Which hub will close first, post-merger?

[FWAAA]

I'll eat my hat if the 321's stay at 102 seats for long after the merger is completed and Parker is running the show. He might not bring them all the way up to the 187 that Airways fleet is for some specific routes, but 102? Not a chance. Original seating config is 183, not sure how many are up to 187 yet but they are reconfiguring them as they come thru maint.

You may be right, but if Parker is the numbers wizard that everyone says he is, then he can read the DOT fare data and see that in 3Q2012, AA attracted an average fare of $485 each way on the JFK-LAX flights. To compare, US was able to attract an average fare of just $271 each way on its PHL-LAX flights.

I have less respect for Parker than most of you, but I think he'll follow the numbers. FWIW, I predicted that the days of 3-class transcons were over (UA is converting to 2-class) yet AA announced that its A321s would feature 3-classes.

Parker tried flying non-premium transcons between JFK and LAX more than a decade ago, and they failed miserably. Very low average fares. For all his faults, I don't think he'll repeat prior mistakes.

As far as coast to coast? Never had to make a fuel stop yet in one. With 183 on it you spend half the trip at FL 290 or 300 till you burn off fuel and get the weight down a bit though.

That's why I posited (jokingly) that the very low density would minimize any winter fuel stops.

My thoughts exactly. I can only imagine that 102 seats is assuming that AA will dominate the transcon market as in the "good old days" and will be able to command premium ticket prices for those flights. I doubt it.

Delta is placing lie-flat bed equipped 763s on some of its JFK-LAX flights in a couple of months to try to compete with AA's transcons. Anderson can see the high average fares that AA attracts and he figures that product improvements might help accomplish the goal. Once Virgin America runs out of cash and flames out, fares should increase and it's likely that AA will once again dominate the transcons, especially with the best hard product in the market.

Plus I don't see the 102 seats from a staffing standpoint. 2 seats does not justify another flights. Even on a transcon with more elaborate services/meals, you still have to pay for the "hard" help. It will be interesting to see how they staff those planes. 102 requires 3 f/as, but I don't see how you could get by with fewer than 6 if you are going to have 3 classes of service on a 5-6 hour flight.

I had guessed that the A321s would require seven FAs, two in First, three in Business and two in econ. Maybe six could handle it if one or two of the premium cabin FAs helped with the econ drinks/BOB while the premium cabin meals were warming up.

AA is replacing the 767-200 on the JFK-LAX and SFO routes, that is why the special subfleet of 10 A321s, they wont be changed, as those markets are lucrative and AA has contracts with the movie studios and maybe some networks.

Agree, but I haven't seen any announcements that there will be just 10 of the 3-class A321s. For most of the past decade, AA has flown 15 762s, although some of them are retiring right now. So maintaining the current schedule without any frequency increase would require 15 - my guess is that there will be about 20 of them.

 

[Keroseneuser]

You may be right, but if Parker is the numbers wizard that everyone says he is, then he can read the DOT fare data and see that in 3Q2012, AA attracted an average fare of $485 each way on the JFK-LAX flights. To compare, US was able to attract an average fare of just $271 each way on its PHL-LAX flights.

I have less respect for Parker than most of you, but I think he'll follow the numbers. FWIW, I predicted that the days of 3-class transcons were over (UA is converting to 2-class) yet AA announced that its A321s would feature 3-classes.

Parker tried flying non-premium transcons between JFK and LAX more than a decade ago, and they failed miserably. Very low average fares. For all his faults, I don't think he'll repeat prior mistakes.



That's why I posited (jokingly) that the very low density would minimize any winter fuel stops.



Delta is placing lie-flat bed equipped 763s on some of its JFK-LAX flights in a couple of months to try to compete with AA's transcons. Anderson can see the high average fares that AA attracts and he figures that product improvements might help accomplish the goal. Once Virgin America runs out of cash and flames out, fares should increase and it's likely that AA will once again dominate the transcons, especially with the best hard product in the market.



I had guessed that the A321s would require seven FAs, two in First, three in Business and two in econ. Maybe six could handle it if one or two of the premium cabin FAs helped with the econ drinks/BOB while the premium cabin meals were warming up.



Agree, but I haven't seen any announcements that there will be just 10 of the 3-class A321s. For most of the past decade, AA has flown 15 762s, although some of them are retiring right now. So maintaining the current schedule without any frequency increase would require 15 - my guess is that there will be about 20 of them.

The 321's run 4 F/A's in 183 and 187 seat configurations. Minimum required by FAR. You want to know what AA will look like in 5 years all you need to do is come ride on US now.

7 F/A's on a plane carrying 102 pax? Not a chance. Regardless of the service level, he will NOT put more employees on the bird than is necessary. You are talking about a mgmt. that is obsessed with cost reduction. Everything placed on board the plane is figured up in weight, cost etc. They know how much it costs to haul each pound of fuel in the tanks and bottles of water in the galley. Gone are the days of "toss a trashbag full of snacks in the galley and off you go" Each and every flight has a specific count of pretzel packs and drinks, etc etc. I don't think you really have an inkling of how he operates. Maybe one of our F/A's can chime in and fill you in on our "normal" snack and beverage load. Even on transcons it is very...umm..."thrifty"

 

[nycbusdriver]

The 321's run 4 F/A's in 183 and 187 seat configurations. Minimum required by FAR. You want to know what AA will look like in 5 years all you need to do is come ride on US now.

I was about to give that comment an: AMEN! But I think it is more realistic to say: If you want to know what AA will look like in 5 years all you need to do is come and ride on UA or DL.

