The Day After The Judge Ruled

[funguy2]

funguy, whos the wind bag? you spent all that time and your point is? Disgusting that all u can muster is an insult... go do your job if u still have one!

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What USA320Pilot should just be allowed to post his opinion ad nauseum with no criticism? Sorry, but when you post as much and as long as he does, your credibility becomes an issue.

Why post articles from every newspaper under the sun and then complain that people might read it?

Why post opinions from every "expert" who agrees with you, and then call many of them "not informed"

I mean, come on! This is the guy who quoted an opinion piece from a Myrtle Beach newspaper, filled with inaccuracies about US Airways and "hometown" Hooters Air, and then tell people to pay no attention to "uninformed" sources.Old USAviation.com Thread

Sorry, but USA320Pilot looses a lot of credibility with these statements, as he discredits his very own sources.

And, by the way, the only claims USA320Pilot makes in that extremely long post is that:

1. PIT will be relatively unaffected by Southwest... even though we can rattle down the former US Airways strong-holds which Southwest has impacted to varying degrees. To claim that Southwest's impact will be minimal is equivalent to denying they fly to PHL.

2. That the financial community is still "behind" US Airways... However, there is very little evidence to support this claim as 1. The financial community pushed US Airways into BK #2 when the company could not pay its bills, and no investors have even approached US Airways with conditional financing offers, and DIP financing is essentially being provided by employee concessions.

3. US Airways is "successfully" navigating the BK process... However, I would hardly characterize filing BK#2 within two years of emerging from BK#1 "successful".

 

[ClueByFour]

In regard to Southwest entering the Pittsburgh market, I do not believe the new competitor will have much effect on US Airways’ successful transformation. Why? The airports operating costs are relatively high and there is poor O&D.

Uhh, with all due respect, you are wrong on this. The CEO of Southwest Airlines has stated that the PIT market is "overpriced and underserved" and you say it's got poor O&D. Who should the gentle reader believe?

CLT has even lower O&D. Time to close up shop, eh?

Pittsburgh already has LCC competition from Independence Air, USA3000, AirTran, and ATA and Southwest’s entrance is more of the same. Southwest’s entrance in the summer will be with a couple of gates and 10 to 14 flights, which may grow to 40 or 50 flights per day, with US Airways operating over 200 mainline and express flights per day.

And the yield on those flights will now take a dive, in addition to which, US will be at a competitive disadvantage in the sense that in many cases they'll be sending RJs head to head with newer 737s. Oh, and then there is the small problem of the average pax believing that Southwest will be around in 6 months to service their ticket.

Also noteworthy, US Airways effectively shifted Pittsburgh flying to Fort Lauderdale, where the costs are lower, yield/revenue higher, and the facilities/ATC almost as good as Pittsburgh.

The domestic yields are already crap at FLL, and the international yields don't yet exist. In addition to which, there will be a nasty fight with AA, who has more cash, more equipment, and tons more experience flying to the islands and Latin America. The runway layout is nowhere near what PIT enjoys, there are massive NIMBY problems, and hurricane issues for 6 months of the year.

Today Gary Chase, Lehman Brothers airline analyst said the “decision clearly hurts US Airways, but less so than it would have a year ago. We don't believe this breaks the back of US Airways.â€￾

Mike Boyd said it's the final nail in the coffin.

Why? In my opinion US Airways must have a competitive cost structure that can support GoFares or it will fail, especially in light of Delta’s announcement. Low fares are the future and either the company offers them at a profit, or it liquidates.

Meanwhile, US Airways will get a revenue boost at DCA because Independence Air, a problematic LCC, announced a cost-cutting move yesterday when it said it plans to eliminate 150 of its 560 daily flights -- most in and out of Dulles -- at the end of this month. Who wins? United and US Airways.

