via Philadelphia. This is one of the hazards of booking your trip on a computer screen: You have to read EVERYTHING on the computer screen before clicking the button that says, "Yes, I have read everything on the computer screen."

Apparently, my two-hour layover in Philly - birthplace of Grace Kelly, liberty and cream cheese - was why my airfare was so cheap. ($149 round-trip.) I have no idea why this is the case, though, because each way costs the airline two planes, two tanks of fuel and two bags of pretzels. But far be it for me to question the complexities of modern aviation.

 

[WNjetdoc]

Unfortunate for you perhaps, .

"Southwest is eventually going to own the entire domestic market".

That would be most unfortunate, IMHO, however, who knows!

[post="229279"][/post]​