Potential New Routes

[WorldTraveler]

These types of requirements have been spelled out in previous divestitures so there is not any guessing on what has been required in the past.
What happened in the past is not an indication of what will happen in the future but it does say that there have been requirements about arm-length separation between entities involved in divestitures and that standard, non-punitive interline relationships must be maintained, and perhaps preferential treatment (just as inclusion in the frequent flyer program) might be required. AA-US agreed to preferential terms for PHL-LHR.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-764_en.htm

 

[zethya]

These types of requirements have been spelled out in previous divestitures so there is not any guessing on what has been required in the past.
What happened in the past is not an indication of what will happen in the future but it does say that there have been requirements about arm-length separation between entities involved in divestitures and that standard, non-punitive interline relationships must be maintained, and perhaps preferential treatment (just as inclusion in the frequent flyer program) might be required. AA-US agreed to preferential terms for PHL-LHR.

http://europa.eu/rap...P-13-764_en.htm

All the above reference (which was the basis for my original post) does is confirm my statements that AA has committed to provide FEED to the new entrant - "Furthermore, the parties, supported by their joint venture partners of the Transatlantic Joint Business, committed to entering into special feed traffic agreements with the likely entrant airline." I really don't know why you're throwing all of the peripheral JV material into the simple matter of what's pretty obvious, AA has committed to provide Hub connecting traffic to the new entrant. How they do it obviously is an open question. I mean let's face it, DL is certainly not going after this route, particularly with the VA JV at JFK. On the other hand, DL has shown over and over with their aggressiveness that they will try just about anything to stymie the competition, so I wouldn't be surprised. It'll likely be a OW carrier, which I'd bet the EU has already identified. Another interesting incentive for the new entrant is that AA has offered to grandfather the slots after some (unidentified) period.

 

[WorldTraveler]

The EU does not have the right to choose the carrier that will obtain the new route, in part because the US DOT and DOJ have not ruled on the merger and it is likely they will also have conditions in order to approve the merger in the USA, and likely a lot more conditions.

The grandfathering is the same condition that was essentially required with the MIA/DFW/BOS divestitures in the AA/BA JV.

"stymie" the competition? You mean any competition should just roll over and let someone else take what they want? Any particular examples you would like to cite?

 

[FWAAA]

Let's see Delta can make PIT CDG work but US/AA can't make PIT MAD work on a 757? It's not about the hub - it's about taking advantage of opportunities.

Madrid isn't Paris. How many nonstop flights are there every day from the USA to Paris compared to the number from USA to MAD? Without looking and without counting them, I'm certain that Paris flights outnumber MAD flights by at least two to one.

I think you overestimate the importance of the IB MAD hub to AA. Additionally, I can see that you overestimate the relative importance of PIT. It's a medium-sized city that used to have a hub.

My guess is that new AA starts PIT-LHR long before it begins PIT-MAD. And I don't think PIT-LHR is very likely. If it was, then BA would already be flying it (note how many BA flights there are to London from cities that aren't AA hubs and thus have no AA feed).

If new AA begins any non-hub airport to MAD, my guess would be IAD, to take advantage of all the US frequent flyers in the NoVA region. New AA wil be big at DCA, and since you can't fly to Europe from DCA, the choice is to connect to PHL or JFK or CLT or fly nonstop from IAD. BA has long flown nonstop to IAD, without AA feed, so perhaps new AA could fly IAD-MAD if there is sufficient O&D plus MAD connections.

 

[FWAAA]

I know that AA/US are giving up a LHR-PHL slot, but will they increase the number of flights between PHL-LHR? Such as a AM departure EB.

They had to let another airline compete on the PHL-LHR route thus giving up a slot. That still leaves 2 BA flights. Say BA swaps some slots for the AM flight from another route that they are sitting on. AA/BA are running hourly between JFK-LHR, but I not saying going to that extreme, just adding more for connection purposes to Europe. Losing *A leaves many gray areas in Europe. With 2 flights from PHL to LHR, the O/D fills that up leaving no connecting space.

No, AA did not agree t give up a PHL-LHR flight. AA agreed to make available a suitable LHR slot pair to enable a competitor to fly PHL-LHR. if anything, new AA will likely increase LHR service from PHL, not reduce it. Nothing in the EU approval requires that new AA/BA reduce LHR flights from PHL.

 

[gizmo_sc]

EU announces that US/AA will have to give up one PHL LHR SLOT:

http://boardingarea.com/thewanderingaramean/2013/07/cuts-american-airlinesus-airways-merger/

 

[FWAAA]

EU announces that US/AA will have to give up one PHL LHR SLOT:

http://boardingarea....airways-merger/

That blogger has no idea what he's talking about. Apparently, he read the Philly Enquirer instead of the EU press release.

The Enquirer reporter was first to proclaim a couple weeks ago that new AA would have to give up one PHL-LHR slot. I can understand a reporter making up facts to fill in their story, but a well-known travel blogger? Seth is making it up as he goes along.