How do UA and US win? In your previous paragraph, you imply that "GoFares" must be supported. Your latter paragraph seems to imply that absent Independence that fares/yields would be higher in the DC market. That's the same type of thinking on the part of your management that has the guy with LUV stock rolling in it, and one of their 737 jocks making you guys look like RJ drivers when it comes to salary.

Reality at 11.

 

[North by Northwest]

For a Judge to unilaterally toss out a Union contract that took decades to build is a dark day in the history of the American working class. The Republican Party has utilized the most intellectually challenged generation in our nations history. The Bush Administration will toast a victory for the Rich tonight. If there was ONE airline employee in this nation that voted for George Bush...I hope you are one of the FIRST to need the unemployment check. This is a full blown tradgedy. No one in this industry should accept this action quietly, no matter what airline you work for. This is a DIRECT ATTACK on ALL airlines and Unions. Where are the leaders of America's Unions? This must NOT go un-challenged!

 

[savyinvestor]

I couldn't agree more with funguy2 and clue. USA 320 posts are like reading a prospectus on U. Savy

 

[bobcat]

Sure the work groups may have voted "yes" for the new contracts but it wasn't like they really had a choice. The TA's were basically shoved down everyone's throats once again. Threats were made, the senior employees were pitted against less senior employees and management dangled the "buy out carrot", that will never materialize, in front of more than one work group's noses. Everything with this management group is done underhandedly and they have gone about it the wrong way from day one. If you think things are going to get better now with these bogus agreements you need your head examined. Management got what they wanted but moral is worse than ever now, if you can believe it. Moral and the relations between management and employees will never be repaired after this last round of BOHICA. The latest round of give backs will cure nothing. The place is doomed!

 

[usfliboi]

Ok Now what funguy? What good does it do for u to do whatever it is your doing.? At least he has enough information in his post to make a difference.... and yours? So now what? Hell continue to post articles and his opinion.... i guess all youll do is continue to say ... blah blah blah ? Do something constructive!

 

[Rico]

Well, I have to make two points.

1. I think most everyone that still cares is more than ready to put this year behind us and move forward.

2. All of you naysayers were wrong We are open for business today, tomm, and the next day too... And now you are trying to once again change your estimate/reasons of when/why we will die. Why...?

But this is not about reminding you that we "told you so"... It is an invitation to lose that huge chip on your shoulders, and try to help OUR company continue to survive, and then succeed.

It is a new year, time for a new attitude and fresh optimism.

 

[justanadd]

Why does that bother you? You'd like everyone on here to take everything you post as a "fact"...

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Thank you!

 

[sfb]

- US Airways has negotiated new labor agreements that will save the company $700 million per year. The pilot’s provided $300 million, the AFA $94 million (plus $63 million for pension and retiree health care changes), the CWA $137 million, and the TWU $6 million per year.

Those numbers add up to $600 million.

- Non-union workers have contributed more than $200 million in cost cuts.

Really? A 5 percent management paycut worked out to $200 million? Management's own figure in its motion to the bankruptcy court put the figure at $40 million (this includes headcount reductions and benefit reductions).

When evaluating the proposal, IAM members must look at two points: having no job or having job while looking for another job. Another key point is that the company’s proposal addresses two large issues: reducing the 21 percent “imposed†pay cut to a much more manageable number and preserving a majority of the 8,500 IAM positions. Judge Mitchell acknowledged the machinists are being asked to "cut their own throats." But he said the union did not prove the cuts were unnecessary while the carrier demonstrated the savings were vital. "Which is worse, half the mechanics losing their jobs or all of the mechanics losing their jobs?" Mitchell asked. However, according to today’s Pittsburgh Tribune-Review several rank and file mechanics at the Pittsburgh hangar said the offer seemed to provide a glimmer of hope, but added they would reserve final judgment until they get more information.

Well, I think the biggest thing each IAM member will look out for is his/her own job. If given the choice of "vote yes and lose your job or vote no and lose your job," a lot of folks would probably say, "screw the company." Look at how close the pilots' vote was and consider that they had a LOT more to lose.

