United States economy doomed …

[KCFlyer]

I know it is a "cry me a river" scenario, but you must understand that most of those i-bankers have lost their jobs in the past 9 months. No more 7 figures for those folks... more of them have likely lost their jobs this year that those in the airline industry.

Do you know how much easier it is to lose your job when your salary was even in the SIX figures (much less seven) than it is to lose your house when you are in the low to mid FIVE figures? And as 777 kind of implies - if you have been making hundreds of thousands in salary, and annual bonuses that often made the salary look petty - and you find yourself in undue hardship when you lose your job, you have no one to blame but yourself.

 

[Gilding the Lily]

Do you know how much easier it is to lose your job when your salary was even in the SIX figures (much less seven) than it is to lose your house when you are in the low to mid FIVE figures? And as 777 kind of implies - if you have been making hundreds of thousands in salary, and annual bonuses that often made the salary look petty - and you find yourself in undue hardship when you lose your job, you have no one to blame but yourself.

That is why is said it is a "cry me a river." I was just refuting your assertion that we bailed out the i-bankers; since hardly anyone from bear stearns kept their jobs, I don't think many of them see it the way you do. (As of May, it was estimated that more than 80,000 financial service workers lost jobs).

I do not disagree with your assetion that part of the reason that some of them may vote for McCain is due to potential continued tax breaks.

 

[777 fixer]

YOu know how "deregulation" has worked so well for the airlines? It's done the same thing for banks, brokerages and other lending institutions. Gramm's move basically abolished the Glass-Steagall act, which pretty much kept brokerages out of the banking business. When they dropped that, and "packaged" loans to brokerages, the temptation for the "quick buck" put a lot of unqualified people into loans they could not afford, once the "teaser rates" adjusted upwards. But...according to Phil, this recession is all in our heads.

There's a reason the airline deregulation analogy is a bad one. The airlines had no choice but to operate in a deregulated since it was mandated by Congress. Someone signing their name to a mortgage they could not afford did have a choice.

 

[777 fixer]

You're right. Super duper low airfares are "best for me", so my demand has YOUR company cutting jobs, wages, and benefits so that they can still sell me a seat for the price I demand. I don't care if you have to sell a car or move out of the house to live...what's best for ME is what the past 8 years have taught me. Now you can #### and moan all you want about the state of your industry, or the ineptitude of your management, but when it comes down to the brass tacks, you could always quit your job...nobody's holding a gun to your head. Just like nobody held a gun to the head of someone who signed a note a 3% mortgage on a house...but the broker glossed over the itty bitty fine print that said it would double or triple it's rate in 5 years.

What on earth are you talking about? Where have I #### and moaned about the state of my industry or the management of my company on this thread? Could you please show me because I'm coming up snake eyes on that one. Or for that matter on any other thread. If you had done some homework you would have known that I don't spend my time on US Aviation complaining about the things you mentioned like other people do.

And by the way, if someone signs their name to a mortgage and they are unaware that the rate is going to triple that means they're stupid.

 

[El Che]

You forgot to mention Y2k.

On a more serious note, I disagree with your conclusion of doom.

I agree that we are still in the early days of this financial crisis. At best, it is durable stagflation; at worst, it is a recession. But I think we are very far from a depression and, more importantly, very far from economic doom.

It is, however, kool-aid drinking at its best to believe that we will have a quick turnaround by the second half of 2008 as some analysts believe. The second half is practically here!

Something else that should be added to your list: the credit crunch. Yes, I know: it is old news. Not really though. The analysts have yet to incorporate the losses from high-yield bonds. This will bring another $150 billion or so to the loss, bringing the total net-worth loss of $1.1 trillion in assets.

Moreover, housing property values are down... by at least 10%. Since Americans will find it harder to use their house as the ATM, they cannot buy goods as often. Since consumer spending makes us the biggest chunk of GDP, that chuck of GDP will fall.

You must be Phil Gramm! What up Phil?
Yes its all in our minds. I suppose dollar devaluation is all in our minds too?
Market correction! That 's funny!
THE TITANIC IS NOT SINKING! Guess what? There's only twenty life boats, and you, like the rest of us don't rate to be on one.

 

[RDU Jetblast]

And by the way, if someone signs their name to a mortgage and they are unaware that the rate is going to triple that means they're stupid.

A lot of them WERE stupid, so with loose laws and greed, the stupid were taken advantage of.

Laws can be a burden but they are intended to protect as well.

I agree with being held accountable for placing your signature on the mortgage but anyone can sign their name, very few can understand everything they are signing and most can be sold something they don't need.

 

[freedom]

Phil Gramm is retarted .... either that or he's the economic advisor on angel dust ...


The united states economy is in trouble , i'm reading about the MAC's ... not looking so good there .... but rest assured , while our economy may collapse our government will not .

Our lives will go on after money ends .

 

[novaqt]

phil so and so , i don't know who he is... while i'm not a democrat , nor republican , i'm leaning for obama because he might be closer to getting us on the right track ... ...

europe is starting to weaken ....


Oil is crushing jobs here at home ... why just look at the us airways boards , more and more layoff's are appearing as if out of thin air ...

Our industry is the first one that's going to take the hit ...

I suggest you move out of Arizona and your doom and gloom prophesy. Things are not as bad as you are making it. Here on the East Coast real estate is selling and close in to the city, the prices have not fallen as much as further out. If you are located near a subway system, your property will sell. If things are as bad as you say they are in Arizona, then move to a place where there is more hustle and bustle. India and China's government subsidies on oil are being removed that will slow down things there. We are a global economy now and are becoming dependent on each others economies staying solvent. I agree we have a while of this so-called recession in oil and industries effected by them, but when the banking industry shakeout is over, the dollar will come back and oil goes down. It behooves everyone to stay informed. Life still goes on. Things are not going to be as bad as you think they will. There are too many people and governments dependent on us. So drink my kool aid and have faith!!!

