WorldTraveler
Corn Field
- Dec 5, 2003
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let it go to court. WN stands to lose it all
UA transfers its two DAL (Love Field) gates to Southwest; Is DL out?
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Kev3188
Veteran
I'm not sure anyone will "lose it all." That seems a bit over the top. I see it playing out a couple of different ways:
1. A quiet side deal to let DL sub-lease a gate.
2. An additional gate added at DAL (suggested on A.Net, and at first blush sounds crazy, but hey, who knows?).
3. DL has to exit DAL, and Hauenstein & co. do their thing to seek revenue elsewhere.
1. A quiet side deal to let DL sub-lease a gate.
2. An additional gate added at DAL (suggested on A.Net, and at first blush sounds crazy, but hey, who knows?).
3. DL has to exit DAL, and Hauenstein & co. do their thing to seek revenue elsewhere.
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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number 3 isn't an option because DL does not believe in letting carriers serve markets that DL cannot serve on fair terms. The ME3 controversy and DAL are more alike than you would like to believe.
DL might be content to sublease HALF of a gate but I think that DL would be more than happy to overturn the whole DAL gate restrictions and WN's leases in order to compete with a size large enough to be of a significant size at DAL. that is why they sought 2 gates to begin with.
I have long agreed with swamt that DL could support additional gates at DAL but only if DL ends up better than what they have now... and that means more than half of a gate's worth of flying.
For now, all of the predictions that DL would be pushed out have come to naught and DL is in a better position than many thought given that the DOT is on DL's side. this isn't just a DL vs everyone else debate. WN is the carrier on the defensive now.
DL might be content to sublease HALF of a gate but I think that DL would be more than happy to overturn the whole DAL gate restrictions and WN's leases in order to compete with a size large enough to be of a significant size at DAL. that is why they sought 2 gates to begin with.
I have long agreed with swamt that DL could support additional gates at DAL but only if DL ends up better than what they have now... and that means more than half of a gate's worth of flying.
For now, all of the predictions that DL would be pushed out have come to naught and DL is in a better position than many thought given that the DOT is on DL's side. this isn't just a DL vs everyone else debate. WN is the carrier on the defensive now.
FrugalFlyerv2.0
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- Oct 29, 2003
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WorldTraveler said:
Where do you come up with this stuff?
How, on God's green earth, would WN "lose it all" in either this specific court case or some other manner?
3 very good guesses. The statement of SWA will lose everything is just completely blown way out of whack and over drama. He's just pissed that SWA beat Delta to the courts. I think a possible appeal to the max cap at DAL should be addressed at this time. They are saying that the passengers numbers that were going to hit 6.5 million by late 2017 and 2018, will be hit this year 2015. The W/A going away has had a much larger impact than anyone was expecting (parking included). This way Delta could get their 2 gates, looks like Virgin might need to grow 2 more gates for them. leave another 2 gates open for a new airline to enter, then SWA could take 6-8 remaining gates and all are happy campers. Let's open the cap up to the 32 original gates-now is the time...Kev3188 said:
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
- Dec 5, 2003
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- #232
it is only blown out of proportion because you don't want to believe how far this could spend out of control.
You have never believed that it is completely contrary to US antitrust law for a US carrier to control 95% of the seats at an airport. WN got by with it because DAL was of no use to much of anyone else when the WA was in effect.
WN has done everything it can to lock up the real estate and then remove the flight restrictions.
problem is that way too many people here aren't smart enough to realize that removing the flight restrictions should have been accompanied by a reset of the leases and the amount of control that WN or any other carrier controls.
I can assure you that DL has not forgotten that WN was able to convince the DOJ to give WN increased access to DCA and LGA despite the fact that no carrier has anywhere close to the percentage of seats at any other top 50 airport that WN has at DAL.
Nobody has bothered to push the question far enough up the line - and as I have noted - DL and UA both stand more to gain right now by letting WN beat up on AA in N. Texas- which is what is happening.
But AA, DL, and UA all have huge incentives to see the rug get pulled out from under WN at DAL.
and any one of them will have no problem convincing the legislature and judges of who screwed up with the way DAL operates.
It really is not a question of if but when it all blows up for WN at DAL.
You have never believed that it is completely contrary to US antitrust law for a US carrier to control 95% of the seats at an airport. WN got by with it because DAL was of no use to much of anyone else when the WA was in effect.
WN has done everything it can to lock up the real estate and then remove the flight restrictions.
problem is that way too many people here aren't smart enough to realize that removing the flight restrictions should have been accompanied by a reset of the leases and the amount of control that WN or any other carrier controls.
I can assure you that DL has not forgotten that WN was able to convince the DOJ to give WN increased access to DCA and LGA despite the fact that no carrier has anywhere close to the percentage of seats at any other top 50 airport that WN has at DAL.
Nobody has bothered to push the question far enough up the line - and as I have noted - DL and UA both stand more to gain right now by letting WN beat up on AA in N. Texas- which is what is happening.
But AA, DL, and UA all have huge incentives to see the rug get pulled out from under WN at DAL.
and any one of them will have no problem convincing the legislature and judges of who screwed up with the way DAL operates.
It really is not a question of if but when it all blows up for WN at DAL.
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
- Dec 5, 2003
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- #234
only you could come to such a conclusion.
WN flies to precisely ONE DL market from DAL while every market they fly duplicates routes AA flies from DFW.
When you make statements like the one you just made, it shows that you aren't interested in a factual discussion but in how you can throw mud.
don't worry... your bosses are a whole lot smarter than you and they know that their objective is to pull traffic from AA's DFW hub, not from DL.