What bothers me about some of our posts is that a reader looks at a comment in the newspaper and they believe the comment is fact. People like Vaughn Cordle and Mike Boyd do not clearly look at the numbers, SEC filings, or know what is happening inside the company. Cordle is a United pilot, is clearly uninformed, and has a special interest. When reading a periodical the best sources are key analysts like Merrill’s Michael Linnenberg, S&P’s Phil Baggaley, and Lehman’s Gary Chase. The only news reporters who truly have a handle on the inside information are Susan Carey of the Wall Street Journal, Michelline Maynard of the New York Times, Lynn Marek of Bloomberg News, and Dan Roberts of the Financial Times. I do not listen to anybody else because they are not informed, but the people listed above can directly speak with every industry CEO, if desired.

OK, well I'll quote Micheline Maynard (at least spell her first name right if you respect her writing!) from today's New York Times in regard to Delta's SimpliFares:

"It [SimpliFares] could even force one or more airlines out of the big leagues, with the first casualty most likely to be US Airways, which is in bankruptcy for the second time in two years."

Or in yesterday's Times:

Southwest Airlines, the industry's healthiest player, delivered another punch to struggling US Airways, announcing plans to start service from Pittsburgh, where US Airways is dismantling its hub after a long reign as the airport's dominant carrier.

The next two hurdles that Roberts indicated must occur by January 14 are:

- US Airways needs to find $100 million in cash or cost savings, or it risks upsetting a key deal with GE, which controls most of the airline's fleet and is very favorable to the airline.

- US Airways must win an extension to continue using ATSB guaranteed funds.

Well, January 14 is one week away. There's still no cash or cost savings on the table, and now it looks like revenues are going to get even worse with Delta's SimpliFares and Southwest entering PIT. And I can't see an outside investor stepping up to drop $100 million into the money pit unless and until there's some certainty that the IAM-represented labor groups won't shut things down (i.e. late January).

In regard to Southwest entering the Pittsburgh market, I do not believe the new competitor will have much effect on US Airways’ successful transformation. Why? The airports operating costs are relatively high and there is poor O&D. Pittsburgh already has LCC competition from Independence Air, USA3000, AirTran, and ATA and Southwest’s entrance is more of the same. Southwest’s entrance in the summer will be with a couple of gates and 10 to 14 flights, which may grow to 40 or 50 flights per day, with US Airways operating over 200 mainline and express flights per day.

You're kidding, right? US operates a whopping 70 daily mainline flights into PIT these days. If SWA ramps up to 40 or 50 daily flights, that will be close to half of US's total capacity at PIT. You neglect to mention that many of the roughly 160 express flights per day are 19-seat turboprops, each with a handful of seats filled with passengers making connections at PIT. WN will destroy yields to at least half of PIT's top 30 destinations -- and this won't have much effect?

ATA, AirTran, Independence, and USA3000 (hahahaha) together amount to far less than what WN will add in its first wave of PIT flights.

Also noteworthy, US Airways effectively shifted Pittsburgh flying to Fort Lauderdale, where the costs are lower, yield/revenue higher, and the facilities/ATC almost as good as Pittsburgh.

Yields higher at FLL? Fat chance. Let's see, FLL has Southwest, jetBlue, Song, Spirit, AirTran, USA3000, Frontier, and Ted. Delta's revamping its fare structure and is #1 in FLL. Southwest and jetBlue are both in the top five at FLL.

Facilities/ATC better at FLL? You've got NIMBY's in Dania Beach effectively blocking an upgrade of the parallel runway for commercial jets, and the crosswind runway crosses the main east-west runway. FLL is already approaching its airfield capacity. Terminals? You're going to have your international arrivals come into a completely different terminal than your departures so you can tow the planes over for extra efficiency, and the passengers can hike outdoors between Terminal 4 and Terminal 3 for extra convenience if they're connecting! Not just that, but the international arrivals facility at FLL wasn't really designed with a connecting hub in mind.

