Potential New Routes

[robbedagain]

phl will NOT be de hubbed in any way shape or form. scott kirby and the mgmt have made clear that phl will be just as important as clt just bec us is giving up 1 slot pair btwn phl n lhr does not mean the new aa will de hub phl which is a profitable hub and can easily work as close to jfk ewr n lga in similar way that ua has made ewr n iad work phl will continue to be a hub

 

[WorldTraveler]

IF you are correct and AA has agreed to give up the PHL-LHR slot AND future PHL-LHR service, then PHL is likely planned to be de-hubbed. On the other hand, AA (or BA) could divest one of their many other existing (active/dormant) slot pairs and transfer it to PHL-LHR for the new entry. In fact, a new entry would likely not even accept the route with the current PHL-LHR slot, due to its 10AM LHR arrival time. There is no provision in the EU edict that the number of PHL-LHR flights be reduced, just that AA provide a new entry (competitor) with a slot pair to be used for PHL-LHR. Consequently, even if US/AA did give the existing PHL-LHR slot to an accepting competitor, there is no requirement (and there could not be), which prevents AA or BA from adding new PHL-LHR flights, either via internal or BA-AA slot transfers. Even if there was a decision to de-hub PHL, it's very unlikely that AA would not have at least 1 LHR flight on its own metal to supplement the O&D BA flights.

Your logic doesn't work. Just because AA/US has to divest a slot at PHL doesn't mean the hub is in danger. The slot can and will come from anywhere in AA's system and might even come from BA depending on the negotiations between AA/US and BA. Remember that US' departure from Star and the addition to oneworld is a win for BA.

Remember also that AA/BA gave up the slot which US is now using for its CLT-LHR service. DL operated MIA-LHR service and then relinquished the slot that US is now using. Net/net new AA and BA are at the same slot position as they were after the JV was announced and DL added its BOS service.

 

[X-U]

Fly PIT to China, the cargo for American Eagle, Dick's Sporting Goods et al should be enough to pay for it.

 

[WorldTraveler]

looks like África should not be left off the list.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11998403/1/american-airlines-contemplates-miami-africa-flights.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

 

[zethya]

Your logic doesn't work. Just because AA/US has to divest a slot at PHL doesn't mean the hub is in danger. The slot can and will come from anywhere in AA's system and might even come from BA depending on the negotiations between AA/US and BA. Remember that US' departure from Star and the addition to oneworld is a win for BA.

Remember also that AA/BA gave up the slot which US is now using for its CLT-LHR service. DL operated MIA-LHR service and then relinquished the slot that US is now using. Net/net new AA and BA are at the same slot position as they were after the JV was announced and DL added its BOS service.

You obviously didn't read the entire sentence, or in fact the entire content of the post: ........ "IF you are correct and AA has agreed to give up the PHL-LHR slot AND future PHL-LHR service, then PHL is likely planned to be de-hubbed." Notice the "AND".

 

[dash8roa]

So what.l BOS has all those flights and more, this summer we have 2x DUB (EI), 2x FRA (LH), 6x LHR (BA, DL, VS), 1x MAD (IB), 3x CDG (AA, AF, DL), and FCO (AZ). Also add 2X AMS (DL), 1x MUC (LH) and 1x ZRH (LX), SNN (EI) JAL to NRT, and TK starting IST next year, LY is considering TLV and apparently QR will also be coming. What's your point? Those routes from CLT are mostly connections, US runs their aircraft in a high density and low premium configuration, and their revenue per departure is considerably lower than AA or DL. Besides, how many of those you listed are ion 757 or 762 aircraft? The 332 is good, 333 is okay but the 762 and 757 US flies are the pits.

