UA-CO Merger Rumors Now Surfacing on Wall Street

[Bulscu]

Two bottom performing companies hardly look like good merger partners.

Ahhhhhh, nooooo.....you're still not getting it..


Consequently, still no cigar....


....Buckle-Up over there at Delta!


The Times They Are A Change'n...







It'll all become Crystal Clear for you around the first of the year. 😛


Good-Luck.

 

[TechBoy]

The reason DL ground employees and FAs don’t take a hit on a freeze is because benefits are still paid under the original plan, not under rPBGC guidelines. A freeze does indeed protect pension benefits better than a termination.

OK, let's try this one more time. Your statement is only true for employees whose accrued benefits are above the PBGC limits. And I doubt that any of the FAs are above the limits. What part of this do you not understand? Or are you being deliberately obtuse?

It's important to remember that the PBGC limits are personal, not group. That is, each individual beneficiary has a personal guarantee up to the limits. The plan itself is a different question. Remember that the plan (even under PBGC control) can pay out amounts higher than the limits (but lower than promised) if sufficient funds exist. But the minimum amounts are guaranteed.

 

[jbguppy]

It appears that if a merger occurs betweeen CO & UA the trip up the senority list will be stunted at UAL. CO has been expanding and HIRING for the last couple of years while UAl has been stagnate. How can career expectation be better at UAL than CO for a pilot that is furloughed? Sure, if they were to remain separate companies there would be advancments at CO and recalls at UAL (because of retirements at both). But "if" a merge occurs, the furloughed guys will be the last to hit the senority list.

Actually UAL has brought back several hundred furloughees over the last couple of years, so we have not been "stagnate" (sic). Career expectations are simple, look at the fleets, their seniority, and the likelihood of getting a widebody job at certain seniority levels. I like my chances at UAL since we have over 200 jets bigger than a 737, CAL has less than half that many big jets. Career expectations are pretty simple to figure out when looking at that. Much more opportunity for bigger jet jobs at UAL.

As far as your predictions of who will hit the seniority list and where... ALPA merger policy will be the determining factor there, and career expectations is only one of many factors that play there.

JBG

 

[WorldTraveler]

It's important to remember that the PBGC limits are personal, not group. That is, each individual beneficiary has a personal guarantee up to the limits.

Precisely. But the reality which you and everyone else seem to be unwilling to address is that every UA pension plan has participants that will not receive the same amount of benefits they were promised under the plan as if it had been paid out by UA. It is those people that I'm speaking of and they are very much out there; added together those lost benefits make up the difference between what UA promised and what the PBGC will pay - and the PBGC will pay LESS than what UA promised - IN TOTAL. Every company in the country would turn their plans over to the PBGC if there were no loss of benefits, either individually or as a group. It's the big picture, folks.

And bulscu, I do indeed get it.

 

[Fly]

I actually received a distribution sheet from the PBGC explaining precisely what I will receive at age 65....did you?


(strange that you are probably disappointed that we didn't lose money. You should probably search deep inside yourself to find out why that is.)

 

[WorldTraveler]

My pension is not protected by the PBGC so I don't get any statements from them. And while you may or may not get everything you were promised by UA, somebody is not getting everything they were originally going to get. You have yet to identify who those people are and what they are losing but there is a loss of benefits to someone.

Sorry for the interruption, bulscu, but I had to take a call. Neither you or anyone else has shown me something positive that any nationally known industry analyst has written about UA since the 2nd quarter results were released. You also have not explained how UA will not be impacted when they had the biggest traffic drop of all the large airlines in the month of August.

Don't worry about DL. They reported an operating profit margin in July that was twice what UA reported in its previous quarter (granted not an apples to apples comparison but DL was still better by 60% in a comparable comparison). And DL's traffic was virtually flat in August w/ far less capacity reduction than UA had at this point in its bankruptcy.

Keep dreaming about someone to save you from the nightmare that is UA but it will only come when UA goes through another bankruptcy. UA's debt is essentially unchanged except for pension items and its costs are still the highest in the industry. Those things alone are enough to keep UA from succeeding. UA will only be an attractive merger partner when it gets its balance sheet and costs fixed and that cannot happen outside of BK.

