USAir757 & magsau,
You both make basically the same point - pilot's must balance
known risks on a daily basis to keep overall risk as low as possible.
Admittedly, I used extreme examples to make a point - after all, leaving the airplane at the gate
is the safest decision possible. Unfortunately, the aviation industry would come to a halt.
So pilots do what they're paid to do - balance risks to arrive at an acceptable tradeoff - a risk/reward decision if you like.
A less extreme example:
Using balanced T/O thrust (flex, reduced, etc) uses extra runway to allow lower engine wear & tear - an economic benefit. Until the amount of extra runway exceeds the maximum reduction allowed, you're "tricking" the airplane into performing as if it's at maximum T/O weight for that runway - reducing the margin of safety. Yet pilots use reduced T/O thrust daily to obtain economic benefit for their company.
Another mundane example is fuel tankering. Depending somewhat on the situation, the safest choice would probaly be to not tanker - better T/O and landing margins. Yet we tanker daily for an economic benefit, trading a small margin of safety for money.
You both know that the FAA is famous for safety trade-offs, usually under pressure from industry concerning cost. Likewise, we pilots are called on to make trade-offs on a daily basis. That's why they pay us the big bucks.
All I know at this point - from NTSB reports - is that:
1 - The pilots guidance showed them legal to land on that runway that night.
2 - For some reason undetermined at this point, the T/R's didn't deploy till well down the runway.
3 - The NTSB is trying to determine why the deceleration rate was low given the brake pressure applied by autobrakes then manual braking.
4 - The airplane ran off the end of the runway and an innocent bystander was killed.
I'll leave you with a question I touched on in my last post. If you ask any Captain who has just landed on a relatively short, contaminated runway
exactly what the margin between stopping distance and runway length was, would they be able to tell you? My guess would be "No", yet they just landed.
You'll note that I have neither praised nor condemned these pilots. The time for that will come once all the facts are in. I suspect that, barring finding some mechanical fault, this will end up being pilot error.
Even if that's the case, I personally find it much more productive to learn from their mistake than gloat at their misfortune.
Jim
ps - USAir757, you're right - without speculation there wouldn't be anything to read on these boards