In my opinion US Airways must have a competitive cost structure that can support GoFares or it will fail, especially in light of Delta’s announcement. Low fares are the future and either the company offers them at a profit, or it liquidates.

Well, the company has ratified cost-cutting agreements with all of its unions aside from the IAM, and they have the judge's okay to abrogate the IAM contracts if necessary. It looks like all of the labor-related elements of management's proposed "competitive cost structure" are in place -- so where are the systemwide GoFares? (And not just the knee-jerk response to DL.)

Meanwhile, US Airways will get a revenue boost at DCA because Independence Air, a problematic LCC, announced a cost-cutting move yesterday when it said it plans to eliminate 150 of its 560 daily flights -- most in and out of Dulles -- at the end of this month. Who wins? United and US Airways.

Well, sort of. This means fewer discounted seats on the market, which does help, but a successfully restructured FlyI will continue to keep pressure on yields from WAS. And if FlyI were to cease operations or return to the United Express fold, what would be the fate of GoFares in Washington?

 

[tinpadro]

I must say I do admire USAir employees and the way you guys hang in there when clearly everyone has counted you out. The same story can be told at the Empire UA. Its the people that keep the machine moving. However, I do believe, regardless of all the concessions the company gains its the same people who will one day say they've had it and it will all collapse.

Who wants to go to work everyday and wonder if its their last day or if you finally get to go home and turn on the news to see some other crap with your company has happened. There is quite a bit of emotional damage being done here not just financial. You can't just quit because where will you go? Maybe you are too old to start over or maybe you have a family. Its not that easy to just walk out the door or everyone would do that. I can personally state that at UA much like USAir the employees are smiling out front but collapsing within and at each other.

Management puts out to the public everythings fine but if you walk in the office, people are red hot with anger. I just think USAir is the first up to find out how far you can push people. At the empire UA there will be a much bigger shockwave should that occur. Ive had employees tell me to my face that the company is too big to collapse. I told them they were smoking crack. Any company can fail if it (management) or the employees in it want it too.

What needs to happen here is some sort of summit amongst airline employee groups to put together ideas and help change the system before the system changes you right to the street. I do enjoy reading this board because through all the rhetoric I think everyone on here has a stake in the operation and this is one way they can express it. Its a pity the upper echelon cant recognize these are people not meaningless cogs and everyone deserves respect and honesty.

Sorry for the rant all. Keep hope alive.

B)

 

[funguy2]

Ok Now what funguy? What good does it do for u to do whatever it is your doing.? At least he has enough information in his post to make a difference.... and yours? So now what? Hell continue to post articles and his opinion.... i guess all youll do is continue to say ... blah blah blah ? Do something constructive!

[post="236743"][/post]​

What "difference" is USA320Pilot making? Certainly he is making no difference to the outcome of US Airways? If he did have an impact, US Airways would have been merged with UAL over 3 years ago

And you define "constructive" as criticizing my criticism?

As an outsider, there is not much I can do. In fact, not much anyone says here on this board will make a difference as to what happens with US Airways. Even the actions of the good people of US Airways' front-line staff will have little impact at this point. The people who can make a difference (like UAIR's BOD, Chairman, CEO, and executives) certainly don't read this drivel (which is too bad, because once in a while somebody posts a really good idea or point). At this point, there isn't much more to do than watch and wait and see if something good comes out of this death spiral. I am not saying I like it. I am not saying I want US Airways to fail, or its employees to suffer. But step one to solving your problem is to end the denial. That hasn't happened yet. USA320Pilots comments on Southwest's effect on the competitive landscape at PIT, and your defense of them, prove that.

