Oh, I agree, "Option A" (restructure) is a long shot, while "Option B" (Yard Sale) is much more likely...
Such a situation has to exist to be able to force the severe concessions necessary not just to make Airways competitive, but hard to compete against if restructured. Nothing short of severe cost reductions will entice any creditor or investor to even think about a future Airways.
The only thing I AM sure of is that nothing like the status quo will exist in the near future. That is why I KNOW that there will no longer be a contract for any of the mainline unions anything like what they have in place today. The contracts will either be MDA-ized, or will not matter as the company will be dead.
But I have a strong feeling that management has decided that in this "high stakes poker game" that it is time either bet it all, or cash out.
Meaning that the idea will no longer be to come down and reach parity with the LCC's, rather to surpass them on both a cost and revenue basis. Such a situation has to exist if there is any hope to retain or gain creditor support now, and investment for re-emergance/growth later. Just matching jetBlue/AWA/ SWA will not open any purse strings.
And that is why restructuring is one reeeeeeeaal long shot in comparison to the near "sure thing" that liquidation is...
Because that would mean Management would basically have to get everything on their wish list, everything. Otherwise they would simply "cash out".
IMO, even with the challenge a dramatic restructuring would entail, I still think they are about to "play their hand", rather than fold and leave the table.
Because the payoff could be huge for them IF they pull it off... (and they would have already left the "game" by now if that was their "Plan A")
RSA will not sink another dime into THIS version of US Airways. But remember, this version of US Airways will no longer exist in the near future. If management is able to get everything they ask for, then it may well be the kind of airline that the RSA (or another investor) would pay for.
No one on here can dispute that the overall trend of Legacy carriers has been to shift domestic flying into "Express". Why then is it so hard to think that trend cannot continue up into the Airbuses? Afterall, if they can paint "Express" on the side of aircraft the size of the 'ol F-28 and F-100, it is not that much of a stretch to make the remainder of the domestic fleet work under the same rules. If I told you three years ago that F-100's (EMB-190) were about to be operated by Express, you might have shown the same disbelief, but it is a clear possibility now, right...?
One thing I thought of last night, could Virgin be the example Airways is going for (with US Airways "Mainline" only a widebody international carrier, while the remainder of narrowbodies are "Express"...)?
Well, theories aside, we all can be sure that things are about to get real messy in a short while. A "Shock and Awe" program (per se) on labor to both stun and cower them into submission. They are about to whack off the "dead branches" to allow the tree to grow again, or chop it all up for firewood.
Peace B)
