US AIR just may not want us.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11384664/1/us-airways-shares-up-44-ytd-ceo-says-merger-not-needed.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Oh Dougie wants to merge, and he may well get it, too. I think he is just being smart like any person in any potential buying situation and not tipping his hand too soon so as to raise his price. But, from his perspective, a merger with AA makes a lot of sense, and the combined airline's network would be substantially strengthened in several key areas. AA would instantly get a phenomenal hub in Charlotte that is one of only two effectively capable of serving the Atlantic Southeast, an amazing franchise at Washington Reagan, which is one of the most competitively-restricted and highest-yielding airports in the U.S. with tons of government/corporate traffic, a northeast hub in Philadelphia that while, true, is an absolutely operational and logistical mess, is really no appreciably worse than what United has at EWR or certainly no worse than what Delta will have split over JFK and LGA. PHX is a wild card - depending on where the combined hypothetical airline's costs ended up. Internationally, USAirways would strengthen and compliment AA's existing Europe network, build somewhat on AA's already-huge lead to Latin America and the Caribbean, and do absolutely nothing for Asia (although no merger would help there - AA is going to have to build it organically).
The fact that USAirways has reportedly begun looking to engagement with British Airways (IAG) implies that they want any hypothetical merger - if it is to happen - to be friendly, since there is no way BA would ever go along with a hostile takeover of AA that might harm BA's interests. And frankly, I would honestly not be surprised to see USAirways get the support of AA's own management team, too, Horton's comments last year about going it alone notwithstanding. The combination of AA, USAirways, IAG, Citibank, likely Boeing and Airbus, and possibly TPG all going in together as one unified front would be unstoppable. Delta, even if they thought they might get something out of the process, would have no chance. But, that being said, I don't think Delta really things they will get anything out of this bankruptcy, anyway - their management is far too smart for that. An AA-Delta merger would never pass regulatory muster, and thus Delta would have to break AA apart (and Delta only wants parts of AA, anyway), which virtually none of AMR's largest stakeholders and creditors (including the unions) are likely to go along with.