Ual Lobby‘s For Industry Consolidation

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Cosmo:

Cosmo asked: "Where precisely are the efficiencies and economies of scale that you claim US Airways would bring to a merger with United that United couldn't get just as easily on its own? Some specifics this time to support your argument would be much appreciated."

Facility integration, joint purchasing, joint advertising, elimination of duplicate processes like Investor Relations, Consumer Affairs, Payroll, and Crew Scheduling, Human Resources, and management positions, etc. Other functions such as Dispatch, Training, and Maintenance Operations could be combined, to increase efficiency and processes.

Consolidate office space, for example Reservations. US Airways has rejected the lease for its Pittsburgh Greentree facility and this facility could be closed and these positions be transferred to Winston-Salem or a United facility, which would lower United's lease expense.

In regard to Dispatch, just prior to the last merger announcement, United expanded its Operations Dispatch facility and now a large portion is unused. US Airways has rejected its Dispatch facility as part of the Pittsburgh hub negotiations. If the companies merge, it would be required for Dispatch to combine and United has already prepared for this major integration.

In regard to facility reduction, we just saw that occur in Seattle. On October 1 United rejected two gates in the North Satellite Terminal. US Airways then moved from the South Satellite Terminal and took custody of United's gates N10 and N11. The initial benefit is that United lowered its Seattle lease expense and the business partners are now collocated, which is good for the code share customer experience.

From management's view, if the companies merge, the Seattle airport consolidation could increase joint worker productivity, which would drive down labor expense and probably increase furloughs.

In addition, with the two companies have now aligned their Seattle operations and have prepared this station's facilities for a corporate combination. I understand similar plans are being developed between the two companies facilities Departments who are working with the airport authorities in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Denver. For example, after a new agreement is reached in Denver, US Airways may move from Concourse C to Concourse B.

This would occur through the system and save millions and millions of dollars. Another example would be LaGuardia. As part of the AMR carve out for the last merger attempt, United was going to sell its five gates in Concourse C and move to US Airways terminal, which has about 20 gates (express now uses many of the gates throughout the day). In this case, the combined business entity would lower its unit costs by United rejecting its LaGuardia gate and facility lease agreements through the bankruptcy process and the company would improve worker productivity.

There are probably about 200 airports throughout the combined route network where this would occur, which would drive down the combined business enterprise’s unit costs dramatically.

In addition, I have received reports from knowledgeable people the reason US Airways has extended its Pittsburgh hub negotiations is that the hub and its facilities are being held hostage to United's exit financing and plan of reorganization (POR). Once more is know about United's POR, then US Airways will get serious about its negotiations and hammer out a deal. In my opinion, if the ACAA lower its debt service and lease expense, we could see such things as a rejection of Training, Reservations, hangar (a month-to-month agreement could be included), and RIDC leases. However, the airline would keep the airport gates and received capital improvements to have RJ jetways replace mainline jetways on Concourse A.

In regard to labor, many duplicate management positions would be eliminated, as well as some line employee positions, due to increased productivity. Is this good for labor, not the people affected, but it would improve productivity and drive down unit costs and labor expense.

Cosmo, there are many, many more examples of economies of scale that would drive down CASM that is too high, even after all of the cuts by both companies, but I believe you get the idea from my examples.

Finally, you must admit it's interesting that just last week both US Airways and United had management publicly speak to the benefits of consolidation. Was that coincidental or purposely timed by the business partners?

From your company, Jeffrey Stanley, manager of economic analysis and regulatory affairs at United said in a prepared speech last Friday, "If things stay the way the are now, there will be several Chapter 7 (bankruptcy liquidations) down the road, and that's not good for anyone. The most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry," he said.

Cosmo, United's economist (not Chip Munn) publicly said, "The most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry." I believe that should hold some merit in this discussion, when your company says the most feasable solution is consolidation.

In my opinion, if the companies merge, we will not know for about 4 to 6 months because I understand Bronner is not willing to provide United with exit financing United completes its in-court restructuring and successfully overcomes its major obstacles and US Airways stabilizes.

Regards,

Chip
 
Chip Munn said:
I believe we are all a little tired of this debate and I am willing to suspend the discussion until and if there is more relevant news.
Truer words were never spoken. You betcha we're tired of it! You repeat the same things over and over and over again as though the information is fresh, new and undiscovered. However, it is always the same information, the same quotes, the same manipulation of data and undisclosed sources. Please, be a man of your word....suspend this craziness for a while, give us all some peace!
 
