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United, US Airways fly closer to merger
Combined carrier is expected to be based in Chicago, but top leaders would
come from smaller airline
By Julie Johnsson
Tribune reporter
May 11, 2008
United Airlines is closing in on a merger with US Airways, sources say, after
being spurned by Continental Airlines and Delta Air Lines.
The combined carrier would be headquartered in Chicago, United's base and
home to its largest airport hub, said a person familiar with the negotiations.
But United executives aren't expected to run the carrier, which would be the
nation's second largest, slightly smaller than the proposed Delta-Northwest
Airlines tie-up announced last month. Top duties are likely to be assumed by
US Airways Chief Executive Doug Parker and its president, Scott Kirby, said
people close to the Phoenix-based carrier.
Others caution that the management team's makeup and a host of other issues
have yet to be sorted out and that an announcement isn't imminent.
The carriers have been down this path before. United and US Airways explored
a merger in 1995 and went so far as announcing a deal in 2000, only to
shelve it 14 months later amid a slowing economy and opposition from labor and
regulatory officials.
As in 2000, United and US Airways are expected to shed assets in the
Washington, D.C., market, where overlapping operations are likeliest to raise
antitrust concerns. United is the dominant carrier at Washington Dulles
International Airport; US Airways is the largest at capacity-constrained Reagan National
Airport.
AirTran, JetBlue and Virgin America officials all say they would be in the
market for landing rights and gates that the carriers would divest at Reagan
National and other East Coast strongholds if a merger were consummated.
"There are some places we're keeping a very close eye on," said David Cush,
president and CEO of San Francisco-based Virgin America, an upstart airline
aimed at business travelers that plans to rapidly expand its cross-country
routes. "If a deal is proposed, we'll get our wish list together."
United and other carriers are contemplating industry-changing consolidation
amid a credit crisis, lower consumer spending and record-high fuel prices. In
addition to the Delta-Northwest merger, American Airlines is negotiating an
alliance with Continental that would enable the carriers to sell tickets on
each other's flights.
All airlines are struggling to cope with the sharp industry downturn. But
the pressure is especially keen for United CEO Glenn Tilton, whose airline's
performance badly trailed its peers during the first quarter and who hasn't
been able to deliver a deal to shareholders, despite being the industry's most
vocal proponent of consolidation.
What's more, United is projected to suffer the deepest 2008 losses in the
industry, an estimated $10.71 per share, at the current oil prices, according
to a research report published Friday by analyst Kevin Crissey of UBS
Investment Research.
The airline with the second-largest projected loss? US Airways, which
Crissey estimates will lose $10.16 per share. Parker also has advocated
consolidation and last year failed in an attempted hostile buyout of Delta.
Combining with US Airways would provide United with a $5.3 billion cash
cushion, potential cost-saving synergies of at least $1.5 billion and the means
for even more drastic cuts if needed, like parking the two carriers' 111-plane
fleet of aging Boeing 737-300 jets, sources said.
Sources expect any merger to include capital from strategic investors, which
could include global alliance partners or a Middle East-based sovereign
fund. While United planned to borrow to fund its $12 billion buyout of US Airways
in 2000, this time executives want a deal that would strengthen its balance
sheet.
But some question whether those gains would offset a fuel bill that would
rise as much as $6 billion in 2008 for the combined carriers, or demands by
unions at United and US Airways to raise their wages, the lowest among major
airlines, up to the industry average.
Jake Brace, United Airlines' executive vice president and chief financial
officer, said mergers will work only if they are accompanied by a major
revamping of airline operations.
"Consolidation by itself is not the solution. The industry will need to do
many things to create business plans that work in this environment," said
Brace, who declined to comment on any talk of a merger. US Airways also would not
comment.
Even so, many longtime aviation observers are skeptical that the
megacarriers formed by combining Delta with Northwest and United with US Airways would
be stronger and more efficient than the carriers operating as stand-alone
companies.
"There are [few] easy answers for an airline in United's situation, but a
merger just isn't one of them," said Hubert Horan, a Phoenix-based aviation
consultant.
Horan thinks that a United-US Airways linkup may find it more difficult to
navigate the industry's troublesome landscape. He thinks the costs of
combining computers, reservation systems and fleets could wipe out much of the
potential cost savings. There's also the possibility of potential disruptions that
could be triggered by trying to integrate United's pilots with their
balkanized counterparts at US Airways.
"The last thing you need, especially heading into a recession and with fuel
volatility, is to spend $1 billion of cash reserves that are already
dwindling … on what would be the most hellaciously complex merger in aviation
history," Horan said. "It's like dropping a gasoline-soaked bomb on six union
groups."
_jjohnsson@tribune.com_ (mailto:jjohnsson@tribune.com)