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Mesa/aca Deal Could Involve Us Airways
- Thread starter USA320Pilot
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Cosmo
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- Aug 20, 2002
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Chip:Chip Munn said:
How many times are you going to flog this "dead horse"? With all due respect to ALPA's president, doesn't he work for one of United's competitors (Delta, I believe)? So why would you believe that he would have any detailed knowledge of United's plans? And where would he get that knowledge -- from United? No. From the United MEC? Not very likely. It is simply his opinion, to which he is of course entitled, but it is no more than that.
You really are a "one-trick pony". You have once again attempted to elevate somebody's opinion into yet another one of your anti-United "facts".
FlyingHippie
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- Jan 27, 2003
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Chip why post this stuff at all? It's clear to me that you know exactly what you are doing and the ultimate frenzy it will bring. It's kind of like a fly buzzing around your head and you take swat after swat but the thing just keeps annoying you. To put it mildly, it's time to bug off.
Cosmo
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Chip:
And while we're throwing around wild theories about what Mesa's potential purchase of ACA will or won't do for US Airways, please consider the following alternative scenario.
Let's assume Mesa completes the purchase of ACA. Ornstein then thinks to himself, "I've now got around 140 RJs in service or on order to feed United, but only a few dozen feeding US Airways. If I put all my effort with United, it will give me more leverage when the fee-per-departure rates are negotiated again." So he pulls his RJs from the US Airways operation.
At the same time, Mesa's move causes US Airways to come to the realization that, with or without Mesa, its two hubs in Pennsylvania can't handle the substantial future RJ growth that was implicit in the carrier's plan to return to profitability (and the very public dispute with the IAM regarding Airbus maintenance doesn't help either). PIT doesn't have the O&D to support it, and PHL doesn't have the runway expansion capability to support it. So while US Airways won't completely abandon those two cities, it does begin to shift flights to IAD to feed United's hub there, where the local O&D and runway expansion opportunities are much better. Eventually, this leads to a UCT/ICT, but it is the reborn United doing the buying (US Airways' IAD feed and the CLT hub), and US Airways subsequently disappears (at least from public view) as a separate entity.
Back to reality. Is the above likely to happen? Probably not, but IMHO it is no more implausible than your idea that Mesa will buy ACA and then take the combined company over to US Airways, totally ignoring Ornstein's public claims to the contrary. You'll have to do a lot more than again cite your "secret sources" or boldly claim (without any support) that "Time will tell, but unless something changes, I am dead on accurate" to convince me and most other readers of this thread that there is any substance to your theory.
And while we're throwing around wild theories about what Mesa's potential purchase of ACA will or won't do for US Airways, please consider the following alternative scenario.
Let's assume Mesa completes the purchase of ACA. Ornstein then thinks to himself, "I've now got around 140 RJs in service or on order to feed United, but only a few dozen feeding US Airways. If I put all my effort with United, it will give me more leverage when the fee-per-departure rates are negotiated again." So he pulls his RJs from the US Airways operation.
At the same time, Mesa's move causes US Airways to come to the realization that, with or without Mesa, its two hubs in Pennsylvania can't handle the substantial future RJ growth that was implicit in the carrier's plan to return to profitability (and the very public dispute with the IAM regarding Airbus maintenance doesn't help either). PIT doesn't have the O&D to support it, and PHL doesn't have the runway expansion capability to support it. So while US Airways won't completely abandon those two cities, it does begin to shift flights to IAD to feed United's hub there, where the local O&D and runway expansion opportunities are much better. Eventually, this leads to a UCT/ICT, but it is the reborn United doing the buying (US Airways' IAD feed and the CLT hub), and US Airways subsequently disappears (at least from public view) as a separate entity.
Back to reality. Is the above likely to happen? Probably not, but IMHO it is no more implausible than your idea that Mesa will buy ACA and then take the combined company over to US Airways, totally ignoring Ornstein's public claims to the contrary. You'll have to do a lot more than again cite your "secret sources" or boldly claim (without any support) that "Time will tell, but unless something changes, I am dead on accurate" to convince me and most other readers of this thread that there is any substance to your theory.
FlyingHippie
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- Jan 27, 2003
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Cosmo
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Here are two other statements in today's Washington Post story regarding Mesa's possible purchase of ACA that are worth noting:
1. "Ornstein said he verified with United executives that the airline was still trying to reach an agreement with Atlantic Coast before Mesa made its bid, otherwise Mesa would not have made the offer, he said."
2. "'With its low stock price, a takeover attempt is not surprising, especially by Mesa, which has been aggressive in trying to do takeovers in the past and to get more business from United,' [Blaylock & Partners L.P. airline analyst Raymond] Neidl said." (My emphasis.)
Regardless of whether this acquisition actually takes place, it's really not too difficult to see that United and Mesa are on the same wavelength in this effort, making the idea that Mesa will take ACA's feed over to the US Airways network seem rather silly.
1. "Ornstein said he verified with United executives that the airline was still trying to reach an agreement with Atlantic Coast before Mesa made its bid, otherwise Mesa would not have made the offer, he said."