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Lark:

If you need space than why read it. Just do not click onto the thread. It's your choice, not mine.

Regards,

Chip
 
Chip Munn said:
Lark:

If you need space than why read it. Just do not click onto the thread. It's your choice, not mine.

Regards,

Chip
Just curious, Chip, are you stating here that you are not a man of your word? This is not about space, however, it is about opening a topic and reading something fresh and new.

However, most times I've discovered that it is purely repetitive regurgitation of information ala Chip.

Thanks!

Lark
 
Chip Munn said:
Regardless, I believe we are all a little tired of this debate and I am willing to suspend the discussion until and if there is more relevant news. Will a deal occur? Maybe, maybe not, but it's being discussed.

Regards,

Chip
Well Chip, here is some relevant news...

According to Reuters, UAL has identified potential exit lenders. Specifically Citicorp and J.P. Morgan Chase.

No where in the article does it say anything about RSA or TPG. In fact, as I said before, UAL is not interested in equity sponsors such as them.

Chip You have been saying for many months that UA can not obtain exit financing and will have to sell assets in order to emerge... My response to you was that just because there has been no public statement, doesn't mean UA doesn't have potential financing set up... Your response has been to quote people like Duane Worthe and your secret unnamed sources, and to accuse us of shooting the messenger... Now UAL has announced potential lenders that don't include the likes of an equity sponsor (loan shark) like RSA...

Any comments????????????

You have also been repeating over and over again that UA has major hurdles that in your opinion will not be easily resoved and will cause UA to have to sell assets to USAir and abandon IAD. My response has been that while UA has some big hurdles left to clear, they are managable and there is a high probability they will be resolved successfully.

This week UA has reached a deal in Denver that will save many Millions of dollars per year in lease expenses in DEN and extends until the year 2025!

Tilton was also quoted in company news by Steve Forte as saying that UA will not retreat from IAD and will continue it's current contract with ACA for now. He also said there are other alternatives which include other regional affiliates, and covering some service with mainline, and regardless of how the ACA issue is resolved UA will stay put in IAD.

Steve Forte also said that UA's CASM is stabilizing at a level in line with Frontier and slightly higher than SWA.

It now looks like there will be some type of legislative relief to pension funding rules which will help resolve UA's pension liabilities.

UA's LCO is moving along with mostly favorable response to the TED advertising campaign. By the way, the LCO is part of the requirement of the ATSB, which proves that UA is working closely with them to comply with their criteria.

In conclusion, UA has many positive things happening that contradict your neverending speculations, and show that UA's bankruptcy restructuring is on track and UA will emerge in the spring of 2004.

I am interested in your comments to the information above, especially the news that UA has identified potential exit financers.

767jetz
 
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767jetz:

767jetz said: “According to Reuters, UAL has identified potential exit lenders. Specifically Citicorp and J.P. Morgan Chase.â€

Chip answers: “767jetz, Reuters said, “United Airlines on Monday said it has approached both Citicorp and J.P. Morgan Chase to act as potential lenders for its eventual exit from bankruptcy protection. UAL said in court documents it has decided it was "prudent" to pursue exit financing guaranteed by the Air Transportation Stabilization Board.â€

767jetz, United’s comments were in regard to the guaranteed portion of the loan guarantee, which is not all of the equity required to emerge. The loan guarantee will consist of $1.8 billion guaranteed of a $2 billion loan, with the company required to obtain $200 million of non-guaranteed “at risk†money. This money will be used to repay up to $1.5 billion in DIP financing. True exit financing is what RSA provided to US Airways and Air Canada’s board just approved with Victor Li. Li will inject C$650 million ($495 million) in equity in exchange for a 31 percent stake in the company when its restructuring is completed, which is called the equity plan sponsor (of the total exit financing).

Here's the link to the Air Canada equity plan sponsor (or equity investor) portion of the exit financing, which is what David Bronner did with US Airways and he could do with United and merge our two companies. Here's the link since it appears you missed the story.

Air Canada Picks Li as Equity Investor

With all the time you spend on the US Airways board, I’m surprised you do not understand this point. Then again, maybe I’m not.