I suspect the oil market is being driven by speculators who are George Soros and middle eastern investors, i.e. Saudia Arabia and the go green crowd (Al Gore). Soros's money is funding Obama. Soros and Moveon.org progressives/marxists was to win this election and bring Socialism/Marxism here. It didn't work in Russia and it will not work here. The problems begin and end with our politicians who are more concerned with wanting to win elections and keeping their jobs than they are in doing the job Americans voted them in office for. American are basically mentally lazy and do not want to stay informed. The major media is already a lost cause. The internet is full of whinner and gosspi mongers. You have to become knowledgeable to sort through all the garbage being spewed on the net. A lot of these netizens are kids and teenagers who know very little except YouTube and Facebook and how to hack into government and business computers.

 

[freedom]

I AM informed … well informed … at work I have nothing but time on my hands to read the news , be it the financial times ,the wall street journal etc… all the major business publications are sounding the alarm for dire straights ahead . my friends in the business sector are basically having the same conversation that I’m having with you now ..i get emails from them each day the dow drops by 200 points … this morning I was woken up around 8:30 to a text explaining to me the situation with the mac’s …. That’s not how I really want to start off my morning .

Your right about there being too many other governments and economies that depend on our country , you could say that we’re the linchpin to the global economy … and it’s about to fall out .


I’ve been running scenarios with my close friend on what could be done to revitalize the us economy , as yet we don’t have any viable solutions … right now I’m just going to hope the price of oil drops like a rock and even at that , it maybe too late … if one of the mac’s get’s taken out it’s game over ….


Remain calm ….

 

[KCFlyer]

What on earth are you talking about? Where have I #### and moaned about the state of my industry or the management of my company on this thread? Could you please show me because I'm coming up snake eyes on that one. Or for that matter on any other thread. If you had done some homework you would have known that I don't spend my time on US Aviation complaining about the things you mentioned like other people do.

And by the way, if someone signs their name to a mortgage and they are unaware that the rate is going to triple that means they're stupid.

Is deregulation a good thing for airlines? If not, then explain how deregulating the financial industry is a good thing for them.

 

[Gilding the Lily]

I’ve been running scenarios with my close friend on what could be done to revitalize the us economy , as yet we don’t have any viable solutions … right now I’m just going to hope the price of oil drops like a rock and even at that , it maybe too late … if one of the mac’s get’s taken out it’s game over ….


Remain calm ….

Yeah, the Mae/Mac issue is significantly more important than a Bears Stearns issue. It is VERY unlikely that one can "get taken out," however. Due to the fact that Mae/Mac is often the group that allows average joes to own homes, despite the lack of unanimity the gov't, in my opinion, would never allow it to be "taken out." Nonetheless, the shares of Mae/Mac are likely wothless at this point. The question becomes then: what are the ramifications of a Mae/Mac rescue, if one were to occur?

 

[freedom]

Yeah, the Mae/Mac issue is significantly more important than a Bears Stearns issue. It is VERY unlikely that one can "get taken out," however. Due to the fact that Mae/Mac is often the group that allows average joes to own homes, despite the lack of unanimity the gov't, in my opinion, would never allow it to be "taken out." Nonetheless, the shares of Mae/Mac are likely wothless at this point. The question becomes then: what are the ramifications of a Mae/Mac rescue, if one were to occur?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/11/news/econo...sion=2008071110


the article talks about the ramifications .... it ain't pretty . Think great depression 2 .

EDIT: my bad ,this is the link i was refering too ..

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/09/news/compa...sion=2008071112

 

[Gilding the Lily]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/11/news/econo...sion=2008071110


the article talks about the ramifications .... it ain't pretty . Think great depression 2 .

EDIT: my bad ,this is the link i was refering too ..

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/09/news/compa...sion=2008071112

Thank you for the new link; this makes more sense and is more in-depth. I read that one yesterday too. I guess the U.S. doesn't have as big of a problem with sovereign wealth funds anymore... seeing that we may essentially serve as one.

 

[novaqt]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/11/news/econo...sion=2008071110


the article talks about the ramifications .... it ain't pretty . Think great depression 2 .

EDIT: my bad ,this is the link i was refering too ..

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/09/news/compa...sion=2008071112

Buried in the above article is the probable answer:

"More likely, the Treasury Department or the Federal Reserve would come in and provide a liquidity backstop, in the form of a loan or guarantee to bondholders that they will be paid. Fannie and Freddie could even do a preferred stock deal with the government, much like the deal forged by Citigroup with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority."

Dubai, U.E. is investing pretty heavily in our country. They just bought the Crysler Building in New York. Dubai, U.E. is expected to become a major global financial center and a lot of our corporations have already moved offices there. I suspect some form of financial bailout will come from there. Think outsourcing of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.

 

[Veritas]

John McCain:

There is no one in America that is more respected on the issue of economics than Senator Phil Gramm. So I'm honored you are here, Phil.

Former Senator Phil Gramm:

You've heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession, despite all the bad news out there US economic growth continues at a rate of approximately 1 percent despite all the publicity over losing jobs to India, China, illegal immigration, housing and credit problems and record oil prices. We may have a recession; we haven't had one yet.

We have sort of become a nation of whiners. You just hear this constant whining, complaining about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline despite a major export boom that is the primary reason that growth continues in the economy.

We've never been more dominant; we've never had more natural advantages than we have today. We have benefited greatly from the globalization of the economy in the last 30 years.

The constant drubbing of the media on the economy's problems is one reason people have lost confidence.

Misery sells newspapers. Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper every day.