WN flies to precisely ONE DL market from DAL while every market they fly duplicates routes AA flies from DFW.
When you make statements like the one you just made, it shows that you aren't interested in a factual discussion but in how you can throw mud.
don't worry... your bosses are a whole lot smarter than you and they know that their objective is to pull traffic from AA's DFW hub, not from DL.
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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- #236
however you look at DL and WN overlap on precisely one DAL market.
WN from DAL overlaps DL service from DFW to LAX and LGA, markets which AA also serves. however, someone can correct me but I believe that AA flies to EVERY market from DFW that WN serves from DAL.
the notion that WN is targeting DL more than AA from DAL is simply incorrect.
WN from DAL overlaps DL service from DFW to LAX and LGA, markets which AA also serves. however, someone can correct me but I believe that AA flies to EVERY market from DFW that WN serves from DAL.
the notion that WN is targeting DL more than AA from DAL is simply incorrect.
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
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- #238
and you can't seem to accept that the 5PA doesn't amount to squat if it results in violations of US antitrust law = which is exactly what has happened with WN's dominance of DAL to the exclusion of every other airline except a tiny little DL presence and a weak little VX that will make sure that WN finishes them off with the decision to go into DAL-AUS.
and if you don't think for one nanosecond that AA is thinking about every which way to Sunday to get back into DAL, you are horribly out of touch with reality.
As I expected, WN is taking enormous amounts of share from AA... they aren't creating a new market. They are taking share from AA - just like they did with MCI and STL and every other market that WN has been able to serve from DAL.
AA can either let WN box themselves into the size of DAL and let WN take half of the share AA carries in every market the WN and AA serve together or AA can figure out how to get back into DAL and begin to defend its core markets.
Given that AA signed a consent degree to stay out of DAL, it will be far harder for them to return than it will be for DL to argue that they should get a proportional share of gates that allow it to provide meaningful competition to WN, esp. if WN wants to expand.
Given that WN's expansion is bringing fares down, taking pricing power away from AA, and allowing other carriers to expand at DFW, it is very possible that within a few years, AA's share of the N. Texas domestic market could fall to 40% - a level that will have significant financial implications for AA's finances, esp. since Parker's answer to save DFW right now is to rebank the hub and push more connecting traffic thru it, the exact same thing he is trying to do thru every other hub. problem is that unless starts undercutting industry pricing, he can't fill that many seats OR he can undercut industry pricing and give a green light for other carriers to do the same thing to AA's top markets. Given that HP and US were built around item 2, that is probably the option Parker will choose - with the result that at some point, Parker will argue that he needs a merger with someone because he screwed up AA's pricing and has no pricing control in AA's top markets. Who do you think the DOJ is going to allow AA to merge with at that point?
So, AA can just let WN continue to dominate DAL which will decimate AA's share of the local market or AA can realize that they need to agree to allow WN to expand DAL, get back there themselves, and allow DL to get in with a reasonable size as well.
however it turns out, Parker's agreeing to give up the gates at DAL in order to get the merger approved will probably go down as the dumbest strategic move of the decade - but then the decade is still young so there could be a whole lot more that are even worst yet to come.
and if you don't think for one nanosecond that AA is thinking about every which way to Sunday to get back into DAL, you are horribly out of touch with reality.
As I expected, WN is taking enormous amounts of share from AA... they aren't creating a new market. They are taking share from AA - just like they did with MCI and STL and every other market that WN has been able to serve from DAL.
AA can either let WN box themselves into the size of DAL and let WN take half of the share AA carries in every market the WN and AA serve together or AA can figure out how to get back into DAL and begin to defend its core markets.
Given that AA signed a consent degree to stay out of DAL, it will be far harder for them to return than it will be for DL to argue that they should get a proportional share of gates that allow it to provide meaningful competition to WN, esp. if WN wants to expand.
Given that WN's expansion is bringing fares down, taking pricing power away from AA, and allowing other carriers to expand at DFW, it is very possible that within a few years, AA's share of the N. Texas domestic market could fall to 40% - a level that will have significant financial implications for AA's finances, esp. since Parker's answer to save DFW right now is to rebank the hub and push more connecting traffic thru it, the exact same thing he is trying to do thru every other hub. problem is that unless starts undercutting industry pricing, he can't fill that many seats OR he can undercut industry pricing and give a green light for other carriers to do the same thing to AA's top markets. Given that HP and US were built around item 2, that is probably the option Parker will choose - with the result that at some point, Parker will argue that he needs a merger with someone because he screwed up AA's pricing and has no pricing control in AA's top markets. Who do you think the DOJ is going to allow AA to merge with at that point?
So, AA can just let WN continue to dominate DAL which will decimate AA's share of the local market or AA can realize that they need to agree to allow WN to expand DAL, get back there themselves, and allow DL to get in with a reasonable size as well.
however it turns out, Parker's agreeing to give up the gates at DAL in order to get the merger approved will probably go down as the dumbest strategic move of the decade - but then the decade is still young so there could be a whole lot more that are even worst yet to come.
Kev3188
Veteran
Won't stop the posturing, though...eolesen said:
WorldTraveler
Corn Field
- Dec 5, 2003
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- #240
considering that the DOT is supporting the DL position which I said all along they would have to, there are a whole lot of people who have been wrong about DL in DAL and the more evidence that comes out will show that DL's "posturing" is exactly standing up for its rights which no other party here has been willing to admit exists.
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