More AA gates coming in LAX

[WorldTraveler]

I don't recall ever reading anything about AA's position being weak to anywhere from LAX EXCEPT Asia and it is factually correct that DL and UA both get more Asia and west coast revenue to Asia than AA does.

No one said that the world revolves around DL.

DL will fly far more capacity nonstop to MCO than it has filled its ATL flights with. That is a fact. DL's growth in MCO to Brazil will impact other competitors. Azul chose not to start MCO-GRU while JJ is adding more capacity. Both of those will impact AA which is the largest carrier from MCO and Florida to Latin America and Brazil is the largest destination of Latin Americans. Whether LAX and MCO-Brazil is related is not known to me. But I have repeatedly noted that competitive strategies don't stand alone.

All of the gates in the world at LAX or any other airport doesn't mean that any carrier can profitably succeed in those markets - AA has been flying LAX-NRT for a very long time and has posted lower average fares than DL or UA - or that other carriers won't enact other strategies in other markets.

AA will grow at LAX. The competitive impact of AA's growth is absolutely tied to the success that other carriers might have in gaining more space, how well each carrier uses their assets in the local market which is what this is really all about, and how well each carrier does in executing their strategic objectives.

btw, I take it you realize that AAL was downgraded while more than one analyst is noting that UA is improving its financial and operational performance. I have repeatedly noted that AA and UA often have ups at the expense of the other and lose when the other starts to gain.

Even with a smaller percentage of seats at LAX, UA has not given up local market share. They are doing a good job of using their assets to compete in the local market. DL, in contrast, is growing at LAX.

It is also worth noting that DL's willingness to grow at LAX might be a signal to SEA that SEA needs to approve a plan to allow DL to continue to grow by adding more flights. Like at LAX, DL in SEA is nearing gate saturation but they have said there will be a pad operation at SEA by the summer of 2016 and DL is also upgrading several markets to larger aircraft increasing seats in the market. Given that SEA and SFO are both capable of competing for flow traffic thruout the west, AA still has the task of trying to compete for both the local and west coast market which DL and UA can spread over other hubs, esp. to/from Asia which is AA's largest strategic growth need on the west coast.

It is far from clear how any carrier will fare or what advantage they will have in 5 years or more.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Some of these WT quotes are just too good to ignore.
 

No one said that the world revolves around DL.

It is also worth noting that DL's willingness to grow at LAX might be a signal to SEA that SEA needs to approve a plan to allow DL to continue to grow by adding more flights

LOL
 
(actually, I can't believe I read the whole 500 word diatribe ... smh)

 

[WorldTraveler]

you did read it.

The world doesn't revolve around DL.. .and neither does SEA.
But if SEA wants growth - or perhaps on top of it - DL needs some closure on how much SEA expansion DL can do.

Between SEA and LAX, DL is already the 2nd largest legacy carrier on the left coast.

DL clearly wants to grow in both markets.

AA wants to grow at LAX.

Both SEA and LAX have embraced the growth that has come their way from every carrier. Both are having to think more creatively in order to accommodate all of the growth desires.

Both will achieve their goals in their respective key markets.

The success each will have in achieving that growth and larger strategic objectives is what is entirely unknown at this point.

 

[Platinum Steve]

More observations from the non-aviation peanut gallery:
 
I don't get this deal.  Why would AA do this?  By my admittedly simple calculations and very limited knowledge, AA currently has:
 
TBIT - 4 gates (priority - not exclusive)
T4 - 14 gates (exclusive)
T6 - 4 gates (exclusive - but this lease is almost up)
Nest - 9 gates (used to be 10, which used to be 12 before they moved to the Nest) (exclusive - but who else would want them?)
 
That's 31 gates.
 
If I read these rumors (and that's really what they are, I know), then AA will have the following:
 
TBIT - 5 gates (priority)
T4 - 15 gates (priority)
T5 - 13 gates (priority)
 
Gone are the T6 gates and the Nest.  What's left are 33 gates. 
 
