What If.......CO + UA .."DO the deal" ?

[Hackman]

After years of letting the Pacific dwindle because of a lack of aircraft, NW Is on the verge of having the resources to begin overflying Japan.

The only thing Scab Air has the resources for is bankruptcy attorneys and upper managements bank accounts. I don't know what "resources" they can have when they lost billions in the last two quarters and they can't pay most of their creditors. I certainly hope that AA waits until Scab Air is in Chapter 7 to buy any assets, in which the Asia routes are about all that's worth anything,

 

[Nor'Easta]

The only thing AA would gain form NWA is the Asian connection. And since NWA's main money maker is Asia, AA would have to buy all of NWA, lock stock and barrel!

Don't forget NWA's AMS Hub! This would bring AA a stronger presence in Europe, as well! AA buys NWA and then closes our ORD hub and moves everything to DTW (brand new state of the art terminal and no overcrowding). Then AA would need to close STL and have hubs in DFW, MIA, DTW, AMS and NRT. I would think JFK would be a hub once the terminal is complete.

JMHO

 

[FWAAA]

[quote name='Nor'Easta' post='406540' date='Aug 14 2006, 11:53 AM']Don't forget NWA's AMS Hub! This would bring AA a stronger presence in Europe, as well! AA buys NWA and then closes our ORD hub and moves everything to DTW (brand new state of the art terminal and no overcrowding). Then AA would need to close STL and have hubs in DFW, MIA, DTW, AMS and NRT. I would think JFK would be a hub once the terminal is complete.[/quote]

So you'd give UA all the traffic at ORD and move to DTW? I'm glad you're not on the Board of Directors.

AMS? Anyone can fly there - it's open skies.

 

[flyhigh]

1) Gordon Bethune most like can't come back. I would be utterly amazed if he didn't have a non-compete in his "retirement" from CO. He left in a gentleman's agreement with David Bonderman.

2) I wouldn't call the legacy carriers out of the woods over one quarter of profit. Have they gotten better...YES, but nowhere near the edge of the forrest. There are still tremendous debt loads to deal with, especially for NW & DL who have yet to spell out a plan for covering the debt they "dumped" when they entered bankruptcy. If AA and DL were to tag team on a deal that involves the breakup of NW and does so in a ways that most benefits creditors...it would get done.

3) CO's "threatened" position in NYC? Their position is far from threatened. Delta has yet to display long term success in their Atlantic operation. Everything they have done was to lower costs at JFK. They weren't exactly far from the opposite decision. It came down to feeling like they couldn't give up on NYC...no tremendously sound financials of the past.

AA has the money to trump DL for NW's Asian routes, and likely the creditor relations as well. DL would still benefit significantly if they could dump CVG for DTW...

 

[Fly]

If CAL mgmt ran the combined UAL/CAL merger, how could that non-compete clause work?

Bethune has publicly stated that he'd like to run that show. It would be an interesting merger to watch.

 

[JFK777]

Black Bear,

An AA/NW merger leaves "unanswered questions" but only some have negative implications, merging labor would be messy but the NW people would surely retain their senority to Asia since NW ins't next to dead as TWA was. TWA labor can never fly a 777. AA could serve DTW to LHR since it is a LHR designated airline.

NW has a decent 744 fleet and A330 fleet. Their DC-9 are dogs but they dp have 787 on order. NRT is the jewel in NW portfolio and AA should jump at the opportunity to buy and not repeat the mistake 20 years ago when Pan AM just sold Asia to UA said sorry to Bob Crandall, Pan Am said he was unpleasent to deal with. NW deal with KLM also could provide a nice hub in Amsterdam, this arrangement though would probably end since NW is SKYTEAM and AA is ONEWORLD. Since KLM is owned by Air France I doubt AF would would want to upset its Delta SKYTEAM alliance.

 

[flyhigh]

...and Larry Kellner would just step back down to his old job? I think not. Besides, I'd rather Kellner as Bethune was a front man for a lot of people. Great on culture, etc, but not what they would need most...

 

[Oneflyer]

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
OK, jimntx, I hear what your saying !

BUT, if UA + CO "consummate" AND then DL make's the NW stockholders an offer that they can almost NOT refuse, what does AA do then ????????????????????
(Also keep in mind that NW(Initially) DOES'NT want to "dance" with anyone)

Someone mentioned a "3 way deal"...........FINE, But all "3" would be fighting over Asia.
THEN WHAT (AA) ??????????????

NH/BB's

The NW stockholders don't have much of a say in anything anymore.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

World Traveler;

"FLY" has called the "Fuzz" on you for STALKING Her !!

(almost) EVERY time she posts, YOU are (strangly),"Too close for comfort" !!!!!!!!!


A LOT of good response's, by a lot of people !!!!!!!!

I'm NOT so sure that the FEDS would be SO un-receptive to consolidations(plural), with all the multi $$$ Billions that have been lost in the Industry.

Jeez, just the thought of less Jet-A being consummed, alone could be attractive to congress !!

If UA/CO was reality, AA should NOT be resricted from trying to acquire the "missing link"(Asia). Now if AA and BA were a single "venture", AND then went after BIG RED, well that's a whole "nuther ball game".

The VERY second that a UA/CO "gets done", should activate a VERY HIGH DANGER ALERT of a certain carrier in a place refered to as ...."HOT-LANTA"


NH/BB's

 

[Fly]

:cop: :cop: :cop: :cop: :cop:

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I'd like to add this important FACT.

While we(on this AA board), debate what AA might do, with regard to possible mergers/acquisitions, which Include a lot of scenario's involving Big Red/NW, I in NO way want to see NW fall on any further Hard times !!!!

Along with my own family member, who is employeed there, there are also great folks here on US Aviation, along side with us, every day.

Unfortunately, the cold hard facts are, that this is a Cold Hard Business, that we are/where in !!


NH/BB's

 

[RowUnderDCA]

really.. it's not 'we' NHBB... it's really just you (singular).

 

[Wretched Wrench]

really.. it's not 'we' NHBB... it's really just you (singular).

HUH?????

I looked over his use of "we", and saw nothing worthy of that comment.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

really.. it's not 'we' NHBB... it's really just you (singular).

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

OH really, "Row",

True, "I" started this particuliar topic, but I'm sure EVEN YOU can see that others have joined the discussion, therefore making it "WE" ! :unsure: :unsure:


???????????????

NH/BB's

HUH?????

I looked over his use of "we", and saw nothing worthy of that comment.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

"Wrench",

Just to make sure, I checked RowUnderDCA's profile, and as expected, he/she spends 88% of his time on these boards on US/HP.

The ONLY way US/HP will ever get to Asia, is if the WIN a route in a "Cracker Jack Box"


NH/BB's

 

[AirwAr]

If the only value in purchasing NW is the Asian presence, then I think AA should definitely NOT buy.

JAL has been a long time AA ally and they are deepening that partnership by entering oneworld. I find it hard to believe that AA would make the risky investment in NW to gain a NRT hub when it can easily rely on the largest airline in the region with little to no risk.

To me, AA's Asia strategy would be (is) to over fly NRT and serve the Asia destinations directly from the US. I see from NW's route map that they fly to 3 destinations in China, 2 of which AA doesn't have rights to fly to. (I believe Hong Kong falls under different rules)
http://www.nwa.com/travel/trave/route/asia.shtml

My questions are: Other than the 2 destinations in China, what destinations in Asia is AA currently prohibited from serving? And of those destinations, which ones would AA really care to serve.

My take on this is that the Asia routes may be a crown jewel for NW, but just a lump of coal for AA.