Merger Relief for American Airlines: April 24, 2012

[BoeingBoy]

I have every expectation that AA will emerge from BK as an independent company.

There was a time that you weren't shy about saying that DL was interested in AA (or at least parts thereof) or that if US put AA into play (a bidding war) that US couldn't outbid DL or even that a DL/AA merger wouldn't present any DOT/DOJ hurdles. Was that just more of the "Whatever You Can Do, DL Can Do Better" song and dance?

Jim

 

[WorldTraveler]

Since DL's CEO said they would be interested in the Latin America operations, esp. the MIA hub, it wasn't my idea. But it still doesn't change the fact that DL knows full well that there is a process and time when the creditors will be open to competitive bids and that this isn't it. That is why they fully recognize as does BA and TPG that if AA restructures on its own, DL will have to find its own way to grow Latin America and gain more slots to LHR.
I have NEVER said that a full DL/AA merger would occur or that it would not create antitrust issues; I have said that AA/US faces the same divestiture requirements regarding DCA that DL would face regarding LGA and JFK.

Let me reemphasize ONE MORE TIME the conditional IF saying that IF US starts a bidding war for AA, DL and BA separately or perhaps even together might act to bid, in part because they don't want to see US acquire AA. So would TPG. And so might AS, B6 or a host of other players - because AA controls an enormous amount of industry assets that make it very attractive to a takeover - but that still doesn't change that none of those parties may get the chance and that as much as AA labor is putting all kinds of pressure on AA mgmt, there is a very high likelihood that the non-labor creditors will proceed with the AA standalone plan - to the detriment of AA labor and US. And the BK process gives AA those rights.

I still believe that AA will restructure successfully and since so many people continue to stumble over conditional statements and multiple scenarios, I'll just leave it that I have every expectation that AA will restructure on its own - which means that DL and US and BA and TPG and anyone else will not be in a position to act.

 

[wings396]

You do realize that APA has been spending most of their time meeting with USAPA and Parker right? Based on what is being reported the APA leadership has ZERO faith in Horton & Co. with their standalone plan. It appears as if they are more focused on a merged AA/US, and they aren't even wasting their time with Horton anymore. I think that we have all been in this business long enough to know that the pilot group is the starting point for most negotiations, and this case is no different.

 

[robbedagain]

usa320pilot put on the us board an interesting article that the aa labor unions are beginning to tell creditors to look at the merger with us scenario

 

[wings396]

usa320pilot put on the us board an interesting article that the aa labor unions are beginning to tell creditors to look at the merger with us scenario

We can only hope they tell WT as well.........
But then again, he knows what's best for AA more than they do.
The only thing better than a big Delta, is a smaller American.

 

[gaucho99]

Let me reemphasize ONE MORE TIME the conditional IF saying that IF US starts a bidding war for AA, DL and BA separately or perhaps even together might act to bid, in part because they don't want to see US acquire AA. So would TPG. And so might AS, B6 or a host of other players

There won't be a bidding war. The likelihood that AA will do anything with anyone other than US is practically non existent and an eventual US-AA merger is almost certain to happen. The only question is when and who will be in charge.

 

[robbedagain]

goldman sachs apparently was told to stop work for dl about a month ago hmm seems that dl is notgoingto go forward with an aa. goldman sachs is attempting to talkwith investors in an aa us merger as it would create more value and return than a stand alone plan

 

[Veritas]

My guess is you really are worried, WT.

In the hour or so you've been posting replies this afternoon, your ranking score has climbed.

Not just by one or two, but by almost 20.

14:49:27 PM ~  3
15:41:27 PM ~  5
15:59:21 PM ~  4
16:21:20 PM ~  14
16:23:22 PM ~  18
16:25:21 PM ~  22

Funny how an approval can jump up so quickly Just how many people were browsing your posts in that quick 20 minute timeframe?....

With the new software, you can see who checked the "Like This" button. Seems as if WT "likes" his own messages.

 

[eolesen]

With the new software, you can see who checked the "Like This" button. Seems as if WT "likes" his own messages.

Yes, he does. He likes himself so much he will go blind from what I recall being told...

And it appears his alter-ego Spectator also likes WT. (Spectator has 0 posts, and the ID was created October 18th, 2011 at the height of a debate over DL's schedule cuts, where he was also getting slammed from all sides) .

If I've done the log parsing right, "spectator" has "Liked" WT some 683 times since then.

Nope, no conspiracy here. Just facts...

Spectator's Likes/Dislikes:

Total: 852

worldtraveler 683
eolesen 35
fwaaa 6
kev3188 33
boeingboy 29
700uw 6
wings396 6

There are a handful of others that Spectator has voted on, but it's really not all that important to point out anything else.