 

[jimntx]

I just flew United DFW-EWR-IAH-DFW last week. (I have some frequent flyer miles from my Continental flying days when I lived in Houston. Now that they are United miles, they are going to expire if I don't use them.) Granted, I was in F/C, but I found their service comparable to AA. In fact, on a couple of issues, they are better. The IFE is very good. On the 767 from EWR to IAH, the IFE was exceptional--as were the lie flat seats. The screen for the IFE in F/C was bigger than the screen on a 17" laptop computer (or seemed to be). Plus, each F/C seat had its own screen--no drop downs, no bulkhead mounted screens.

 

[Keroseneuser]

I was about to give that comment an: AMEN! But I think it is more realistic to say: If you want to know what AA will look like in 5 years all you need to do is come and ride on UA or DL.

Have to agree with you here. I doubt you are seeing "extra" f/a's on anything other than atlantic and pacific crossings anywhere in the industry right now except AA. I cannot see Parker letting something like that continue for long. It goes against everything he has ever done in the past as a CEO. To him if its more than FAR, it is wasting money

Using FWAAA's numbers for average fares across the country AA would currently take in $49,470 per full 321 (102 seats)flight while US takes in $50,677 in fares per full flight(187 seats). But US does it with 3 less F/A's on board. Easy to see which way Doug is going to go on this one.

 

[700UW]

The fares on the Transcon A321 flights are not average fares, AA has contracts and commands a premium on those flights.

First Class on AA is $6,478, with 10 seats on an A321 in first class, thats $64,780

Business Class is $4,400.

Cheapest fare was $670.00

That is leaving April 10 and coming back on the 12th.

 

[dash8roa]

Explain how the international concourses and adjoining federal facilities in PHL (A-East and A-West) have "outgrown their infrastructure??

I was referring to the number of runways as it relates to the number of arrivals and departures. Many times a very long time is spent waiting to depart. The terminal is fine, however the number of open customs stations needs to be increased, very long lines that move ever so slowly.

 

[dash8roa]

I'll eat my hat if the 321's stay at 102 seats for long after the merger is completed and Parker is running the show. He might not bring them all the way up to the 187 that Airways fleet is for some specific routes, but 102? Not a chance. Original seating config is 183, not sure how many are up to 187 yet but they are reconfiguring them as they come thru maint.

As far as coast to coast? Never had to make a fuel stop yet in one. With 183 on it you spend half the trip at FL 290 or 300 till you burn off fuel and get the weight down a bit though.

At 102 seats, that's a waste of the aircraft's potential for earnings. While 183 seats is too tight, about 130 to 140 seats would give a more roomy feel along with extra seats to fill.

 

[FWAAA]

Have to agree with you here. I doubt you are seeing "extra" f/a's on anything other than atlantic and pacific crossings anywhere in the industry right now except AA. I cannot see Parker letting something like that continue for long. It goes against everything he has ever done in the past as a CEO. To him if its more than FAR, it is wasting money.

Like I said before, you guys may be correct (you probably are).

Using FWAAA's numbers for average fares across the country AA would currently take in $49,470 per full 321 (102 seats)flight while US takes in $50,677 in fares per full flight(187 seats). But US does it with 3 less F/A's on board. Easy to see which way Doug is going to go on this one.

Since the 3-class A321s don't go into service until the fourth quarter, we don't know what the average fares will be when the cheapest 66 passengers are left behind (AA's current 3-class 762s seat 168).

In the third quarter of 2012 (the latest numbers available from the DOT), AA's $485 average fare resulted in a potential maximum revenue per flight of $81,480. The US $271 average for LAX-PHL would result in a potential maximum revenue of just $50,677 as you pointed out. That extra $31,000 per flight pays for the extra FAs and the upgraded food and beverages. And then some.

Of course the fare data is for O&D only, and obviously, neither airline currently fills their transcons solely with O&D. A significant number of the AA passengers are connecting to/from Europe, S America, Australia and Asia. First and Business Class passengers arriving at LAX from Sydney continuing on to NYC are certainly worth a lot more than the $485 average domestic O&D fare that AA collects for the transcon flight. Likewise, it's probably safe to assume that US connects a fair portion of its LAX-PHL passengers to Europe and other domestic cities. Drilling into the DOT airfare data demonstrates that there simply aren't enough O&D passengers to completely soak up all the capacity flown by US or AA on those transcon flights. So of course there are plenty of connecting passengers as well.

I've predicted before that I don't think Parker is chomping at the bit to LCC'ify AA, but I may be completely wrong. He's bought the best-in-class seats for the A330s flown to Europe in hopes of competing with DL, UA and AA, and that's an encouraging sign. His departure from AA in 1991 coincided with the expansion of 3-class transcons at AA but I'm certain that the cheerleaders for the 3-class transcons within AA management will fully inform him of the what they see as the benefits of the upgraded service. Parker's fanbois drone on and on about what a financial wizard he is - that he's all about the numbers. Well, the numbers show that AA gets average fares between JFK and LAX that are nearly $500 each way. While there may be a domestic route or two where US gets similar average fares, there aren't very many.

Thanks to the very low pilot and FA pay since the merger in 2005, Parker has managed to report some profits, including the very impressive 2012 net income. With US pilots set to get an addtional $1.6 billion in compensation improvements over the next 6 years (according to USAPA), and with the US FAs set to get several hundred million dollars more over the same period, the new AA is not going to be a huge version of low-wage US Airways. It's going to be a larger version of slightly lower wage expense AA (slightly lower than before AA's Ch 11). As CEO of a much higher wage expense airline, Parker will finally be forced to compete for higher revenues, like in NYC, LAX, ORD and other places where low-wage US has shied away. At least that's my prediction.

But like I said, I may be wrong and you guys may be right. If so, you can bank on another Ch 11 filing.