Mda Pilot Class & Ted

[Cosmo]

Isn't it funny how we heard over and over again from 320 about how USAir "shunned" United, but from his own reports about "Project Minnow" Tilton was not interested in a deal. So the reality is that USAir was shunned by UA, when US knocked on the door and offered to swallow. (or was it gobble?)

According to USA320Pilot, the following constitutes discussions about "M&A activity" between the executive suites at United and US Airways:

Seigel: "Can we buy United?"
Tilton: "No!"

I think 320 has very selective memory.

I couldn't agree more!

 

[USA320Pilot]

What I find interesting in this debate is that shortly after I post a comment, the usual responders have a response almost immediately. Are you following me? Again, if my comments have no merit than why even waste your time and respond?

Can I help it if United and US Airways, old and new, hold corporate transaction talks? We have the 1995 merger attempt, the 2000 merger attempt, the AMR carve out, the domestic alliance, the UCT, the ICT (Project Minnow), the recent overture by Tilton to merged , which has rejected by Lakefield when he selected America West over United, and now discussions between Doug Parker and Glenn Tilton.

1. Who first said there was going to be the the 2000 US Airways - United merger when I briefed the US Airways ALPA MEC on the deal on March 3, 2000 during the meeting to decide whether or not to send out LOA 79 with a MEC recommendation?

2. Who first said there would be a United - US Airways AMR carve out on December 23, 2000, 17 days before the agreement between United, US Airways, and AMR was announced?

3. Did I make up the fact that RSA was interested in buying United assets for US Airways before US Airways' former chairman David Bronner confirmed my report in three separate interviews?

4. Did I make up the "Interesting Corporate Transaction" and then the news media broke the report on "Project Minnow", where US Airways was negotiating with United where the former Arlington-based carrier was in discussion to buy United assets?

Guess what? I'm not making up the potential TED or Pacific Division sale either. Will it occur? I do not know. Is it being discussed? Yesiree.

What's the United employee problem? Very poor ALPA fragmentation language, but guess why management sought such a deep employee scope concession? It's not my fault United ALPA negotiated the worst fragmentation language in the industry and gave management leverage to use, if necessary.

By the way, could any of the normal "nayayers" answer questions one through four above?

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[Fly]

Yawn


Who first said that planes would take off today? Big deal! :down:

 

[Bear96]

What fascinating insight into a truly demented mind.

 

[TheLarkAscending]

What I find interesting . . .

Apparently someone finds a lot of imaginary things interesting, which is precisely why a lot of contributors tend to respond with haste. Consider it a public service provided, en masse, to those uninitiated few that might trust a certain brand of :wacko: .

As for the "who first" nonsense: Anyone with the extra time and interest could dig up a track record (from various forums) and locate a plethora of things that were said first that ultimately proved out to be malarkey. Just ask around.

I second the yawn.

 

[Cosmo]

I'll reply to just one question -- I don't want to monopolize all of the fun!

4. Did I make up the "Interesting Corporate Transaction" and then the news media broke the report on "Project Minnow", where US Airways was negotiating with United where the former Arlington-based carrier was in discussion to buy United assets?

Already asked and answered (see post 143 on page 10 of this thread) by yours truly. To repeat:

That's revisionist history, and you know it. The news reports also mentioned that United told US Airways what it could do with its "Project Minnow" but you seem to overlook that aspect of the story. How could that be?

Yet another case of you ignoring the part of the story that doesn't match your biased viewpoint. Now there's a surprise!

 

[767jetz]

3. Did I make up the fact that RSA was interested in buying United assets for US Airways before US Airways' former chairman David Bronner confirmed my report in three separate interviews?


By the way, could any of the normal "nayayers" answer questions one through four above?

[post="309111"][/post]​

Thanks for saving some of the fun for me, Cosmo!

I'll take a stab at #3...

Nope. You didn't make that up. You did however make up all the speculation about United actually reciprocating Bronner's interest/desires/hopes.