So, that's an increase of 2 gates plus the elimination of those busses out to the Nest.  And, in exchange for these two gates and no more busses, AA is giving up their hangar and the adjoining property, their exclusive rights to T4, and their rights to the Nest.
 
But it's really not that good a deal, because a) to make the deal work for DL (they aren't going to take less gates than they have now), some airlines that are in T3 (and maybe even T2) now will have to move.  There's no where for them to go but T6.  (That pretty much guarantees that those 4 T6 gates that AA has now are goners, doesn't it?)  There's also been talk here that Alaska is going to move to T5 to be closer to AA (and to free up gates in T6, I'd wager).  Well there goes 4-5 of those T5 gates that AA just picked up.  So, now the gate count for AA is lower than before this started.  How is that a win for them?  Why do this deal?
 
But it gets worse.  Right now DL is landlocked at T5/T6.  They have no where else to grow.  (Sorry, WT.  They don't.)  By doing this deal, DL is freed from their trap.  (I don't know why WT isn't claiming this plan as a masterstroke by DL.  It's a full-fledged get-out-of-jail-free card for them.)  By swapping the Nest for T5, AA is giving their most potent competitor an out.  Right now, there's a ceiling on how much threat DL really is long-term.  Moving them to the north side takes that ceiling away.  Again, why would they do this deal?

If the T6 gates stay with AA and Alaska stays in T6, then this starts to make more sense, but that's not how it appears to be going.  If there are more TBIT gates coming once the full mid-field terminal is done, then that makes more sense, as well.  But nothing said so far indicates that any of this is happening.  From my viewpoint, all that AA is getting out of this is no more busses to the Nest.  That's it.  And they are giving up a ton of strategic, contractual, and physical advantages to do it.  So what am I missing here? 

 

[WorldTraveler]

More observations from the non-aviation peanut gallery:
 
I don't get this deal.  Why would AA do this?  By my admittedly simple calculations and very limited knowledge, AA currently has:
 
TBIT - 4 gates (priority - not exclusive)
T4 - 14 gates (exclusive)
T6 - 4 gates (exclusive - but this lease is almost up)
Nest - 9 gates (used to be 10, which used to be 12 before they moved to the Nest) (exclusive - but who else would want them?)
 
That's 31 gates.
 
If I read these rumors (and that's really what they are, I know), then AA will have the following:
 
TBIT - 5 gates (priority)
T4 - 15 gates (priority)
T5 - 13 gates (priority)
 
Gone are the T6 gates and the Nest.  What's left are 33 gates. 
 
So, that's an increase of 2 gates plus the elimination of those busses out to the Nest.  And, in exchange for these two gates and no more busses, AA is giving up their hangar and the adjoining property, their exclusive rights to T4, and their rights to the Nest.
 
But it's really not that good a deal, because a) to make the deal work for DL (they aren't going to take less gates than they have now), some airlines that are in T3 (and maybe even T2) now will have to move.  There's no where for them to go but T6.  (That pretty much guarantees that those 4 T6 gates that AA has now are goners, doesn't it?)  There's also been talk here that Alaska is going to move to T5 to be closer to AA (and to free up gates in T6, I'd wager).  Well there goes 4-5 of those T5 gates that AA just picked up.  So, now the gate count for AA is lower than before this started.  How is that a win for them?  Why do this deal?
 
But it gets worse.  Right now DL is landlocked at T5/T6.  They have no where else to grow.  (Sorry, WT.  They don't.)  By doing this deal, DL is freed from their trap.  (I don't know why WT isn't claiming this plan as a masterstroke by DL.  It's a full-fledged get-out-of-jail-free card for them.)  By swapping the Nest for T5, AA is giving their most potent competitor an out.  Right now, there's a ceiling on how much threat DL really is long-term.  Moving them to the north side takes that ceiling away.  Again, why would they do this deal?