Josh

The 757's and 767's are fine, I have flown them across the pond many times and for some European cities, they are the perfect size. LIS,AMS,and VCE are perfect for the 757 and 767. Another city in Europe which seems to be overlooked is Naples Italy. With Naples having a metro area population of almost 3 million along with a sizable group of Neapolitans in the northeast United States it would have some appeal to Italians living in the southern part of Italy and in the states.
Other eastern European cities such as Prague, Budapest could be a good addition, perhaps each city splitting weekly flights, I.E. 4 to Prague and 3 to Budapest. Might help to gauge the demand of both cities.
I wonder how close the 767's are to reaching the cycle limit for heavy checks?

 

[zethya]

Here are a couple of references which seem to support my theory that the slot pair to be divested may not be PHL-LHR. Also, note the last reference, which contains the interesting tid bit that AA has agreed to provide FEED to the new entry. This also supports my theory that it might be someone like QR, which should be in OW within the next few months.
http://blogs.barrons...od=yahoobarrons
http://finance.yahoo...-143304035.html
http://www.reuters.c...ingsNews&rpc=43

 

[700UW]

The 767s are not time limited, US has been doing the aging aircraft program on them.

 

[cltrat]

The 767s are not time limited, US has been doing the aging aircraft program on them.

they need to do the retirement program on them. They are all pos.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Here are a couple of references which seem to support my theory that the slot pair to be divested may not be PHL-LHR. Also, note the last reference, which contains the interesting tid bit that AA has agreed to provide FEED to the new entry. This also supports my theory that it might be someone like QR, which should be in OW within the next few months.
http://blogs.barrons...od=yahoobarrons
http://finance.yahoo...-143304035.html
http://www.reuters.c...ingsNews&rpc=43

it is highly doubtful that divestitures would be allowed to an entity that could at all benefit from a relationship with AA. The divestitures associated with the slot deal as well as with UA's merger specifically ensured there were fences between the slot recipient and the party that had to divest. The requirement to provides feed means that AA/US/BA cannot terminate their ticketing agreement or bias their revenue management systems to not effectively provide feed to the slot recipient. Global airlines have interline passenger agreements and they existed long before codeshares and alliances. That is all this requirement involves.

 

[strangiatotheme]

Fly PIT to China, the cargo for American Eagle, Dick's Sporting Goods et al should be enough to pay for it.

There's no way that underfloor freight can even come close to subsidizing a flight except in very, very special cases. Especially in a market that has almost no local passenger traffic whatsoever. Freight is more like icing on the cake than the basis for flying a route.

 

[Jester]

There's no way that underfloor freight can even come close to subsidizing a flight except in very, very special cases. Especially in a market that has almost no local passenger traffic whatsoever. Freight is more like icing on the cake than the basis for flying a route.

Yeah, I think Scott Kirby addressed this issue in a very recent company newsletter to employees. I think he mentioned the efficiency of freight shippers and the costs of flying aircraft. Although I would like to see a once or twice a week upgrade of the A320 PHX-ANC flight to a B757, as we are typically so weight restricted we end-up with a back log of cargo refused.

 

[strangiatotheme]

Yeah, I think Scott Kirby addressed this issue in a very recent company newsletter to employees. I think he mentioned the efficiency of freight shippers and the costs of flying aircraft. Although I would like to see a once or twice a week upgrade of the A320 PHX-ANC flight to a B757, as we are typically so weight restricted we end-up with a back log of cargo refused.

I remember when we sent 757s to ANC for a month and it was still weight restricted. There's no end to the cargo on that route, and yet they're still reluctant to upgauge beyond an A320 in peak season.

PHX-MEX is another route where freight can roll for days, although it's volume related, not weight. I'm not sure if they can't accept shipments at certain times of the day there but I've noticed that if it misses the AM flight, it rolls over to the next day - the PM flight only goes with bags. This past winter we refused the same 4 carts of mail and freight probably 3 days in a row before they finally went out.

 

[BuffaloJoe]

What ever happened to the PHL-ANC flights? Were they restricted by weight often?

 

[zethya]

....... The requirement to provides feed means that AA/US/BA cannot terminate their ticketing agreement or bias their revenue management systems to not effectively provide feed to the slot recipient............

IMO, you're GUESSING.