SIMPLE SUMMARY: You were right about Bronner's wish. You were wrong that there was actually a chance that his hopes would become reality. Therein lies the dispute between those of us who know the truth, and you and your revisionist history.

Guess what? Even the most amateur industry follower could guess Bronner's desires. Everyone is, was, and always will be interested in buying United's assets, as they are considered the envy of the industry. How about telling us which airline would not want to buy UA assets, given the chance.

You love to use words like "potential" to leave yourself an easy out. Here's a news flash for you Sherlock... ANYTHING is possible. There is potential that the AWA aquisition of US will fall on it's face within a year and cause the new USAir to liquidate. There is also a potential that the world will come to an end tomorrow. Now that I've said it, if it doesn't come true I can still claim that I was right because both those statements are technically factual. (thanks to the word "potential")

See how it works?

But while we are on the subject of things you make up, how about the pages of speculation on United's "inability" to articulate a business plan? How many times did I tell you you were wrong about that before UA finally submitted their POR?

Or how about your speculation that United is unable to come up with exit financing? How many times did I say you were wrong before United announced the backing of the biggest financial institutions in the world?

What about your claims of UA missing DIP covenants, UA needing equity investors, and on, and on, and on? Do you deny writing endlessly about these and other so called "facts" that you claimed came from reliable sources, only to be wrong over and over again? Do you deny that at each turn you were told over and over again by me and many others that your statements were inaccurate and these events would not occur?

USA320(almostreserve)pilot, you are wrong far more than you are right. When you are right it is only about hopes and plans of others that never became reality, and never about anything of substance. Why should anyone believe you now?

So here we are again, with you making wild claims of asset sales by United, only to be told by me and others that your information is misguided at best. And a few months down the road when we are proven right and you are once again wrong, you will claim that you were right anyway since it was being "discussed."

Is the sale of UA assets being discussed? Proabably by those outside UA. ie: the competition.
Is it being discussed within United's executive suite? Maybe, maybe not.
Does it matter? Not at all
Will UA sell the Pacific or Ted? Barring a catastophic event such as terrorism, not a chance in hell. No way, no how. Sorry. Try again. That you can take to the bank, my friend.


What I find interesting is that every time a person disputes what you say, you come right back for the last word. If you are so sure you are correct, why not just say it once and let people dispute it? If our response has no merit, why waste your time beign so defensive?

What I also find interesting is your obsession with your former employer.

Things that make ya go hmmmmmm...

 

[RowUnderDCA]

You guys have a strange idea of 'fun!'

 

[UALDC767]

Yep...we need the additional cash.... :down:


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051006/cgth051.html?.v=23


Hmmm

2.8+ billion currently in the bank......plus 3 billion loan= 5.8+ billion cash.

Minus the oustanding DIP financing (which was never fully drawn depsite certain prognastications to the contrary nor were the DIP convenants ever violated!- again as some predicted)

Should leave us somewhere around 4.5-5.0 billion in the bank.

So yes by all means we need to sell Ted and the Pacific routes.

DC

 

[FWAAA]

Yep...we need the additional cash.... :down:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051006/cgth051.html?.v=23
Hmmm

2.8+ billion currently in the bank......plus 3 billion loan= 5.8+ billion cash.

Minus the oustanding DIP financing (which was never fully drawn depsite certain prognastications to the contrary nor were the DIP convenants ever violated!- again as some predicted)

Should leave us somewhere around 4.5-5.0 billion in the bank.

So yes by all means we need to sell Ted and the Pacific routes.

DC

[post="309493"][/post]​

Let's not get carried away. Your math is a bit fuzzy. Last I heard, UA had increased its DIP borrowings to about $1.7 billion, and that will have to be paid with the $3 billion of exit financing.

Of the current $2.8 billion of cash, just over $900 million is restricted cash, leaving UA with about $1.9 billion of unrestricted cash. $1.7 billion of which is gonna be repaid, leaving UAL with about $1.5 billion of unrestricted cash after the DIP loans are repaid. UAL may very well make it, but you're dreaming if you think UAL is gonna have $4.5 to $5 billion in the bank.