If the T6 gates stay with AA and Alaska stays in T6, then this starts to make more sense, but that's not how it appears to be going.  If there are more TBIT gates coming once the full mid-field terminal is done, then that makes more sense, as well.  But nothing said so far indicates that any of this is happening.  From my viewpoint, all that AA is getting out of this is no more busses to the Nest.  That's it.  And they are giving up a ton of strategic, contractual, and physical advantages to do it.  So what am I missing here?

I think you got it pretty close to right, Steve, and you also validate my point that AA is simply reshuffling its vast real estate empire at LAX for something that is a whole lot more user friendly.

and you ARE right about DL.

The whole reason why there is ANY incentive for DL to move is because they will gain space in the process. We really have no idea how many gates DL could gain but DL isn't known for rolling over and playing dead for anyone.

If DL moves it is because they want LAX to be able to provide them with enough gates to be able to remain on par with AA in terms of growth capacity and potentially local market revenue. Whether that translates into an equal number of gates is immaterial since based on actual current DOT data, UA has not given up any local market share to AA while DL has grown its share while DL has grown its share - mostly at UA's expense.

Based on seats, DL has moved up to having the 2nd largest number of seats. Seat data is available in the future but DOT revenue data lags by about six months. DOT revenue data for this past summer is not available yet.

AA is at the number 1 position in terms of local revenue but other carriers are growing and in the case of UA they aren't giving up share to AA. They are using their assets to focus on the local market.

DL is focusing on increasing capacity via larger gauge. DL already has 8% more seats for sale for next summer than they did this summer. AA's growth - while clearly not final - has 2%. UA is down 14%.

It's also worth noting that based on current schedules, DL by next summer will have the largest number of seats per flight of all large jet carriers at LAX for legacies (including Alaska and LCCs). DL is simply pushing 12 seats more per flight than AA and 20 seats/flight more than UA. It is not hard to see how DL continues to grow when it is increasing gauge. By next summer just based on current schedules, DL is converting 14 large RJs flights to mainline; the CR9/E175 will be the smallest aircraft for DL at LAX. CR7s are gone.

all of this talk of what will happen in the future is repeatedly disconnected from what is happening RIGHT now. DL IS gaining share from UA. AA is NOT gaining share from UA but instead AA's combined share at LAX is no different than what it was before the merger.

Gates aren't making any difference because AA has more of them now and it isn't translating into increasing share.

Maybe that will start changing but right now the actual picture is that AA even with its gate advantage is not growing above what the merger provided.

To somehow think that a bunch of new gates are going to turn something around that the merger hasn't been able to do (stop a competitor's growth) is more than a stretch.

 

[MAH4546]

We'll be hearing about more LAX international expansion shortly, possibly year's end, including new long-haul flying, once again cementing AA's position as LAX's largest airline and international carrier. 
 
In addition, LAX-AKL is looking like pretty much a given from W16. 
 
While it not reflected in S16 schedules, all CRJ-200 flying at LAX will be discontinued in favor of ERJ-175s as the Skywest contract winds down. I believe this will be happening in April. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

again, no one is arguing that AA is going to grow. AA might even add some additional flights.

But no one has yet to prove that AA is going to gain an advantage over other carriers.

Will AA add AKL? maybe. but if other carriers successfully add PEK because they have stronger alliance partners there while AA adds AKL, then AA is just growing its activity along with other carriers.

and of course AA is eliminating 50 seaters... DL is reducing large RJs. DL is doing the same thing but has ALREADY moved past 50 seaters to large RJs.

the notion that has repeatedly been presented that AA alone will be able to grow is simply not happening in real life.

Good for AA for growing LAX. We knew that would happen. The economics favor it.

The real question is who else will grow LAX and what the competitive landscape will look like when everyone executes their own growth plans

as for the title of "LAX largest int'l airline" that comes down right now to just 89 seats/day. That is not a huge buffer and it could easily fall when DL adds LAX-MEX service which it says it will do. If AA and DL each add equal numbers of long-haul int'l seats, then the advantage just isn't there. If DL adds back LAX-LHR, then the calculation gets even more confusing.

and we still haven't seen a resolution with AA's plans to add LAX-HND.