2. "'With its low stock price, a takeover attempt is not surprising, especially by Mesa, which has been aggressive in trying to do takeovers in the past and to get more business from United,' [Blaylock & Partners L.P. airline analyst Raymond] Neidl said." (My emphasis.)
Regardless of whether this acquisition actually takes place, it's really not too difficult to see that United and Mesa are on the same wavelength in this effort, making the idea that Mesa will take ACA's feed over to the US Airways network seem rather silly.
767jetz
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- Aug 20, 2002
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Busdrvr, Cosmo, Fly, FlyingHippie, & all,
You're wasting your breath. (Or at least your keystrokes) The more good news that comes out in UA's favor, the more wild the speculation becomes.
Don't ever expect an answer to questions like "How does Duane Woerth know anything of UA's business plan?" or "Why would Orenstein publicly emphasize his intent to strengthen ties with UA?"
You people know the routine by now. Anything pro-UA is OBVIOUSLY just a public statement to throw people off, and anything anti-UA is OBVIOUSLY factual. And it's all tied to a Secret Transaction that will see USAir picking at the carcass of UA while they start trans-orbital trips to the moon in the next generation space shuttle. (Which of course will see USAir as the launch customer and Chip Munn closely working with management doing the proving runs. He's obviously already been there, you know
)
Look, incase you people haven't figured it out yet, 'you-know-who' just posts this stuff hoping some of us might inadvertently spill some proprietary info (from a real UA source) that he can run ASAP to US management. The fact is they are grabbing at straws and the Spinster is on a desperate fishing expedition.
Just be careful what you post!
Jetz
You're wasting your breath. (Or at least your keystrokes) The more good news that comes out in UA's favor, the more wild the speculation becomes.
Don't ever expect an answer to questions like "How does Duane Woerth know anything of UA's business plan?" or "Why would Orenstein publicly emphasize his intent to strengthen ties with UA?"
You people know the routine by now. Anything pro-UA is OBVIOUSLY just a public statement to throw people off, and anything anti-UA is OBVIOUSLY factual. And it's all tied to a Secret Transaction that will see USAir picking at the carcass of UA while they start trans-orbital trips to the moon in the next generation space shuttle. (Which of course will see USAir as the launch customer and Chip Munn closely working with management doing the proving runs. He's obviously already been there, you know
)Look, incase you people haven't figured it out yet, 'you-know-who' just posts this stuff hoping some of us might inadvertently spill some proprietary info (from a real UA source) that he can run ASAP to US management. The fact is they are grabbing at straws and the Spinster is on a desperate fishing expedition.
Just be careful what you post!
Jetz
Cosmo
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- Aug 20, 2002
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OK, let's see if I've got this straight. Chip's "secret source" doesn't work for US Airways or anyone else in the airline industry. But he's still a knowledgeable "insider" (Chip's word, not mine). So the only real option left is that this source is an investment banker.Chip Munn said:
But here's the rub -- Mesa has already said that their financial advisor for this acquisition is Merrill Lynch. So if Chip's source works for ML, he's really jeopardizing their deal because Ornstein wouldn't hesitate for a second to fire ML if he found out one of their employees was leaking information about the acquisition, especially to somebody who will immediately post it on an Internet BB. Thus, it's unlikely that this person works at ML. And if Chip's source doesn't work for ML, he doesn't know any more about the details of the acquisition than any of the rest of us reading this thread. So I wouldn't put a great deal of credence into the "thoughts" of Chip's source. JMHO.
I'm reminded of that wonderful Wall Street adage regarding information about pending deals that goes something like "Those who know don't talk, and those who talk don't know." IMHO, that sentiment is appropriate to this situation.
Chip and his secret sources...Good Lord.!!
I'm willing to bet his sources are the same ones that told Hitler the D-day landings in June 1944 were going to take place at Cherborg..or the Pont de Calais.
Does anyone else suspect that Chip is being used as a source of a grand mis-information campaigne?
Regards,
General Dwight D. Eisenhower (Ike)
I'm willing to bet his sources are the same ones that told Hitler the D-day landings in June 1944 were going to take place at Cherborg..or the Pont de Calais.
Does anyone else suspect that Chip is being used as a source of a grand mis-information campaigne?
Regards,
General Dwight D. Eisenhower (Ike)
Light Years
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- Aug 27, 2002
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330Jetstew-
United Airlines already contracts with Mesa Airlines in DEN, where they are using Dash 8s to replace routes that used to be operated by Air Wisconsin Dornier 328s, and I believe some jets will come into the mix too.
United had previously had a messy divorce from a Mesa agreement in the late 90s, but like US, I guess they just cant resist those welfare labor costs, and took them back.
Now as for the rest of it, I dont know.
United Airlines already contracts with Mesa Airlines in DEN, where they are using Dash 8s to replace routes that used to be operated by Air Wisconsin Dornier 328s, and I believe some jets will come into the mix too.
United had previously had a messy divorce from a Mesa agreement in the late 90s, but like US, I guess they just cant resist those welfare labor costs, and took them back.
Now as for the rest of it, I dont know.
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