 

[smfav8r]

Actually UAL has brought back several hundred furloughees over the last couple of years, so we have not been "stagnate" (sic). Career expectations are simple, look at the fleets, their seniority, and the likelihood of getting a widebody job at certain seniority levels. I like my chances at UAL since we have over 200 jets bigger than a 737, CAL has less than half that many big jets. Career expectations are pretty simple to figure out when looking at that. Much more opportunity for bigger jet jobs at UAL.

As far as your predictions of who will hit the seniority list and where... ALPA merger policy will be the determining factor there, and career expectations is only one of many factors that play there.

JBG

While I agree with your statement about career expectations....I really don't see any career expectations in this industry anymore.

A pilot for WN back in the 70's didn't expect to be the highest paid 73 skips in the industry....furloughed UAL pilots in the late 70's went to AAA or PI (pre-USAir) and were Captains pretty quick and were making more then they would have at UAL, now they are back at the bottom of the barrel. What about the PAN AM, Braniff or EAL pilots?

At this point, I think career expectations are a crap-shoot...if you good in Vegas, maybe you will have a good career as a pilot.

It's just an opinion from a pilot who's been furloughed way too many times.

 

[Fly]

My pension is not protected by the PBGC so I don't get any statements from them.

Then why do you keep acting as if you are the expert? You have no idea what we did have nor what we will receive. I do, the DL f/a's do, you do NOT.

WT, we have told you, ad nauseum, who is losing in the benefits....the pilots and management.

Let's comapare apples to apples then. What was the profit for 2nd quarter, Delta compared to United. Wait! I think United made more money. Isn't that correct? So there may have been a 60% difference, except it was Delta that LOST that argument.

fyi - load factor means nothing. Any airline can give away their seats and have 100% load factor. Look how well it worked for FlyI. Look at LUV, you know them right (the airline making $$$), their load factor was 77.1% in August. If I were to use you're thinking, they should be filing bk anyday now. Anyway, UA had a higher load factor for August so try to keep your comparables in order, ok?

DL August load factor 79.9%

UA August load factor 83.5%

Also, who is stupid enough to compare separate quarter earnings? Apparently YOU but who else? You can only compare the NOW, not the DL now vs the UAL then. Dumb bunny. August

 

[Cosmo]

You also have not explained how UA will not be impacted when they had the biggest traffic drop of all the large airlines in the month of August.

Well, you can just imagine my surprise to find out that this statement is inaccurate, to put it charitably.

I did a little checking of carrier press releases issued during the past week, outlining their August 2006 traffic results together with year-over-year comparisons. The Y-O-Y change in each carrier's total mainline RPMs for the month was as follows:

American -1.4%
Continental 8.9%
Delta -4.9%
Northwest -5.4%
Southwest 10.0%
United 1.5%
US Airways -5.3%

So not only did United outperform the two insolvent carriers (Delta and Northwest), but it also bested American and US Airways as well. And while United's total RPM growth rate may be nothing to brag about, it was a heck of a lot better than that achieved by Delta, notwithstanding its massive international expansion this past spring and summer.

While I will admit that monthly RPM growth is not the greatest indicator of an airline's prospects for future success, you brought it up (on more than one occasion, I might add) and have nobody to blame but yourself for the egg that's now figuratively all over your face. Thus, I would suggest that you stop pulling numbers out of your butt and stick to the facts! 😛

 

[Bulscu]

My pension is not protected by the PBGC so I don't get any statements from them. And while you may or may not get everything you were promised by UA, somebody is not getting everything they were originally going to get. You have yet to identify who those people are and what they are losing but there is a loss of benefits to someone.

Sorry for the interruption, bulscu, but I had to take a call. Neither you or anyone else has shown me something positive that any nationally known industry analyst has written about UA since the 2nd quarter results were released. You also have not explained how UA will not be impacted when they had the biggest traffic drop of all the large airlines in the month of August.

Don't worry about DL. They reported an operating profit margin in July that was twice what UA reported in its previous quarter (granted not an apples to apples comparison but DL was still better by 60% in a comparable comparison). And DL's traffic was virtually flat in August w/ far less capacity reduction than UA had at this point in its bankruptcy.