However, if USA320Pilot wishes to continue posting heaping mounds of one-sided speculation supported by news articles from "uninformed" sources on here, that's fine, he has every right. And you have defined that as constructive. But I will keep pointing out the fallacies in his arguments and logic. I think that is constructive, at least for people who can read, comprehend, and think for themselves. There are usually at least two sides to every story, and USA320Pilot usually posts one side, or spends his time explaining why one side is right, and the other is wrong. I will continue to post the "other" side of the story. I won't even claim to always be right, because I am not. But, I'll let the "informed" readers of these forums decide for themselves.

And by the way, it looks like I am not the only person able to so easily poke holes in USA320Pilots points or credibility.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

but you don't post the other side of the story.. you mostly just deride USA320. I'll admit that you do make a point every once and awhile, but mostly you just ridicule.. and you opened up this last point with snotty and misleading strawmen:

"What "difference" is USA320Pilot making? Certainly he is making no difference to the outcome of US Airways? If he did have an impact, US Airways would have been merged with UAL over 3 years ago

And you define "constructive" as criticizing my criticism?"

This was not a response to the inquiry or points in the quote that you cited. You constructed an argument that was not made. I mean, we all do this stuff.. but I'd certainly appreciate your posts much more, if you'd put more of the "other side" in them and less of these rhetorical cheap shots.

 

[Rico]

I do not know about everyone else, but I am getting kinda tired of outsiders (that is... people who do not either work for, or the passengers that fly upon our Airline). coming on here and telling us "how things are", and how we are going to fail for months now.

Fact is, you are welcome to your opinion, but since you are not a employee or passenger, it really is irrelevant. The reason is because it is easy to sit on the sidelines and shout names at the players, but a whole other thing to be on the feild and playing to win.

In Fact, I have seen that most of the time, it is more of a personal agenda that such people have, that feel that whatever they can do to talk us down, to stir things up, to see us fail is "A-OK". Well, it is not, besides you wasting your time, you are going to look like an even bigger dolt as we continue to prove you wrong.

To those who would like to express support, thank you very much. I, and everyone here appreciate it.

But if you are the in the other group, and are looking for personal gain or some form of personal satisfaction from US Airways not making it. Then I am REAL glad to disappoint you so far, and even moreso as time goes by.

 

[funguy2]

RowUnderDCA:

I was responding to usflyboi's assertion: "At least he [USA320Pilot] has enough information in his post to make a difference...."

What, I can't ask what the difference he has made is?

You are right, sometimes I am a little harsh on USA320Pilot, and perhaps his supporters. I find their tone and content very often condescending. I get tired of the spin, spin, spin, such that eventually it makes me not a "funguy" on this board.

 

[firstamendment]

I do not know about everyone else, but I am getting kinda tired of outsiders (that is... people who do not either work for, or the passengers that fly upon our Airline). coming on here and telling us "how things are", and how we are going to fail for months now.

Fact is, you are welcome to your opinion, but since you are not a employee or passenger, it really is irrelevant. The reason is because it is easy to sit on the sidelines and shout names at the players, but a whole other thing to be on the feild and playing to win.

In Fact, I have seen that most of the time, it is more of a personal agenda that such people have, that feel that whatever they can do to talk us down, to stir things up, to see us fail is "A-OK". Well, it is not, besides you wasting your time, you are going to look like an even bigger dolt as we continue to prove you wrong.

To those who would like to express support, thank you very much. I, and everyone here appreciate it.











Rico

The more I read your post, the more I agree. You know, I am in no way ignorant to the financial situation of U and God knows I have said for years that the stronger airlines as well as Delta are making a concerted effort to kill off U, if WE as US Airways employees fail to stop the tide of pessimism, those wishing for our demise will succede sooner than later. Now before everyone says I am crazy, the "legacy" carriers are just as guilty for their years of trying to kill off the lcc's.

NO OTHER AIRLINE CAN SAVE US. ONLY US!!

But if you are the in the other group, and are looking for personal gain or some form of personal satisfaction from US Airways not making it.  Then I am REAL glad to disappoint you so far, and even moreso as time goes by.

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