It is my understanding RSA’s David Bronner is willing to provide United with the cash in exchange for equity to merge US Airways and United together, provided United resolves a number of issues, including its underfunded pension obligations, the outstanding municipal bond litigation at San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, and with the Port Authority of NY and NJ, the EETC aircraft lease problems (where reports indicate RSA is involved in the negotiations) and the Dulles/ACA/Mesa problem.

767jetz: “You have been saying for many months that UA can not obtain exit financing and will have to sell assets in order to emerge... My response to you was that just because there has been no public statement, doesn't mean UA doesn't have potential financing set up... Your response has been to quote people like Duane Worthe and your secret unnamed sources, and to accuse us of shooting the messenger... Now UAL has announced potential lenders that don't include the likes of an equity sponsor (loan shark) like RSA.â€

Chip comments: Again, the comments by United are to solicit support for a loan guaranteed by the ATSB, which is part of the required exit financing. Again, I’m surprised you do not know this. In regard to selling assets, that was if the company could not find an equity plan sponsor as part of the total exit-financing package.

However, with the apparent move to merge, United could elect to not sell assets and instead sell a stake in the company like US Airways, TWA, and Air Canada have done. If it’s more than 50% to an investor like RSA, then a merger could occur.

If you remember, at the start of this thread I said the UCT strategy has shifted because with the LCC expansion exceeding projections, the business partners seem to have shifted a a traditional merger versus a fragmentation/asset sale. If you remember, in a speech, Stanley, manager of economic analysis and regulatory affairs at United said, "If things stay the way the are now, there will be several Chapter 7 (bankruptcy liquidations) down the road, and that's not good for anyone," he said. The most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry, he said.

767jetz said; “In conclusion, UA has many positive things happening that contradict your neverending speculations, and show that UA's bankruptcy restructuring is on track and UA will emerge in the spring of 2004.â€

Chip comments: 767jetz, I believe I have repeatedly said United would emerge from bankruptcy and for it to do so it must overcome all of the obstacles you have stated. The issue has been that the parties have discussed a fragmentation of United since the winter of 2002, but events have changed. Both United and US Airways executives now believe the only way to lower unit costs enough is to merge to create economies of scale and the significant increase in incremental revenue.

Reports indicate provided United can successfully emerge and obtain a loan guarantee to pay back the DIP financing and US Airways stabilizes its finances, Bronner has indicated he would become United’s equity plan sponsor, to complete the company’s exit financing, just like Li did with Air Canada yesterday, and then merge US Airways and United together.

767jetz, considering there are a significant number of posts in this thread and that you post more comments on the US Airways board than the United board, I’m surprised you do not understand the bankruptcy terms and process.

767jetz said: "In conclusion, UA has many positive things happening that contradict your neverending speculations, and show that UA's bankruptcy restructuring is on track and UA will emerge in the spring of 2004."

Chip comments: I agree there has been some positive news regarding United's in-court restructuring, but didn't I say I believed the company would emerge from court protection? Furthermore, my information has not be "neverending speculation", but instead information from "informed sources". What's important here is that due to changing market conditions (and that was the point of starting this thread) the corporate combination strategy seems to have changed from the UCT/ICT to a true merger, where a United executive recently said, "If things stay the way the are now, there will be several Chapter 7 (bankruptcy liquidations) down the road, and that's not good for anyone," he said. The most feasible solution to the situation is consolidation in the domestic airline industry."

Regards,

Chip

;)
 
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767jetz:

I just thought of something, your comments have nothing to do with this thread and are more of "I told you so", but the issue is really two fold: I have repeatedly said United would emerge, therefore, the company must have this type of news and the corporate combination strategy has changed, which also requires this type of news.

Regards,

Chip
 
Chip Munn said:
767jetz:

I just thought of something, your comments have nothing to do with this thread and are more of "I told you so", but the issue is really two fold: I said United would emerge, therefore, the company must have this type of news to emerge and the corporate combination strategy has changed, which also requires this type of news.

Regards,

Chip
you know for anything anywhere near to what you indicate could happen between U and UAL...there has to be one heck of a lot of baggage sold off to achieve a leaner meaner machine to merge into one.UAL is so big it befuddles the imagination,and to try and consolidate into one entity...it just is bewildering.
 
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Dell:

It might be bewildering, but these two dance partners have been trying to merge for years and it appears they are going to try and do it again.

Here's an interesting twist. I heard one report today from a source in CCY that the merger could be like ValuJet and AirTran. Where ValuJet bought AirTran and changed its name to the airline it acquired, Bronner may do the same thing.