And this leaves aside for the moment whether UAL can afford to make the payments on that exit financing - at 450 basis points over LIBOR, and due in six years, it looks dicey.

I agree with you that UAL is NOT shopping its Pacific operations - the wannabe 747 captain notwithstanding.

 

[SVQLBA]

[snip] ...nor were the DIP convenants ever violated!- again as some predicted)

[snip]

[post="309493"][/post]​

To be fair, UA did have to renegotiate some of the DIP covenants around Dec/Jan

 

[UALDC767]

To be fair, UA did have to renegotiate some of the DIP covenants around Dec/Jan

[post="309514"][/post]​

I never claimed they didnt.....but we never violated what was negotiated.

DC

 

[UALDC767]

Let's not get carried away. Your math is a bit fuzzy. Last I heard, UA had increased its DIP borrowings to about $1.7 billion, and that will have to be paid with the $3 billion of exit financing.

Of the current $2.8 billion of cash, just over $900 million is restricted cash, leaving UA with about $1.9 billion of unrestricted cash. $1.7 billion of which is gonna be repaid, leaving UAL with about $1.5 billion of unrestricted cash after the DIP loans are repaid. UAL may very well make it, but you're dreaming if you think UAL is gonna have $4.5 to $5 billion in the bank.

And this leaves aside for the moment whether UAL can afford to make the payments on that exit financing - at 450 basis points over LIBOR, and due in six years, it looks dicey.

I agree with you that UAL is NOT shopping its Pacific operations - the wannabe 747 captain notwithstanding.

[post="309504"][/post]​

Ah whats a few hundred million here and there .....but even using your calcs....you got some math going on that makes me fuzzy....

3 billion in new financing minus the DIP of 1.7 billion (subject to debate how much UAL actually owes, my recollection is that UAL did NOT use all available funds.) equals 1.3 billion left over.

Add that to the 1.9 billion currently unrestricted, leaves 3.2 billion in the bank.

So how do you figure only 1.5 billion after the DIP is paid?

DC

 

[FWAAA]

Ah whats a few hundred million here and there .....but even using your calcs....you got some math going on that makes me fuzzy....

3 billion in new financing minus the DIP of 1.7 billion (subject to debate how much UAL actually owes, my recollection is that UAL did NOT use all available funds.) equals 1.3 billion left over.

Add that to the 1.9 billion currently unrestricted, leaves 3.2 billion in the bank.

So how do you figure only 1.5 billion after the DIP is paid?

DC

[post="309529"][/post]​

I'm talking unrestricted cash only - you know, the cash that UA can use (restricted cash is held to secure workers' comp obligations, credit card holdbacks, etc). That restricted cash remains restricted cash - exiting Ch 11 won't change that. It's basically unspendable.

The current unrestricted cash is about $1.9 billion. Much of that is owed to the DIP lenders (we can debate how much later after we get better numbers). Using my earlier $1.7 billion amount, only $200 million of that $1.9 remains after the DIP loans (and other amounts paid to exit BK) are paid. That leaves $1.3 billion of the $3 billion exit financing. $1.3 billion (remaining exit financing) plus $200 million of unrestricted cash equals $1.5 billion of unrestricted cash. Not as great as it sounds.

I may have overstated the current DIP balance - it may be closer to a billion or a billion three, not $1.7 billion. But we also have to add various amounts that are required to be paid to exit, and dunno how much those are right now.

Don't get me wrong - it is great news - much better than the gloomy alternatives that could have happened - but the new LCC has a pretty big bankroll right now too, and JetA continues to be very expensive, even as crude prices fall.

 

[USA320Pilot]

UAL must repay its $1.5 billion in DIP financing, which is normal in a "formal reorganization". US Airways did this in bankruptcy I. The $3 billion in debt financing decreases the strength of the balance sheet and could require other means to pay down a more leveraged balance sheet.

A bigger question is why was there no new equity investor and why is United taking on more debt?

Meanwhile, if my comments on UAL shopping assets have no value then why all of the emotion and constant rebuttal? Something to think about...

Regards,

USA320Pilot