 

[700UW]

 
http://www.wsj.com/articles/american-airlines-lands-on-l-a-times-front-page-1444070877

 

[topDawg]

 
WELL,.....there it is.        "Top 5 carriers by seats/per day...is  AA" (who continually Expands in LAX, while Del-DUH slowly RETREATS) !
 
Methinks this is very similiar to AA + DL  in DFW(only difference is that Del-DUH's retreat from LAX is at a slower pace than at DFW)
AND I honestly DO NOT thinks it bodes well for Del-DUH (as it applies to sea, in this case) to have jettisoned AA so as not to be able to rebook on each other, AS's newest version of a international hook-up with Icelandic, AS's even closer ties with AA.
 
You've got a better chance of seeing JESUS, before Del-DUH EVER becomes the # 1 carrier out of SEA !
'Should' it ever become necessary for AS to defend it's true # 1 spot out of sea, and I Never see that happening, AA will gladly be there to lend AS....all the assistance it needs !
Del-DUH's sweet 'corn pone' southern charm doesn't seem to resonate well in the west coast, unless you're bound for HOT-LANTA, MINNY or DEE-troit !

Lol. 
 
It is amazing to me that you can't do simple math.(also sad, I hope to God you have nothing to do with aircraft.) 
 
Delta is up 20-30% year over year. 
 
So being up 20-30% to you is getting smaller? Math, learn how to do it. You keep posting this and it just makes you look more and more foolish. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

and some basic math also would help reveal that AA's market share divided by the number of gates it has is not as favorable as it is for other carriers.

All of those gates are supposed to translate into an advantage.

 

[700UW]

Look a new WT fabricated fact.

Gates and seats, SMH.

 

[WorldTraveler]

If a carrier doesn't use gates at an airport terminal for boarding passengers, what else are they there for?

 

[wings396]

In most cases, you would want to obtain additional gates prior to adding flights. Give it some time before knocking every move made by AA. I'm sure that you realize that the full benefits of the merger haven't kicked in yet. Let's wait until a full integration takes place, and see what adjustments are made. AA will have a pretty hefty ML fleet as well, and I'm sure that they have a good idea of how and where they're going to use it.

 

[WorldTraveler]

AA has had more gates for quite some time.

I am simply noting that other carriers push a whole lot more passengers and flights thru their gates than AA does. DL is turning 767s on transcon flights with twice the number of seats per flight in the same amount of time that AA is turning smaller aircraft.

AA has a hefty mainline fleet right now.

The only thing that might change at LAX for AA is that they will gain some mainline gates and be able to push more passengers thru each jetway at the terminal than they can on the Eagle pad.

The point is simply that accumulating gates should result in somewhat of a proportional relationship to local market share and passengers boarded. DL and WN both push more passengers per gate thru their facilities than AA does. DL's higher average fares - within a couple of percent of AA - gives DL an efficiency advantage which does offset a big chunk of AA's facility size advantage.

and DL's growth has been relatively easy because UA is shrinking and DL is picking up the majority of the share that UA is losing. That momentum will only accelerate as UA ends JFK service - where Dl is adding seats.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

and some basic math also would help reveal that AA's market share divided by the number of gates it has is not as favorable as it is for other carriers.

All of those gates are supposed to translate into an advantage.

Should this new aviation metric be marked as WTFF #-1267?
 
WTFF = WTs Fabricated Fact
 
I was going to say, you can't make this stuff up, but I'd be wrong.
 
I guess making up new metrics is due to the following:
 

I can assure you that I have more education and experience in the aviation specific issues involved here

 
Well, as long as DL wins.
 
 

DL is turning 767s on transcon flights .................

Remind us again: what kind of fares DL is attracting on their transcons?