Because of United's market identity, Bronner could acquire United and merge it into US Airways with US Airways the survivor, keep the US Airways paint scheme, and change the name of the combined business entity to United.

I do not know if it's true, but this type of deal has happened before.

Regards,

Chip
 
Chip Munn said:
Both United and US Airways executives now believe the only way to lower unit costs enough is to merge to create economies of scale and the significant increase in incremental revenue.
Chip,
you would only reap the benefits of economies of scale if you indeed eliminate any overlap. As you said, they could integrate crew scheduling to one entity, res, etc. But, do you really think that will happen? I tend to doubt it. It sounds good in theorty, but in practice, it is very hard to eliminate things. If U and UAL merge, there will certainly be some elimination of airplanes and routes. A company can only shrink it's way to profitability if it eliminates more overhead more than it eliminates operations. The same applies to a merger. If U and UAL merge, I predict that they will cut operations more than they cut overhead. Add this to the inevitable ill will that will be generated by trying to merge already battered labor groups, and I think this is a recipe for disaster.
Michael
 
Chip Munn Posted on Nov 11 2003, 01:12 AM
It is my understanding RSA’s David Bronner is willing to provide United with the cash in exchange for equity to merge US Airways and United together


That's your understanding? Where is the link? I don't remember seeing Bronner quoted as saying such a thing. Did he say it recently? Links, links!!!! I need links! Some middle manager saying consolidation or a few Ch7's doesn't equate to Bronner saying he's willing to pony up MORE cash. Honestly, I just haven't seen either party stating such a transaction except on this board.

Question Chip? Are you willing to work (if a merger were a reality) without your pension while our pilots retain theirs? :shock: Be careful what you wish for....... or are you hoping that more people lose what is rightfully theirs just like the injustice that was forced upon yourself? If the latter is the case, you may want to have a talk with the man in the mirror. :unsure:
 
Chip Munn said:
Both United and US Airways executives now believe the only way to lower unit costs enough is to merge to create economies of scale and the significant increase in incremental revenue.
Chip,

I find it interesting that you will not practice what you preach. There really is no need to shoot the messenger.

Your quote above is simply wrong, and completely speculation. NOWHERE has it been said that UAL believes the ONLY way to lower cost is to merge. This is an assupmtion you make by interpreting vague comments about industry consolidation.

I happen to know for a fact that (from my informed sources, including Tilton himself, Steve Forte, ALPA's MEC Chairman, and others) a merger with USAir is not of interest to Tilton under his current plan. The only thing that would change this is God forbid another 9/11 type of event, or a liquidation of USAirways.

As for understanding the facts of bankruptcy, I believe it is you who does not fully understand, or at least does not fully report, the facts. This has been proven by many with references to your flawed analysis and incorrect numbers you have posted many times in the past.

United has only accessed about half of it's available DIP money. (Around $800 Million) It has $2.4 Billion in cash (1.8 unrestricted) and that number has been increasing every month.

Therefore, your claim that $2 Billion loan would be to pay off DIP lenders and RSA would provide "real" exit cash is incorrect.

UAL could pay back the DIP lenders with cash on hand, leaving $1 Billion unrestricted cash. UA is actually looking for over $2 Billion, let's just say $2.3 Billion for now. With the ATSB backing about $2Billion from legitimate lenders like banks, and the "at risk" money coming from elsewhere, perhaps Airbus... that would leave UAL with around $3.3 Billion in unrestricted cash, or $3.9 Billion total cash.

Now... Tell me again why UAL would then need to get further cash from Bronner?????????

Sorry, but no one is buying your "fuzzy math" and your theory has more holes than swiss cheese.

You can continue to try to discredit me with talk about posting only on a US forum, and having some emotional motivation, or a strange obsession to "follow you around." As long as discussion continues about UA on this board, and you continue to try to sway people to your single minded view, I will continue to correct you and refute your speculations with facts from my informed sources.

I'm sorry if disputing you is some how offensive to you. I suggest you get over it.

767jetz
 
One more thing Chip,

My post has everything to do with this thread. I believe this thread has to do with UAL's lobby for industry consolidation, which you claim proves that a merger betwen UA and US is imminent.

So why is it that when I post information about UAL's announcement that it has potential exit financers, and other facts that show that this merger is not in the cards, you claim it has nothing to do with this thread????????

I find it interesting that you continue to shoot the messenger, whenever someone disputes your speculation.
 