 

[tadjr]

US scheduling is famous for its "Flex" flights. Service that runs only on certain days of the week. There may be some cities that don't get 7 days a week service, but If there is money to be made, it's possible a 3X or 4X a week service. What are the possibilities of LGW service being reinstated to some places if they were making money and it's not restricted with any government limitations? I know CLT-LGW was moved to LHR to take advantage of the business travel connections, but if CLT-LGW or PHL-LGW were making money (and I don't know if they were), but I could see them added. There weren't as many connections as via LHR, but with BA/AA being in the JV, getting locals on both ends, it is a possibility. Also, I can see CLT-MAN being added as well as CLT-MAD year round and PHL-BCN year round. Also with Air Berlin being in Oneworld, I could see a PHL-DUS or PHL-TXL being added to connect to beyond traffic. I think it's interesting too that when people are talking about US cities to Europe, everyone seems to forget that the current AA FF's in those cities or connecting cities will be added to the mix. US doesn't have the feed to go to XXX. Well, in some instances the "AA FF's" might be taking DL or UA or someone else that given the option of a connection on AA will influence their decision. I know SOME of you will say, that will never happen because it will be crappy US service, but it will be AA service (crappy or not ymmv). Oneworld FF miles WILL make a difference to many people.

 

[nycbusdriver]

Also, I can see CLT-MAN being added as well as CLT-MAD year round and PHL-BCN year round.

I doubt there will ever be CLT-MAN. PHL-MAN is "subsidized" by some British firm that has need for that city pair and guarantees a certain amount of revenue every flight. They have no need to go to CLT.

Year round CLT-MAD is very likely due to the Iberia hub and the OneWorld connecting opportunities.

Year-round PHL-BCN is problematic. The summer fills the airplanes with Mediterranean cruise customers. The cruises stop operating...the customers go away. There is no winter market sufficient for profits for BCN from PHL.

 

[tadjr]

Year-round PHL-BCN is problematic. The summer fills the airplanes with Mediterranean cruise customers. The cruises stop operating...the customers go away. There is no winter market sufficient for profits for BCN from PHL.

Just thought with BCN having IB connections to major European cities, it might have enough traffic to serve as a valid connecting point replacing something like MUC with onward connections. I know it isn't going to be a major city for O&D once the cruises leave, but didn't know if there was enough local and connecting to make it work year round?

 

[FWAAA]

Just thought with BCN having IB connections to major European cities, it might have enough traffic to serve as a valid connecting point replacing something like MUC with onward connections. I know it isn't going to be a major city for O&D once the cruises leave, but didn't know if there was enough local and connecting to make it work year round?

From BCN, Iberia flies to MAD. A regional sub flies to four other small cities in Spain. BCN isn't a hub for IB - that's what MAD is for.

AA flies to BCN year-round from JFK and MIA, DL flies year-round from JFK and UA flies year-round from EWR. Delta flies seasonally from ATL. If ATL can't support year-round service, then I don't see PHL or CLT supporting it either.

Year-round from PHL and CLT to MAD? Sure, with all the IB connections available (and the absence of Oneworld connections from FRA).

I don't see any airline adding service to LGW from the USA, least of all new AA. LHR is where it's at. It's where the O&D from this side of the ocean wants to go and it's where nearly all the connections are available. Yes, BA still flies LGW to MCO, but that's almost 100% low-budget vacationers from London to see the mouse. LGW-TPA carries the British snowbirds to the west coast of Florida.

Crandall once said that the only reason that AA began service to all the second-tier cities in Europe in the 1980s was because he couldn't fly to LHR. That changed in 1991. In truth, the only reason that DL, CO, NW and US flew to LGW until 2008 was because they weren't permitted to fly to LHR but they desperately wanted to serve London. In March, 2008, nearly every LGW flight became a flight to LHR as they bought slots at LHR (or traded/borrowed from their alliance partners). US was the last to finally close shop at LGW, and new AA ain't going back.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

All the above reference (which was the basis for my original post) does is confirm my statements that AA has committed to provide FEED to the new entrant - "Furthermore, the parties, supported by their joint venture partners of the Transatlantic Joint Business, committed to entering into special feed traffic agreements with the likely entrant airline." I really don't know why you're throwing all of the peripheral JV material into the simple matter of what's pretty obvious, AA has committed to provide Hub connecting traffic to the new entrant. How they do it obviously is an open question. I mean let's face it, DL is certainly not going after this route, particularly with the VA JV at JFK. On the other hand, DL has shown over and over with their aggressiveness that they will try just about anything to stymie the competition, so I wouldn't be surprised. It'll likely be a OW carrier, which I'd bet the EU has already identified. Another interesting incentive for the new entrant is that AA has offered to grandfather the slots after some (unidentified) period.

Gee isn't this just referring to basic interlining?

 

[zethya]

I doubt there will ever be CLT-MAN. PHL-MAN is "subsidized" by some British firm that has need for that city pair and guarantees a certain amount of revenue every flight. They have no need to go to CLT.................................

I have never heard that. I do know the flight has been one of US's most profitable routes for years - primarily due to heavy year round cargo.

 

[tadjr]

From BCN, Iberia flies to MAD. A regional sub flies to four other small cities in Spain. BCN isn't a hub for IB - that's what MAD is for.

My bad. Haven't looked at an IB map in quite a while. Thought BCN still had IB routes. Vueling Codeshare possible?

 

[BuffaloJoe]

Can PHL handle a A380? Terminal wise?