Keep dreaming about someone to save you from the nightmare that is UA but it will only come when UA goes through another bankruptcy. UA's debt is essentially unchanged except for pension items and its costs are still the highest in the industry. Those things alone are enough to keep UA from succeeding. UA will only be an attractive merger partner when it gets its balance sheet and costs fixed and that cannot happen outside of BK.

And bulscu, I do indeed get it.

No, you indeed don't get it..

you just think you do.

To UAL/CAL folks, my belief for whatever it's worth, 'It's All Good...!'

Once again....IMHOpinion.

Good luck to all.

 

[jbguppy]

Well, you can just imagine my surprise to find out that this statement is inaccurate, to put it charitably.

I did a little checking of carrier press releases issued during the past week, outlining their August 2006 traffic results together with year-over-year comparisons. The Y-O-Y change in each carrier's total mainline RPMs for the month was as follows:

American -1.4%
Continental 8.9%
Delta -4.9%
Northwest -5.4%
Southwest 10.0%
United 1.5%
US Airways -5.3%

So not only did United outperform the two insolvent carriers (Delta and Northwest), but it also bested American and US Airways as well. And while United's total RPM growth rate may be nothing to brag about, it was a heck of a lot better than that achieved by Delta, notwithstanding its massive international expansion this past spring and summer.

While I will admit that monthly RPM growth is not the greatest indicator of an airline's prospects for future success, you brought it up (on more than one occasion, I might add) and have nobody to blame but yourself for the egg that's now figuratively all over your face. Thus, I would suggest that you stop pulling numbers out of your butt and stick to the facts! 😛

OMG!!! Somebody who actually does a little research before spouting off,

Very well done Cosmo.

JBG

 

[WorldTraveler]

Cosmo,
You’re getting incredibly sloppy. Or desperate. Or both.

Why don’t you post UA’s LF versus other carriers? Every airline has reduced capacity as part of its restructuring so RPMs aren’t a terribly meaningful comparison. How else do you think US has kept its RASM so high but by repeated, continual capacity reductions. They are the shrinking airline but their financials sure look good. However, overall, DL has reduced far less capacity as part of its restructuring than UA did at the same point of its C11 proceedings… DL and NW did a better job of matching capacity to demand than other airlines, and once again, UA was at the bottom of the heap.

Present the facts, not some pathetic manipulation of them.

 

[jbguppy]

Cosmo,
You’re getting incredibly sloppy. Or desperate. Or both.

Why don’t you post UA’s LF versus other carriers? Every airline has reduced capacity as part of its restructuring so RPMs aren’t a terribly meaningful comparison. How else do you think US has kept its RASM so high but by repeated, continual capacity reductions. They are the shrinking airline but their financials sure look good. However, overall, DL has reduced far less capacity as part of its restructuring than UA did at the same point of its C11 proceedings… DL and NW did a better job of matching capacity to demand than other airlines, and once again, UA was at the bottom of the heap.

Present the facts, not some pathetic manipulation of them.

It is all about relative pricing power...

Yes, DL's failure thus far to reduce capacity has led to poor pricing power compared to if they had parked more of their aging fleet.

Their inability to match product with demand shows they didn't really learn anything from the stupidest management move by any airline in the last 10 years - SIMPLIFARES???

They (DL) are proving time and time again they are the poorest managed airline in the business with these continual mis-steps. It is why their bankruptcy has gone on and on much longer than YOU predicted.

JBG

 

[Fly]

Delta was eliminating capacity at that time too. You want to compare apples and oranges. DL was striving (as were all airlines) to stay afloat after 9/11. Everyone was trying to restructure outside of bk if possible by switching things around. When UAL filed, that was the height of everyone's serious aligning of their company, so it is not an even comparison by any stretch. Do you remember Simpli(stupid)fares???


Now what was the title of this thread again??? You must be wetting your pants thinking that DL is NOT going to be able to eat up big bad United. Boo hoo. (your motives are obvious. Do you remember asking if I'd like to start over at the bottom of DL? You need help)

****anyone else find it interesting that CAL and UAL always stay within a few cents of each other recently. One is up, the other is up...vice versa. hmmmm*****

 

[magsau]

Is Delta ever going to exit BK? Or are they just going to stay in forever and eventualy fold?.......To all others this is ment for our friend WT. He can not answer the exit date question so I am just spinning him up. Best of luck to everyone at DL, other than WT.