"United has only accessed about half of it's available DIP money. (Around $800 Million)"

according to the 10Q's, UAL owes the Dippers 727 million at the end of Q3, down from 764 million at the end of Q2. Silly management, paying down Dip when they don't have to and when they will surely have to sell everything to get out of BK..... :rolleyes:
 
Chip Munn said:
767jetz, United’s comments were in regard to the guaranteed portion of the loan guarantee, which is not all of the equity required to emerge.
Chip:

You indicate that United is "required" to have an equity investment in order to emerge from Chapter 11. While such an equity investment would certainly be desirable, I'm not aware that it is a requirement, either of the ATSB or the bankruptcy code. Moreover, the fact that US Airways (through Bronner) and Air Canada (through Li) have included equity investments as part of their PORs does not, by itself, mean that it is a requirement for United. Remember, if United gets the $2 billion ATSB loan guarantee, it will have at least $3.65 billion in cash at the time of emergence (based on today's cash level and after repaying the $750 million or so in DIP financing that the carrier has drawn down). So please provide some citations from ATSB regulations or the bankruptcy code itself to support your contention. Otherwise, IMHO we can conclude that it is not a requirement for United to emerge.

In addition, I believe that it is not unreasonable to expect companies like GECAS and Boeing Capital (and perhaps other large creditors as well) to take a relatively small equity position in United, in a fashion similar to the way those companies invested in both US Airways and Air Canada. Thus, even if an equity investment is required for United (which, as noted above, I doubt), it would IMHO be much more likely to take this form rather than an investment by Bronner or someone similar.

Chip Munn said:
Both United and US Airways executives now believe the only way to lower unit costs enough is to merge to create economies of scale and the significant increase in incremental revenue.
I continue to disagree with your premise that a United/US Airways merger is the only way to lower costs and produce incremental revenues, at least from United's standpoint. As I pointed out in a post last week, United already gets the vast majority of the incremental revenue benefit that a merger would offer by virtue of the current code-sharing agreement with US Airways. And on the cost side, simply resuming four long-haul Transpacific round trips that were dropped during the past few years would generate such a large amount of ASMs (about 1.9 billion per quarter, fully 14 percent of US Airways' system ASMs in the 3rd quarter of 2003) that, by itself, this move would lower United's CASM by approximately 0.2¢, from 9.88¢ in the 3rd quarter of 2003 to 9.68¢ once these (or similar) flights were added back to United's system.

In contrast, while a merger would certainly generate some savings and economies of scale in the areas that you mentioned in your post last Friday (for which, incidentally, I appreciate your detailed response), IMHO it would not generate anywhere near the cost savings or lowered CASM that the flight expansion detailed above would accomplish. For instance, much of the savings would accrue from reduced salary expenses as positions are eliminated. Even if entire departments (such as PR, HR, Payroll, Investor Relations, Purchasing and Advertising, to name just a few) at one of the merged carriers were eliminated, I doubt that the combined annual salary savings would amount to as much as $10 million. And even if all annual savings (most of which would probably come from facilities consolidation) were 20 times that amount -- i.e., $200 million -- it would still total only about one percent of the merged company's pro-forma annual expenses of roughly $20 billion, which would translate into a CASM reduction of only about 0.1¢. But it's important to remember that this CASM reduction would not come from United's current CASM of 9.88¢ but from the merged carrier's pro-forma CASM of about 10.2¢ (based on aggregating both carrier's 3rd quarter results). So even if the merged carrier resumes the former United Transpacific flights with its 0.2¢ reduction in CASM on top of the 0.1¢ drop in CASM related to presumed merger savings, the merged carrier's CASM would then still be 9.9¢, 2.3 percent higher than United's stand-alone CASM of 9.68¢ with the resumed Transpacific flights and that much further away from the "south of 9¢" goal recently mentioned by Siegel and sought by United as well.

In the end, the numbers seem to indicate that a United/US Airways merger doesn't make sense, at least for United. And nothing you have shown in your posts, including the general statement by a mid-level manager at United that can hardly be considered a major corporate policy pronouncement (and that you merely assume refers to a merger with US Airways), has convinced me otherwise. JMHO.

Chip Munn said:
... Bronner has indicated he would become United’s equity plan sponsor ...
One last thing -- as Fly suggested, please provide some link to a source for this statement. Unless, of course, it is just more information from your "secret sources" that, by definition, is unverifiable.
 

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