Oh, and I've got the logs. Just in case Spectator gets the notion to start "unliking" his own posts. Or should I say WT's posts. Never mind -- same thing.....

 

[eolesen]

With the new software, you can see who checked the "Like This" button. Seems as if WT "likes" his own messages.

And, just like with "spectator", WT has liked himself a long time... over 1000 times, which might be a forum record. I'm apparently the person he likes the least. Shocking, I know.

Total 1674							 											
3051-worldtraveler			  1044
1576-fwaaa							25
2509-eolesen							138
2415-jimntx							14	
206-wings396							17

Ralph Richardi used to quip "he who has the most data wins" when we were going thru the budget process and trying to justify headcount for gathering statistics....

I've suspected this was going on for months, and it was quickly dismissed by the repeat "Like/Unliker" as being nothing but a popularity contest. But Ralph's inspiration on pushing me to find data in the oddest of places seems to have paid off here.

I know, I should take the high road. But I have to admit this was the most fun ten minutes I've had all day.

Go see how many times I "like" myself, and get back to me in the morning, OK?...

 

[signals]

OK, it's official. This thread can be moved to the US forums, because it took a left turn at Alberquerque. It is soooo off topic.

 

[eolesen]

Fun's over -- admins took away the screen-name identifiers on the likes.... oh well. Glad I got screen-shots.

At least we can vote down as well as up again.

 

[Kev3188]

^ Kev3188 likes this... ^

 

[Phoenix]

And that doesn't change the fact that it's still your political trash!

One man's trash is another man's treasure I suppose, but snookered is still snookered no matter how you look at it.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Anyone who has read more than a couple threads on this forum knows that the campaign in which E now claims success is just the latest chapter in a struggle to ensure that all voices would have access to speak the truth on this forum. Specifically, several years ago EOlesen posted numerous times on this forum (the posts are still there) that he did not want anyone challenging him to have the last word in discussions. In the struggle for who whether that would be allowed to stand, E found his posts increasingly scrutinized on the basis of their content – and his credibility was challenged, not solely on the basis of their accuracy -which was often found to be anything but accurate – but also on the basis of his professional integrity, which he chose to publicly display.
While I have always approached my role on internet chat forums as one of speaking the truth on the subjects about which I know well, no matter how painful it might be, most people are able to walk away from an argument with their self-esteem intact.
But not all people.
For whatever reason, some people will defend their reputation to their death, no matter how wrong they may be.
For some people, being proven wrong is nothing short of the highest form of shame they can experience. Humiliation at the hands of someone else invokes responses that make most of humanity shudder.
During my lifetime, I have met people along the way who have been shamed by a parent, teacher, or peer in a relationship that permanently altered how those people view life. The pain of those types of relationships can permanently shape who that person is. Some are unwilling to let go of the humiliation which they suffered as a child and decades into adulthood live with hatred for the person who humiliated or shamed them, unable to forgive, unable to accept any type of criticism, and unable to trust a laundry list of people or organizations.
Shame is a powerful motivator – in the most negative sense possible.
Those who are motivated by shame cannot think logically or see the error of their own thoughts or actions.
What doesn’t change is that truth remains the truth, regardless of the filters thru which any of us attempt to limit it.
Truth is not subject to popularity and more often than not, truth will be inconveniently unpleasant to hear.
The truth will prevail and all the efforts to silence it don’t work – never has worked and never will.

I would have rejoined this thread earlier but I’ve been involved in a period of intense work activity. One of the projects on which I am working is with an organization that recently went through a merger but is now working through difficulties that arose because of differences in culture between those two organizations. Just like what we’ve seen in the airline industry, many stakeholders didn’t buy in to the need for the merger before it ever happened and now the organization is having to retrace its steps and rebuild the organization around the decisions that were made. Messy stuff.
The creditors and management of AMR spent years studying what has worked and what has not worked in the airline industry. With respect to mergers, there are VERY FEW success stories. It is therefore no surprise that AA’s mgmt and creditors have carefully looked at what works and what doesn’t work – and on that basis, they will choose a solution that builds on the strengths of AA without taking on baggage that has enormous potential to bring down the new organization.
The truth is that mergers are messy – esp. in the airline industry. There will be solutions suggested that solve short-term problems but which will only result in long-term problems which are far worse.
Some people will use every means possible to protect their power and prestige, even if it is clear to every other party that the result for the majority of people involved will only result in a suboptimal solution.
Some organizations and individuals fail because they cannot face the truth.
Thankfully, most individuals and organizations face the tough truth that they must confront and figure out how to survive and adapt, regardless of whoever’s prestige or power is threatened in the process.